USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[jaichind]

Something is wierd here

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Seems to report 46.4-43.2

but

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

reports 46.0-44.1

Both are for 10/30

Is the former the projection and later the raw data ?

[jaichind]

What is bizarre about this poll it shows a large lead for Trump among non-BA education voters but at the same time a large Clinton lead for those with income below 35K.  It seems the class divide this implies is that Trump carrying by huge margins HS/Some college voters that ended up in Blue collar/vendor/small business work.  The welfare claimant class is solidly behind Clinton and highly educated working in lower paying government/social roles are have huge margins for Clinton.  Highly educated high income bloc are for Trump overall.

So one way to read this poll if we are to believe it is that any one involved in distribution or receiving income from the government are for Clinton by huge margins with the rest for Trump by large margins.  I guess this sort of reading is another variation of the Romeny 47% comment.

[jaichind]

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?

Doing the math it would seem to be.  If Latino is 12% of the electorate and we add a 30% swing for Latinos would lead us to go from Trump 48 Clinton 43.2 to Clinton 46.8 Trump 44.4 which seems to be in line with other polls.  Of course other polls seems to indicate that Trump is not THAT far behind in the Latino vote.  So if we go for a 25% swing instead it is Clinton 46.2 Trump 45.