USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/19) Trump +0.6%
Trump: 44.2% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.6% (-1.0%)

The Donald's first lead since August 2nd.

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It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

That's my take on this. The convention bounce seems to have faded and we are at pre-convention levels with most polls. That's not just from this poll, but reading the basket of polls that have been released over the past week or so.

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Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month.

I don't think the blue avatars on here are "clinging to their junk tracking 'poll'" as you claim we are. We know what it means in context of the basket of polls. A Trump lead brings the aggregate back to roughly pre-convention levels for both sides.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

Says who?

Ummm. The poll if you look at it? It's a 7-day rolling average. 8/13 was the biggest bump/lead Hillary day on the poll. It's 8/20. Mathematically 8/13 was wiped off the poll today, since it's 8/14-8/20 now. The number of respondents, same thing.

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Fantastic!

Seriously made a clone to pat himself on the back. Sad!

Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/21) Trump +1.1%
Trump: 44.6% (-0.4%)
Clinton: 43.5% (+0.5%)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/22) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.7%)
Trump: 44.0% (-0.6%)

The lead goes back to Clinton.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/23) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton: 45.3% (+1.1%)
Trump: 43.2% (-0.8%)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/24) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.3% (-1.0%)
Trump: 44.0% (+0.8%)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/26) Clinton +1.3%
Clinton: 44.6% (+1.0)
Trump: 43.3% (-1.0)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/27) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.4)
Trump: 43.6% (+0.3)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/28) Trump +0.4%
Trump: 44.0% (+0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.6)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/29) Trump +2.8%
Trump: 45.1% (+1.1)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.4)

Clinton's lowest number and Trump's largest lead since 7/31.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/30) Trump +3.4%
Trump: 45.3% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.9% (-0.4)

The sample has been replenished a bit the past few days from 2,469 to 2,576.

Clinton voter intensity is down to 81.1 from a peak of 84.7 on 8/26, nearly matching Trump's number of 80.5.

It's safe to assume that Clinton's speech about Trump being a racist last week has yet to register in this tracking poll.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.

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Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?

We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them?



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think?

If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/1) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.0% (-1.0)
Clinton: 43.3% (+0.9)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/3) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/4) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 44.7% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)

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I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.

No. It's a data point. Like all other data points that I post here, good or bad for Trump.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/5) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (-0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (+0.9)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/6) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.1% (+0.5)
Trump: 43.8% (-0.5)

First Clinton lead since 8/27.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/7) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.5% (+0.4)
Trump: 43.4% (-0.4)

It will show as Clinton +2 due to rounding.