A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump?

[Sir Mohamed]

No, I was sure that Marco gets it, actually until early March. I thought that Rubio/Kasich would be the GOP ticket.

[Drew]

I predicted that it would be Jeb!!1 narrowly beating Walker for the nomination.

[Penelope]

No, I foolishly thought Jeb! until after the First Debate, I think. After that I had no idea. It didn't really set in for me that Donald would be the nominee until sometime in December.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Not at all. But with the way things are starting to play out with Hillary and the constant Terrorist attacks, I'm starting to think he has a VERY good chance to win the entire thing now.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I thought he was gonna be a 2012-style flavor of the month, collapsing shortly after Labor Day.
I didn't believe that Trump would be the nominee until South Carolina/Nevada.

[Inmate Trump]

Not at all.

I did not expect the party of Lincoln to stoop so low as to nominate an absolute danger to the nation. The GOP has shot themselves in the foot, and this is their true downfall. I, for one, will never support him, and will now never vote for the party that does.

I voted for George W. Bush, John McCain, and Gary Johnson in the last three presidential elections. This election, I am fully supporting someone I never thought I would: Hillary Clinton.

[IceSpear]

I thought it would be Walker from 2013 until he dropped out. After that, it was a crapshoot.

[MIKESOWELL]

LOL at the people voted yes. SERIOUSLY??

[Beet]

No, I had no idea who would be the GOP nominee. That being said, it's remarkable how consistent the objective data (polls) were on this.

[Skye]

O hell no.

[Xing]

Honestly, no. I thought he would fade, just like every other "joke" candidate, or that people wouldn't actually go through with voting for him, despite supporting him in the polls. By the time he won NH/SC, though, it was pretty clear that he really was going to win.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

No, I can only brag that I didn't think either Walker or Bush were likely to be nominated either.

[Figueira]

No, not until January of this year, honestly.

[RaphaelDLG]

No, because I believed whatever my Rice Krispies/Nate Silver told me.

[President Johnson]

No, I was sure Mr. Low Energy would do it.

[Phony Moderate]

No, but I began to seriously vote for Trump in those monthly "Who will be the GOP nominee?" polls around September or so.

[Tender Branson]

Sort of, yes:

He is the beer track candidate for the youngsters.  Would these people actually show up to vote though?

It's possible. People think Trump is an idiot or "dumb", when in fact he's relatively smart in running his campaign like a business person would. Trump knows "his folk" or segment of the GOP much better than the establishment types and what they want to hear. With his aggressive campaign talk he hits a nerve with at least 20% of the GOP electorate and this is unlikely to go away in the next months. Trump also understands that elections often works like retail business and that huge attention will also mean a lot of votes ... This further means that if he manages to stay in the news right up to the first primaries, then he could also bring large segments of the young/disinterested people to the polls, much like Obama did in 2007/08.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's what the forum was saying about the race in July of 2015:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215385.0

Also, here is the mid-July poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216001.0

and here is the early August one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216812.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sort of, yes:

He is the beer track candidate for the youngsters.  Would these people actually show up to vote though?

It's possible. People think Trump is an idiot or "dumb", when in fact he's relatively smart in running his campaign like a business person would. Trump knows "his folk" or segment of the GOP much better than the establishment types and what they want to hear. With his aggressive campaign talk he hits a nerve with at least 20% of the GOP electorate and this is unlikely to go away in the next months. Trump also understands that elections often works like retail business and that huge attention will also mean a lot of votes ... This further means that if he manages to stay in the news right up to the first primaries, then he could also bring large segments of the young/disinterested people to the polls, much like Obama did in 2007/08.

What's weird is how Trump's support by age group completely flipped.  In the summer/early fall of 2015, he was doing better among youngs than olds (among Republican primary voters that is...obviously that is an older group than the general population...but within that group he was skewing young).  But then it started to shift, and by primary season he was getting a disproportionate share of his support from olds.

[wolfsblood07]

Absolutely not.  I predicted many times that Trump would not come anywhere close to winning the nomination.  
The last time I predicted Trump would lose was the night he came in 2nd in Iowa.  But 2 minutes later I realized that the Iowa results were excellent for Trump.  He beat everyone in the field except for Cruz, and Cruz was hated by the establishment even more than Trump.  It was clear that Cruz, as a religious conservative, was a regional candidate, appealing mostly in Texas and a few southern and Midwestern states.  And Rubio never appealed to anyone, even I found him to be an empty suit although I agreed with him on issues.  I was hoping Rubio would gain traction but of course, he never did.  And then we had people in the media confidently predicting that Trump could not win a majority of delegates which turned out to be utter nonsense.  

[Hermit For Peace]

 I always thought the GOP had more sense than that. Not the first time I've been wrong.