Pew: Clinton +9

[Devout Centrist]

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/vote-preference-over-time/
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-to-resume-oil-exports-but-analysts-skeptical-2016-7

Just read this Business Insider article and the Pew poll came to mind.

It noted Romney led whites 18-49 by 7. Trump is only leading this group in Pew (white nonhispanic) by 1.

Specifically white women 18-49 have gone from R+2 in 2012 to D+17. White men 18-49 have moved insignificantly from R+14 to R+17.

White men 50+ have swung 8 points to Trump while white women 50+ have swung 15 to Clinton.

All signs point to a large Clinton win, but the headline numbers. Weird.

[Devout Centrist]

Pew poll for June 2004 indicates a 48-46 advantage for Bush, once again nailing the margin of victory. Obviously, past success is no gurantee of future success, but this is a solid trend over the past three cycles.