A Big Day for Polls: Colorado leaves "Closest Races", Trump closest in Month

[Sorenroy]

Many polls have come out today, and most of them seen to point towards a much tighter race then we've seen in some time. On 538's website, Trump has made it back to a 1/3 chance of winning for the first time in nearly 30 days but at the same time, a new poll out of Colorodo has shifted that state out of their group of closest races, pushing it from a 60-40 chance of Clinton winning to a 70-30 Clinton chance. This has also shifted it from the fifth most likely state to flip to the tenth.

[Ljube]

Colorado was never going to be one of Trump's states.

[ProudModerate2]

I had indicated that trump would probably get a small bump in the polls from the FBI Director Comey statement.
Nothing unexpected here.

The question is will trump get an additional "bump" from the R Convention next week ?
..... or will the convention be a disaster/circus with massive drama, where he falls in the polls ?
Or, will he come out of the convention without the nomination ? (Ljube's favorite scenario.)

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Trump 100% needs to win Pennsylvania now.

[Ljube]

Trump 100% needs to win Pennsylvania now.

That was always true.

[Xing]

Let's not just to conclusions based on one day of polling. I do agree that PA is more likely to go for Trump than CO, but one 13-point lead for Hillary in CO doesn't automatically make it Safe D, and one Trump +6 poll in PA doesn't make it Lean R. It's amusing to see this from both sides:

"LOL, look at all the red/blue avatars calling this poll junk because they don't like the results!"

Followed by this on another thread:

"What!? No way is Trump/Clinton leading by that much! Junk!"

[ProudModerate2]

Let's not just to conclusions based on one day of polling. I do agree that PA is more likely to go for Trump than CO, but one 13-point lead for Hillary in CO doesn't automatically make it Safe D, and one Trump +6 poll in PA doesn't make it Lean R. It's amusing to see this from both sides:

"LOL, look at all the red/blue avatars calling this poll junk because they don't like the results!"
Followed by this on another thread:
"What!? No way is Trump/Clinton leading by that much! Junk!"

Very true.
But I do feel that the poll indicating a 13-point lead in CO does seem rather high (though I do believe Hillary leads by a small margin).
And the new Quinnipiac polls for trump in FL/OH/PA, seem lopsided in his favor. These polls at most should be near even, or possibly a tiny lead by Hillary.
But I'm sure there will be more polls soon, so we will see what happens. Story to-be-continued.

[Senator-elect Spark]

He doesn't have to worry about CO anyway. All he needs are PA, OH, & FL to win the presidency. Colorado has a high number of Hispanics it is expected.

[This account no longer in use.]

Fools. Colorado is safe R; they hate Hillary over there.

[Likely Voter]

There have been a lot of polls out in the last few days, but not all were done entirely or partially post Comey. Nationally the seven post-Comey press conference polls have it at Clinton +4.4.  Looking at the state polls you have the following averages...
 
FL   T+5   Quinnipiac, JMC
IA   --   Monmouth, Marist, Gravis
PA   C+1   Quinnipiac, Marist
OH   C+2   Quinnipiac, Marist
NV   C+4   Monmouth
WI   C+6   Marquette
VA   C+7   Fox
CO   C+10   Monmouth, Harper, Fox

Nothing from NC and NH, but a good guess would be Trump a little ahead in NC and behind in NH.

So Clinton is still favored but not as favored as she was two weeks ago, but then again it is just a snapshot with just a few pollsters and of course this week we have the Bernie endorsement which may have an effect we havent seen yet. Then we will have the Trump VP announcement, RNC, Clinton VP announcement and DNC.  And there is still the fallout from Dallas and other shootings and how the candidates are reacting. With so many things going on in July it is going to be hard to sort out how each event is effecting the polls and maybe they wont really settle down until early August.
   

[Devils30]

You can probably throw the Florida Q poll in the trash too...Clinton +3 there seems logical right now.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The last time the Republicans won the White House without Colorado was in 1908 with Taft.
Edit: Same with Nevada.

[CactusJack]

I just don't see it happening for Trump in PA. His best shot is the 2004 Bush v Kerry map only with Colorado going to Hillary

NC AND Virginia however is going to be very difficult for Trump to take both. It was a heck of a lot easier for Bush

[CactusJack]

There have been a lot of polls out in the last few days, but not all were done entirely or partially post Comey. Nationally the seven post-Comey press conference polls have it at Clinton +4.4.  Looking at the state polls you have the following averages...
 
FL   T+5   Quinnipiac, JMC
IA   --   Monmouth, Marist, Gravis
PA   C+1   Quinnipiac, Marist
OH   C+2   Quinnipiac, Marist
NV   C+4   Monmouth
WI   C+6   Marquette
VA   C+7   Fox
CO   C+10   Monmouth, Harper, Fox

Nothing from NC and NH, but a good guess would be Trump a little ahead in NC and behind in NH.

So Clinton is still favored but not as favored as she was two weeks ago, but then again it is just a snapshot with just a few pollsters and of course this week we have the Bernie endorsement which may have an effect we havent seen yet. Then we will have the Trump VP announcement, RNC, Clinton VP announcement and DNC.  And there is still the fallout from Dallas and other shootings and how the candidates are reacting. With so many things going on in July it is going to be hard to sort out how each event is effecting the polls and maybe they wont really settle down until early August.
   

Sadly, the massacre in Nice too, which Trump may get some traction from regarding his Muslim/Immigration stance.