IN-GOV: Which Republican replaces Mike Pence if he is selected as Trump's VP?

[JMT]

While it's far from guaranteed that Mike Pence will be Trump's VP, it certainly looks like it is a real possibility. Under Indiana state law, Pence is not allowed to run for Vice President and Governor at the same time. So, assuming Pence is offered the VP position and he accepts the offer, who replaces Pence as the Republican nominee for Indiana Governor? My guess is that the state Republican party selects Rep. Todd Rokita as the nominee, and Lt. Gov Eric Holcomb remains as the Lt Gov nominee.

[Heisenberg]

Greg Ballard, unless he's taking on Donnelly in two years.

[JMT]

Also, another thought to consider: Does this race remain competitive with a new Republican leading the ticket? Does John Gregg still have a chance at winning if he's facing a different Republican? I think the race will remain competitive, but Gregg will have a harder time winning without Pence on the ballot, considering a large part of his campaign has been based on running against Pence specifically.

[Suburbia]

Eric Holcomb, the Lieutenant Governor of Indiana.

[tmthforu94]

Eric Holcomb and Greg Ballard are the clear frontrunners, though Lloyd Winnecke and Todd Rokita are dark horse picks and both seem to be interested. My preference is for Winnecke, though in a perfect world, I would love to see Skillman come out of retirement and run. Winnecke has been a relatively moderate mayor who I think would keep Indiana out of the spotlight on social issues - he is much more of a Daniels than a Pence.

[Maxwell]

I'm kind of shocked by how fast Holcomb has risen despite not really doing anything.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm kind of shocked by how fast Holcomb has risen despite not really doing anything.

It's because of his connections to Mitch Daniels, I thought.

[libertpaulian]

If Pence is picked as the VP and a decent choice is selected, the Dems should forego this race and pour all of their resources into North Carolina.  That will be the YUGE governor's race and the real test to see if social conservatism can be defeated in the South.

[Heisenberg]

I'm kind of shocked by how fast Holcomb has risen despite not really doing anything.

It's because of his connections to Mitch Daniels, I thought.

He's also previously served as the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party and as Dan Coats's chief of staff.

If Pence is picked as the VP and a decent choice is selected, the Dems should forego this race and pour all of their resources into North Carolina.  That will be the YUGE governor's race and the real test to see if social conservatism can be defeated in the South.

Yes, that would be very interesting and entertaining. The Democrats are fighting in Indiana primarily as anti-Pence. I know North Carolina isn't as conservative as other Southern states, but it's still considered to have a social conservative lean, and this governor race will be a major test. It's been trending Democratic and the governor's race this year is a major battle in the so-called "culture wars" which will be an important indicator of sure that state stands today.

[Maxwell]

Nah. Indiana deserves a non-terrible Governor too.

[Heisenberg]

If Greg Ballard went against John Gregg he would win by an over 5%-10% margin. I also think that if Mike Pence is indeed the VP nominee and he loses as expected then he could have a comeback against Donnelly in 2018.

He could run against Donnely, but he'd be a little too risky. Nevertheless if that were to happen, he'd probably go for the seat and get the nomination.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly the only way Donnelly survives is if another Murdock is nominated.

[libertpaulian]

Greg Ballard, unless he's taking on Donnelly in two years.

Ballard would be disastrous.  All the IN Dems would need to do is keep running ads showing how crime went up in Indy during his tenure as mayor.

[Heisenberg]

Greg Ballard, unless he's taking on Donnelly in two years.

Ballard would be disastrous.  All the IN Dems would need to do is keep running ads showing how crime went up in Indy during his tenure as mayor.

I thought he was very popular and successful?

[Bismarck]

Holcomb is the most likely but I've heard that Rokita wants it as well. I would very much prefer Holcomb.

[Heisenberg]

Holcomb is the most likely but I've heard that Rokita wants it as well. I would very much prefer Holcomb.

I think it would make more sense that the Lt. Governor gets the nomination, and he chooses a new running mate. But that's not how it works. And yes, Todd Rokita is very interested. Then, the question becomes, who replaces him as the nominee for his House seat.

[libertpaulian]

Greg Ballard, unless he's taking on Donnelly in two years.

Ballard would be disastrous.  All the IN Dems would need to do is keep running ads showing how crime went up in Indy during his tenure as mayor.

I thought he was very popular and successful?

He was successful and popular in many ways, yes.  However, crime was his major Achilles Heel.  

If law and order becomes one of the Trump campaign's major themes post-convention, the Democrats could turn that around here in Indiana by claiming that Ballard didn't live up to that theme due to the city having record numbers of murders during Ballard's second term.

[libertpaulian]

To be quite honest, assuming Pence is picked as the VP, I think the Indiana Democrats should forego this race and rest on their laurels until 2024 (meaning in 2020 they will run a purely token opposition candidate).  Mayor Hogsett will have completed his second term by then, and assuming Indianapolis' crime problem is under control and the city is running excellently (it should be), he would be a top-tier pick for the Democrats and would be a force to be contended with.  Hell, I'd consider voting for Hogsett for Governor if he proves to be an effective mayor.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Honestly the only way Donnelly survives is if another Murdock is nominated.

While Democrats always face an uphill battle in Indiana, especially in off-year elections, this is clearly an exaggeration (for now, at least). Donnelly's current approval rating is 48%, double his disapproval numbers and statistically even with Coats (Source). Depending on how the next two years go, he could very well win in a squeaker - though I agree that he faces an uphill battle.

[Horsemask]

I would think Eric Holcomb

[publicunofficial]

Unless Pence is replaced on the ballot with Mitch Daniels, I think Indiana is still no worse than toss-up. Gregg is a strong opponent in his own right, and will have a fundraising head start over the GOP nominee.

[windjammer]

Honestly the only way Donnelly survives is if another Murdock is nominated.

While Democrats always face an uphill battle in Indiana, especially in off-year elections, this is clearly an exaggeration (for now, at least). Donnelly's current approval rating is 48%, double his disapproval numbers and statistically even with Coats (Source). Depending on how the next two years go, he could very well win in a squeaker - though I agree that he faces an uphill battle.

^^^^^^^

Donnelly has some appeal in the South (full of conservadems) and I guess in the north as well, the district he represented. While I think he's going to lose, going to be a tough fight, he won't get blanched.

I agree with this. Donnelly is definitely more likely to win than McCaskill and Manchin.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Should go to Stutzman. Why can't Indiana have a Matt Bevin type. His only crime was not bowing to Bohner in the speaker vote (something that merits high praise from me). I respect Rokita but Stutzman needs to get this one.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Should go to Stutzman. Why can't Indiana have a Matt Bevin type. His only crime was not bowing to Bohner in the speaker vote (something that merits high praise from me). I respect Rokita but Stutzman needs to get this one.

Stutzman would lose to Gregg.

[Miles]

Personally, I hope Brooks comes out on the losing end of this after all the outrage she feigned towards Hillary at the Benghazi hearing (and I'm not a huge Hillary supporter, either).