Democracy Corps: Republicans ahead in NV/AZ/PA, Democrats barely ahead elsewhere

[MT Treasurer]

Nevada (Clinton 44%, Trump 44%)

Joe Heck (R): 46%
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D): 41%

Arizona (Clinton 39%, Trump 45%)

John McCain (R, inc.): 44%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 42%

Pennsylvania (Clinton 45%, Trump 36%)

Pat Toomey (R, inc.): 46%
Katie McGinty (D): 38%

Ohio (Clinton 41%, Trump 41%)

Ted Strickland (D): 43%
Rob Portman (R, inc.): 40%

New Hampshire (Clinton 41%, Trump 41%)

Maggie Hassan (D): 47%
Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.): 46%

North Carolina (Clinton 48%, Trump 38%)

Deborah Ross (D): 38%
Richard Burr (R, inc.): 36%

Wisconsin (Clinton 44%, Trump 32%)

Russ Feingold (D): 46%
Ron Johnson (R, inc.): 45%

http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for-release-1.pdf

[ElectionsGuy]

This whole thing is terrible, both on the presidential level and here. Russ Feingold ahead by 1 while Burr is losing?

[Kevin]

Junk poll!

[Heisenberg]

My analysis:

Nevada: This would be great news for Republicans! It's a left leaning poll, and while the presidential race is tied, Heck outperforming Cortez Masto is good.

Arizona: Looks like fool's gold as usual.

Pennsylvania: See Nevada (minus the presidential race being tied).

Ohio: As I suspected, Strickland has potential to outperform Clinton, and Trump/Strickland voters are not too hard to imagine.

New Hampshire: Fool's gold for Republicans.

North Carolina: I suspect this is totally junk. I can't imagine Clinton leading by that much, unless rural whites are breaking for her, and/or Never Trump Republicans are still unhappy with the Donald. I also can't imagine that many undecideds in the Senate race, especially since there aren't nearly as many in the presidential race.

Wisconsin: Far more undecideds in the presidential race than on the Senate race. I suspect the Republicans are all fully set on Johnson, and that 45 or 46 is his ceiling. The state is very polarized, but I think nearly all undecideds will break for Feingold. Johnson won't lose by double digits, but Republican groups are right to write him off.

[Xing]

All around nonsensical poll. Throw it in the trash.

[Ebsy]

Junk.

[Ebsy]

But really, taken together with the national horse race results, these Senate results are beyond absurd.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Toomey is up 8 in a poll that has Clinton up 9 and was paid for by Democrats. That race is over unless 2016 is 2008 all over again on the senate level, and even then it would be a Toss-Up at best.

[Ebsy]

Toomey is up 8 in a poll that has Clinton up 9 and was paid for by Democrats. That race is over unless 2016 is 2008 all over again on the senate level, and even then it would be a Toss-Up at best.

Or it's just a stupid poll that isn't worth reading into?

[Eraserhead]

Wisconsin better not be that close...