PPP: Clinton +4

[Gass3268]

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[Ebsy]

Bad news for Trump; PPP has had a significant Trump lean this cycle.

[Seriously?]

Bad news for Trump; PPP has had a significant Trump lean this cycle.

Bad news for Hillary! and all you red avatars, this race is yo-yoing back to where it was prior to the Bern no longer being felt.  Second poll today in the 2-4 point range.

[Fusionmunster]

Bad news for Trump; PPP has had a significant Trump lean this cycle.

Bad news for Hillary! and all you red avatars, this race is yo-yoing back to where it was prior to the Bern no longer being felt.  Second poll today in the 2-4 point range.

Uhm, in the past 2 days we've had 5 polls come out.

Fox News: +6 Clinton
YouGov: +5 Clinton
NBC/SurveyMonkey: +8 Clinton
PPP: +4 Clinton
QU: +2 Clinton

Pretty consistent with a +6 Clinton lead the average is showing right now.

[Seriously?]

Bad news for Trump; PPP has had a significant Trump lean this cycle.

Bad news for Hillary! and all you red avatars, this race is yo-yoing back to where it was prior to the Bern no longer being felt.  Second poll today in the 2-4 point range.

Uhm, in the past 2 days we've had 5 polls come out.

Fox News: +6 Clinton
YouGov: +5 Clinton
NBC/SurveyMonkey: +8 Clinton
PPP: +4 Clinton
QU: +2 Clinton

Pretty consistent with a +6 Clinton lead the average is showing right now.

That's roughly a 5-point lead, but narrowing. That 12-point Washington Post poll looks like it belongs in the trash heap.

[Fusionmunster]

Bad news for Trump; PPP has had a significant Trump lean this cycle.

Bad news for Hillary! and all you red avatars, this race is yo-yoing back to where it was prior to the Bern no longer being felt.  Second poll today in the 2-4 point range.

Uhm, in the past 2 days we've had 5 polls come out.

Fox News: +6 Clinton
YouGov: +5 Clinton
NBC/SurveyMonkey: +8 Clinton
PPP: +4 Clinton
QU: +2 Clinton

Pretty consistent with a +6 Clinton lead the average is showing right now.

That's roughly a 5-point lead, but narrowing. That 12-point Washington Post poll looks like it belongs in the trash heap.

I know how averages work. Im just saying its consistent with the polling we've gotten the last two weeks. I see 0 narrowing from any pollster except from Quinnipiac(they are the only pollster showing a tightening race). Even the PPP poll shows no movement from their last national poll.

[Xing]

Clinton was never going to win by double digits. This country is far too polarized for that. I'm perfectly content with a lead for her in the mid-single digits.

[Fusionmunster]

Clinton was never going to win by double digits. This country is far too polarized for that. I'm perfectly content with a lead for her in the mid-single digits.

People seem to forget that Obama's great "Hope and Change" landslide was only a 7 point win. 45% of this country wouldn't vote for Jesus if he didnt belong to the right political party. And on the flip side, 45% of this country would vote in a Ham Sandwich if there was a D or R in front of its name on the ballot.

[The Other Castro]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

[Sorenroy]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

It's this sort of stuff that proves the point that third party candidates are inflated in polls. It's just the "they're both so bad so I'll say whatever else 'cause that's at least funny/an alternative".

As you might expect, @smod2016 gets most of his support from the youngest age group (22% amongst people 18-29 years old).

Also, here's the link (if the thread author could add this to his post that would be great): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_63016.pdf

[IceSpear]

It's hard to tell definitively since there's been so much junk gumming up the works lately, but it's looking as though Hillary's post clinch bounce has started to recede.

Now, let us seamlessly transition from her being LBJ 2.0 to Martha Coakley 2.0 yet again!

[Eraserhead]

Looks about right.

[Maxwell]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

It's this sort of stuff that proves the point that third party candidates are inflated in polls. It's just the "they're both so bad so I'll say whatever else 'cause that's at least funny/an alternative".

As you might expect, @smod2016 gets most of his support from the youngest age group (22% amongst people 18-29 years old).

Also, here's the link (if the thread author could add this to his post that would be great): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_63016.pdf

The giant meteor probably has the best net favorable rating of the 3.

[IceSpear]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

lol, yeah. Johnson or Stein don't get significantly more support than Deez Nuts or any other joke candidate PPP puts in as a third option. Most "support" for them is just a generic "other" option. Which is exactly why their support will collapse by election day. Many people "supporting them" will simply stay home, skip the presidential ballot, or hold their nose and vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils.

[IceSpear]

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lol

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

lol, yeah. Johnson or Stein don't get significantly more support than Deez Nuts or any other joke candidate PPP puts in as a third option. Most "support" for them is just a generic "other" option. Which is exactly why their support will collapse by election day. Many people "supporting them" will simply stay home, skip the presidential ballot, or hold their nose and vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils.

I saw it mentioned yesterday: in October 2012 PPP decided to include Johnson and Stein in their Ohio poll. Johnson got 5% and Stein 1%.
On election day the results were Johnson  0,89% and Stein 0,33%.

[Chief Justice Keef]

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

First-past-the-post guarantees a two-party system, due to strategic voting. Even if the Libertarian Party and Green Party earn 5-10% of the vote this time around it's unlikely to have an impact in the legislature, which is what you need to become a legitimate party.

[Chief Justice Keef]

lol, yeah. Johnson or Stein don't get significantly more support than Deez Nuts or any other joke candidate PPP puts in as a third option. Most "support" for them is just a generic "other" option. Which is exactly why their support will collapse by election day. Many people "supporting them" will simply stay home, skip the presidential ballot, or hold their nose and vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils.

That's why I don't like FPTP voting in general. By forcing voters to choose between the "lesser of two evils", you force people to choose what they want less rather than what they actually want. It's a utilitarian system that isn't really utilitarian at all.

[Maxwell]

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

First-past-the-post guarantees a two-party system, due to strategic voting. Even if the Libertarian Party and Green Party earn 5-10% of the vote this time around it's unlikely to have an impact in the legislature, which is what you need to become a legitimate party.

Well that, and neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party have a message that actually reverberates with real party. Every country has a useless green party.

[Mr. Morden]

If the choices for President were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and a Giant Meteor hitting the earth which would you choose?

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 38%
Giant Meteor hitting the earth: 13%

but gary johnson and JILL STEIN are making real traction and now we'll have a 4 PARTY SYSTEM.

lol, yeah. Johnson or Stein don't get significantly more support than Deez Nuts or any other joke candidate PPP puts in as a third option. Most "support" for them is just a generic "other" option. Which is exactly why their support will collapse by election day. Many people "supporting them" will simply stay home, skip the presidential ballot, or hold their nose and vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils.

I saw it mentioned yesterday: in October 2012 PPP decided to include Johnson and Stein in their Ohio poll. Johnson got 5% and Stein 1%.
On election day the results were Johnson  0,89% and Stein 0,33%.

Right.  But then, what is the conversion table from polling #s on election day to actual support for 3rd party candidates?  Johnson got 1% in 2012, while Nader got 3% in 2000.  Were Nader's polling #s going into election day markedly above 5%?  I'd have to go back and take a look.

[Sorenroy]

I saw it mentioned yesterday: in October 2012 PPP decided to include Johnson and Stein in their Ohio poll. Johnson got 5% and Stein 1%.
On election day the results were Johnson  0,89% and Stein 0,33%.

Right.  But then, what is the conversion table from polling #s on election day to actual support for 3rd party candidates?  Johnson got 1% in 2012, while Nader got 3% in 2000.  Were Nader's polling #s going into election day markedly above 5%?  I'd have to go back and take a look.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_2000 It looks like it was pretty accurate on a national level. The most he got was 6% (back in June of that year), but in the final three months the highest he polled was 4%. The lowest was 2%.

[Mr. Morden]

I saw it mentioned yesterday: in October 2012 PPP decided to include Johnson and Stein in their Ohio poll. Johnson got 5% and Stein 1%.
On election day the results were Johnson  0,89% and Stein 0,33%.

Right.  But then, what is the conversion table from polling #s on election day to actual support for 3rd party candidates?  Johnson got 1% in 2012, while Nader got 3% in 2000.  Were Nader's polling #s going into election day markedly above 5%?  I'd have to go back and take a look.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_2000 It looks like it was pretty accurate on a national level. The most he got was 6% (back in June of that year), but in the final three months the highest he polled was 4%. The lowest was 2%.

Looks like Perot in '96 also pretty much matched his polling #s.  I mean, he was doing much better than 8% in the summer polling, but after the conventions, his polling was in the ~8% range up until election day, and he did in fact get 8% of the vote in the end.

So, sure, there's a good chance that the current polling #s for Johnson won't hold up into August, September, October.  But if he is getting 5% or 10% in polls in October, it's not clear if those #s will materialize on election day or not.  It could go either way.

[IceSpear]

The difference is that support for Perot was support for Perot. Most Johnson "support" is just as a generic "other" option.

[Mr. Morden]

The difference is that support for Perot was support for Perot. Most Johnson "support" is just as a generic "other" option.

I don't buy that distinction.  I'd say plenty of voters who voted for Perot basically saw him as a generic "other" option.