538 Model Megathread

[KingSweden]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

[bilaps]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

In this case it's ipsos national poll and also these FL polls not weighted too much to move the needle there for Clinton.

[Dr. Arch]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Swing states (everything between 10-90% in PP) (Trump odds- PP, PO, NC):

Georgia: 86, 80, 85
Arizona: 80, 76, 83
Iowa: 69, 66, 77
Ohio: 63, 61, 68
North Carolina: 63, 58, 63
Florida: 58, 55, 60
Nevada: 53, 54, 60
New Hampshire: 40, 40, 40
Colorado: 39, 38, 44
Pennsylvania: 31, 32, 31
Wisconsin: 30, 32, 34
Michigan: 30, 33, 35
Maine: 27, 31, 33
Minnesota: 26, 26, 24
Virginia: 25, 27, 25
New Mexico: 21, 21, 23 (Johnson has a 1-2% chance to carry NM)
Rhode Island: 16, 21, 25
Delaware: 15, 19, 19
New Jersey: 12, 15, 15
Oregon: 10, 12, 10

NE-01: 88, 86, 88
NE-02: 71, 69, 72
ME-02: 70, 70, 79

[Wells]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

[Wiz in Wis]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

The real issue is that there are a ton of really questionable polls out there, and he's including every single last one of them in the name of "more data=better"

Garbage in, garbage out.

[Xing]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

The real issue is that there are a ton of really questionable polls out there, and he's including every single last one of them in the name of "more data=better"

Garbage in, garbage out.

As I've said for a while, this is basically a glorified polling map.

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

In this case it's ipsos national poll and also these FL polls not weighted too much to move the needle there for Clinton.

The Ipsos looks like the main culprit. However, it was conducted mostly in the midst of Deplorables/Pneumoniagate, so perhaps the improvement since then will show up more in the coming days.

[bilaps]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

You are wrong. He wrote an article regarding that and he weights those tracking state polls from google and ipsos not too much.

[Dr. Arch]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

You are wrong. He wrote an article regarding that and he weights those tracking state polls from google and ipsos not too much.

Yep, but there are so much more of these trash polls being churned out that, even if he weighs them less, they eventually overwhelm the good pollsters, like Monmouth.

[bilaps]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

In this case it's ipsos national poll and also these FL polls not weighted too much to move the needle there for Clinton.

The Ipsos looks like the main culprit. However, it was conducted mostly in the midst of Deplorables/Pneumoniagate, so perhaps the improvement since then will show up more in the coming days.

Nope, it's 15-19 september. So starts thursday. It's during birther issue if anything

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Thank you. Wish I had seen this earlier.

[bilaps]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

You are wrong. He wrote an article regarding that and he weights those tracking state polls from google and ipsos not too much.

Yep, but there are so much more of these trash polls being churned out that, even if he weighs them less, they eventually overwhelm the good pollsters, like Monmouth.

I don't think that is the case. Would you give me an example? And Monmouth poll from FL was weighted less because of sample size.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Thank you. Wish I had seen this earlier.

It might be new; I just saw it the other day for the first time.

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

In this case it's ipsos national poll and also these FL polls not weighted too much to move the needle there for Clinton.

The Ipsos looks like the main culprit. However, it was conducted mostly in the midst of Deplorables/Pneumoniagate, so perhaps the improvement since then will show up more in the coming days.

Nope, it's 15-19 september. So starts thursday. It's during birther issue if anything

For some reason I thought deplorables/pneumonia was more recent... obviously it's not, as Sept. 11 was the start of the pneumonia issue. I stand corrected.

[bilaps]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Thank you. Wish I had seen this earlier.

It might be new; I just saw it the other day for the first time.

Don't know when it was introduced but it's there for at least a month.

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen's Upshot model on the New York Times has shown Clinton recovering the past couple days. Currently gives her a 75%, up from the low 70's. I find there differences fascinating, especially right now.

[KingSweden]

Nate Cohen's Upshot model on the New York Times has shown Clinton recovering the past couple days. Currently gives her a 75%, up from the low 70's. I find there differences fascinating, especially right now.

I think RCP is a good happy medium too since even though it includes some sketchy polls it doesn't do a ton of weighting or adjusting

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

This has been puzzling me too, since the recent Trump surge seems to have peaked, but his chances keep getting better on 538.  Meanwhile, the Upshot model (which is generally slower to move) has tracked the poll movement pretty closely.  During the surge, Clinton's win probability in Upshot dropped from near 80% to 73%, but it's recovered in the past couple of days to 75%.

I'm starting to wonder if Nate Silver has tried to do too much in his models, and they're becoming less useful as a result.

[Gass3268]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

[bilaps]

I don't know how 538 adjustes polls? Anyone with an insight. Didn't read topic from the start, maybe I should try that before asking but if someone wants to help right away...

[elcorazon]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

This has been puzzling me too, since the recent Trump surge seems to have peaked, but his chances keep getting better on 538.  Meanwhile, the Upshot model (which is generally slower to move) has tracked the poll movement pretty closely.  During the surge, Clinton's win probability in Upshot dropped from near 80% to 73%, but it's recovered in the past couple of days to 75%.

I'm starting to wonder if Nate Silver has tried to do too much in his models, and they're becoming less useful as a result.

maybe some of the better Clinton polls are fading in weighting as they get older, and even though some polls are showing a rebound by Clinton, the overall polling is still showing a very close race which keeps pushing the ultimate results closer to 50/50, especially as the more Clinton favoring polls get further back in time.

[dspNY]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

Polls only should have Clinton ahead in FL and its jacked up if they don't...which would improve her win % substantially

[bilaps]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

Well, it has sense in this way. One of those polls which is weighted highest is adjusted to Trump +1, one was adjusted to Clinton +1 or +2 i forgot and Monmouth was adjusted slightly to Clinton +4 but is weighted less cause of samle size. So, when you look top 6 weighted polls, you have Trump up in 3, one tie and Clinton up in 2.

Again I don't know why he adjusted for example Siena poll from Clinton up 1 to Trump up 1 but with those adjustments and weighing it's clear why Trump has better chances.