538 Model Megathread

[Gass3268]

One more big poll like we got to day and she'll probably go over 80% in the polls-plus model.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's the "pecking order" of Romney states:

Polls-Plus

1. North Carolina
------------------- 50% line
2. Nebraska CD2
3. Georgia
4. Arizona
------------------- 25% line
5. Missouri
6. South Carolina
7. Nebraksa CD1
8. Montana
9. South Dakota
10. North Dakota
11. Alaska
12. Mississippi
13. Texas
14. Indiana
15. Utah

Trump's 25% line is between Ohio and Pennsylvania

Polls only

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Nebraska CD2
--------------------- 50% line
5. South Carolina
6. Missouri
7. Texas
8. Mississippi
9. Nebraska CD1
10. South Dakota
11. Montana
12. Alaska
--------------------- 25% line
13. North Dakota
14. Indiana
15. Utah

Trump's 25% line is between North Carolina and Ohio

Now cast

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Nebraksa CD2
4. Arizona
5. South Carolina
--------------------- 50%
6. Missouri
7. Texas
8. Alaska
9. Nebraska CD1 (29.1)
10. South Dakota
11. Mississippi
12. Montana
13. North Dakota
---------------------- 25%
14. Indiana
15. Kansas
16. Utah

Trump's 25% line is between Georgia and North Carolina

In the now-cast, Clinton is more likely to win Wyoming than Trump is to win the Electoral College.  He has a 10% chance in OH and NH, which is worse than Clinton's 11% chance in AR and NE at large.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Since polls during and right after the convention are weighed less in polls-only and polls-plus, we're going to see those maps turn a lot bluer if things keep going this way.

[Holmes]

South Carolina back to lean R on the nowcast. That was fun while it lasted.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Remington/Missouri poll pushed South Carolina back to the D column with 51.8% on Nowcast. I have a feeling one solid poll from North Carolina will put her over 80% on Polls-Plus.

Since this morning, her chances have increased 5% across all models

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kind of hilarious to see Trump with only eight states with double-digit leads projected in the polls only.

[LLR]

On one of the models, his (Trump's) top state is NE-3.

[Devout Centrist]

South Carolina back to lean R on the nowcast. That was fun while it lasted.

Back to lean D.

[evergreenarbor]

On one of his models, his top state is NE-3.

That sounds about right. I think it may end up being the most Republican state/congressional district this year, since Trump will do poorly in Utah and Wyoming will be a good state for Johnson.

[hopper]

What model did Silver use in 2012? Polls-Plus, Polls-Only, Or Now Cast? I thought he only used one model in 2012.

[BlueSwan]

What model did Silver use in 2012? Polls-Plus, Polls-Only, Or Now Cast? I thought he only used one model in 2012.

I believe it was one model that included "fundamentals" early on, which were gradually phased out as the election date approached.

[Dr. Arch]

"Now-cast" has HRC at 96.4%, "Polls Only" at 87.5%, and "Polls Plus" at 79.5%. It's looking very promising as election day nears.

Some interesting notes, SD is now at 30% for HRC, while MO is about to flip in the now cast. In Polls Plus, FL is almost at 70% for HRC and NC is nearing 60%, while AZ and GA are in the mid 30s. What are considered to be the traditional swing and lean states are far gone in all models.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

By tomorrow afternoon, I expect her to reach >80% on Polls-plus. Wondering if she'll ever hit 100% on the Now-cast

[Gustaf]

What model did Silver use in 2012? Polls-Plus, Polls-Only, Or Now Cast? I thought he only used one model in 2012.

I think all the models will tend to converge as the election approaches.

[Lachi]

Can anyone see the now-cast at the moment? The site breaks for me when I try to get to it.

[Speed of Sound]

Can anyone see the now-cast at the moment? The site breaks for me when I try to get to it.

94/6 to Clinton. SC, MO leaning Trump; AZ leaning Clinton; GA, IA, NC, NV all likely Clinton (~70-80%).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Any reason for the sudden across-the-board downtick for Clinton?  Were the recent batch of polls that bad?

[Sorenroy]

Hillary Clinton's 90th Percentile

Hillary Clinton — 407
Donald Trump — 131

Hillary Clinton's 99th Percentile

Hillary Clinton — 513
Donald Trump — 25

Hillary Clinton's 99.9th Percentile

Hillary Clinton — 538
Donald Trump — 0

Donald Trump's 90th Percentile

Donald Trump — 355
Hillary Clinton — 183

Donald Trump's 99th Percentile

Donald Trump — 426
Hillary Clinton — 112

Donald Trump's 99.9th Percentile

Donald Trump — 525
Hillary Clinton — 13

[Speed of Sound]

Maryland, you hero.

[Doimper]

Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

[Wells]

Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

Good for you.

[Dr. Arch]

Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

hahaha

[RaphaelDLG]

Seems too liberal for both.

[Angel of Death]

Anyone hazard a guess if and when Clinton will finally gain another state in the polls-plus forecast?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

PPP is releasing a Texas poll sometime by Wednesday. If that shows Trump underperforming, I can see South Carolina or Missouri getting much closer