PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI
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  PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI
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Author Topic: PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI  (Read 4913 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: June 27, 2016, 10:54:42 PM »

Several new battleground polls today:

AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2016, 10:59:43 PM »

Freedom numbers!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2016, 11:00:44 PM »

Ohio identical to Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a real battleground and will decide this election, regardless of what Axelrod says.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2016, 11:02:56 PM »

Confirms this is a moe race especially considering this is done for a liberal group
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Seriously?
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2016, 11:08:59 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 11:21:16 PM by Seriously? »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2016, 11:32:25 PM »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.

It's very ambiguous who benefits from LV vs. RV this cycle.  Also, PA always has a yuge D registration advantage over its PVI and I would expect that to be particularly true this year.  I agree with everything else.
It's just odd to me that PPP went RV instead of LV here. I think they've pretty much been LV in most of their polling, right?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2016, 11:32:56 PM »

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Yeah, Trump down by 5 in every state he needs to win and he needs all of them.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2016, 11:34:57 PM »

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Yeah, Trump down by 5 in every state he needs to win and he needs all of them.
Roughly within the MOE in a poll for a Dem-leaning PAC with RV instead of LV. At this point in the cycle, I'll take Trump in low-single digits and up in AZ. There's a lot of field left to play.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2016, 11:49:30 PM »

Trump takes 18% of dems in PA....but loses among independents.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2016, 12:20:57 AM »

Great numbers for Clinton.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2016, 12:26:32 AM »

Clinton does need to watch out for IA. Polls in IA weren't great for Obama in the summer of 2012, but it's still one that she doesn't have a firm grasp on. Overall, decent numbers for Hillary, especially in Ohio and Wisconsin. This poll also shows that, once again, Wisconsin is fool's gold for Republicans.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2016, 12:34:16 AM »

Looks about right.
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A Perez
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« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2016, 01:43:56 AM »

Obama increased his leads on all these states from June to November. None of the idiots in this board remember that, even the Democrats.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2016, 07:01:31 AM »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.
Love the Poll unskewing.  Worked out real well in 2012.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2016, 07:55:41 AM »

So much for Arizona being lean D....

The rest looks about right, though I'm surprised that Trump is so weak in OH. And no way Clinton is only up 4 in NH.

Only PPP has found her trailing in AZ. Other private/public polls have her ahead.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-arizona-president-trump-vs-clinton
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html
https://twitter.com/timodc/status/746111400985038849
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2016, 09:15:05 AM »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.

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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2016, 10:09:36 AM »

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Yeah, Trump down by 5 in every state he needs to win and he needs all of them.
Roughly within the MOE in a poll for a Dem-leaning PAC with RV instead of LV. At this point in the cycle, I'll take Trump in low-single digits and up in AZ. There's a lot of field left to play.

Hillary does better with LV than RV.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2016, 10:31:55 AM »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.



Confirms a horse race? Seriously...she leads national polling from anywhere between 6-12 points and most swing states - Ohio, PA, Florida, she leads by 4...sorry, but that isn't a "horserace."
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mds32
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2016, 11:54:55 AM »

PA won't be deciding this election while Clinton is leading by 5 in Florida.
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Reginald
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« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2016, 12:53:48 PM »

Not all that important, but PPP has weird partisan crosstabs. They continually show more Republicans for Clinton and Democrats for Trump than almost anyone else. Here it's particularly evident for OH Republicans (66-15 Trump) and PA Democrats (74-18 Clinton). The kicker is in Wisconsin, where the forum circlejerk is going on about #NeverTrump Milwaukee Republicans. PPP is actually showing Republicans here more supportive of Trump than ever (83-7).
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2016, 12:57:55 PM »

Serious question: is there a way to know which polls PPP does have an online component and which ones are IVR landline only?  When they added the online component in 2014 they said it was an option for clients to choose and it cost extra. Did UFC pay extra?
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Human
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2016, 01:22:41 PM »

These numbers look very accurate.
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Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2016, 03:24:38 PM »

So much for Arizona being lean D....

The rest looks about right, though I'm surprised that Trump is so weak in OH. And no way Clinton is only up 4 in NH.

Yeah, that Ohio number is a killer. Trump could possibly win without Florida or Pennsylvania or Virginia. He has no path without Ohio. I hope Clinton goes for the kill and locks down Ohio like Obama did.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2016, 06:09:20 PM »

Hell yeah!!!! Also stop thinking Trump is gonna win WI it's not gonna happen.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2016, 11:06:10 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2016, 11:13:56 PM by Seriously? »

Interesting results. It seems like these races are close, especially since it seems to be RV polls and not your typical LV polls done by PPP. Also no Johnson or TPs like PPP normally polls for. Not shocking because the client was a left-leaning advocacy group, so there's possibly a slight Hillary! lean.

Interesting that the samples were R+ in AZ (R+6), IA (R+2), NH (R+3) and OH (R+1), but D+ in PA (D+10) and WI (D+11). AZ and OH are at about the same turnout level as 2012. NH and IA are a few ticks slightly more Republican (R+3 IA, R+4 NH). PA and WI are off quite a bit. Both are D+9 from their respective 2012 Cook PVIs.

It pretty much confirms a horserace at this point in time.
Love the Poll unskewing.  Worked out real well in 2012.
Unskewing? Ummm. no. I was just deep diving into the numbers. You can't take these June polls too seriously. Where did I say.. Oh Trump is down 4 here, but he should really be up 1? That's unskewing.

If I were drinking the Kool Aid here, would I have pointed out that the IA and NH samples trended Republican a bit? Of course not.

It's a legit critique to ask why PPP was using a RV sample when they otherwise use a LV sample.

Obviously, if this was done for a left-leaning group, you have to take that into account.

With that said, I don't think the numbers are that far off of the state of where the race likely is if it's a Clinton 5-7 point national lead. If anything, WI is too pro-Trump, despite the favorable D sample.
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