AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11
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  AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11
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Author Topic: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11  (Read 2738 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: June 26, 2016, 10:07:16 AM »

47/36/8, to be precise.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 10:11:10 AM »

RIP 50 state landslide
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 10:12:24 AM »

Makes sense.

There's probably a trend back from Obama (who did terrible there) to Hillary.

It was R+28 in 2012 and based on current polling it's R+17 ...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016, 10:14:08 AM »

Weak!
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2016, 10:18:25 AM »

If this is the final margin, she might win AR-02
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 10:19:23 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 10:49:11 AM by President Johnson »

Nu surprise, though 9% for others is way too high. Big Don will win the state with at least 57% of the vote in November.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2016, 10:22:27 AM »

Another sign how far AR has moved to the GOP in the past 20 or so years:

In 2004, Kerry lost it by 10 and he lost by 2 nationally.

Now, Hillary (who was supposed to have a "home state" bonus there) is also down by 11, but ahead by 6 nationally.

So, AR was R+8 in 2004 and R+17 now, even with AR's "favourite daughter" on the ticket ...

Not as bad as in 2008 and 2012 with Obama though ...
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2016, 10:31:36 AM »

Another sign how far AR has moved to the GOP in the past 20 or so years:

In 2004, Kerry lost it by 10 and he lost by 2 nationally.

Now, Hillary (who was supposed to have a "home state" bonus there) is also down by 11, but ahead by 6 nationally.

So, AR was R+8 in 2004 and R+17 now, even with AR's "favourite daughter" on the ticket ...

Not as bad as in 2008 and 2012 with Obama though ...

A lot of voters in Arkansas won't even remember Clintons in the state, as that was mainly 83 - 92. That's almost 25 years ago. On top of that, Arkansas was already drifting away from Democrats before Clinton showed up. Now, it's really irrelevant who the Democrat is - Unless the candidate is massively popular and well-known in the state, "home state" advantages, if the candidate even gets one, isn't usually a bump so big that it could overcome the level of partisanship present in blue/red states.

That said, +11 isn't that bad for her there. Obama lost in AR by over 20 points in 2012, and just shy of 20 points in 2008.
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2016, 10:35:50 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2016, 10:46:12 AM »

Arkansas is so Republican these days that Clinton's ties as an Arkansas First Lady are the only thing keeping this within 11
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2016, 10:50:28 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2016, 10:55:53 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

I wasn't implying that she had a real chance in Alabama, just that Arkansas is even more Republican.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2016, 10:59:20 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

I wasn't implying that she had a real chance in Alabama, just that Arkansas is even more Republican.

I'm not sure, maybe at the national level. Arkansas had a Democratic governor until last year; and Mike Beebe was even reelected in the 2010 Tea Party wave with 64% of the vote. Quite stunning.
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2016, 11:01:48 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

I think Arkansas goes Democratic before Alabama with Clinton as the nominee. If it were Obama, Alabama would probably go Democratic first. More African-Americans than in Arkansas.
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2016, 01:12:18 PM »

Another sign how far AR has moved to the GOP in the past 20 or so years:

In 2004, Kerry lost it by 10 and he lost by 2 nationally.

Now, Hillary (who was supposed to have a "home state" bonus there) is also down by 11, but ahead by 6 nationally.

So, AR was R+8 in 2004 and R+17 now, even with AR's "favourite daughter" on the ticket ...

Not as bad as in 2008 and 2012 with Obama though ...

I think everyone here is aware of that.

Anyway, most polls in solid Republican states tend to underestimate Republican strength there. That is especially true for AR, TN and KY.
Let's not forget the polls that showed Pryor with competitive numbers.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2016, 01:38:57 PM »

I'm not sure, maybe at the national level. Arkansas had a Democratic governor until last year; and Mike Beebe was even reelected in the 2010 Tea Party wave with 64% of the vote. Quite stunning.

I think the platform/agenda any future Democratic presidents run on will probably make them unpalatable to Arkansas, but surprisingly Arkansas was one of the last states to fully flip to Republicans post-Obama. Even in 2009 - 2011, Democrats still had a large State House majority (72-28 D) and 27-8 D in the State Senate. Obama really finished off Democrats in the South.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2016, 03:10:26 PM »

Talk Business is trash. They had Mark Pryor competitive and even leading his race in 2014 when in reality he didn't even make 40%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2016, 03:13:55 PM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.
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Lachi
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« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2016, 07:23:37 PM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.
FTFY
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2016, 07:29:27 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 07:31:12 PM by TDAS04 »

She'll probably lose Arkansas by more than that.

Republicans do better in Arkansas than polls often indicate.  I was expecting a poll showing Hillary doing better than expected, but she'll handily lose the state in the end.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2016, 07:31:32 PM »

I think the increased level of polarization will make "home state effects" increasingly insignificant from here on out.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: June 27, 2016, 08:27:00 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

You think Clinton can win Georgia?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: June 27, 2016, 08:31:14 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

You think Clinton can win Georgia?

Probably not, but it's definitely "in play."
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: June 27, 2016, 08:32:41 AM »

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

You think Clinton can win Georgia?

Probably not, but it's definitely "in play."

I would say its about as in play as Wisconsin, that is to say it will be thought of as 'contested' but there was really no chance of the losing candidate winning.
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2016, 01:47:33 PM »

This is one of the Clinton beats Obama states but doesn't win, see also UT, WY, ID, KS
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