TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7 (user search)
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  TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7  (Read 1439 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: June 22, 2016, 05:07:00 PM »

Texans aren't accustomed to competitive statewide or Presidential races. Non-local politics in Texas must be duller than watching wet paint dry.

If Trump should win by 7 in Texas, then he's losing big nationwide. No state is analogous to Texas, which straddles regions. Even a combination of states? I was thinking perhaps of Kansas + Florida, but that model fails this time.

Parts of Texas vote like New Mexico (basically anything along the Rio Grande), parts like Mississippi (anything to the east of Greater Dallas and Greater Houston) , parts like Oklahoma (the Panhandle and the High Plains), parts like North Carolina (the area in the triangle between the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Greater San Antonio, and Greater Houston...)

If I had to put this poll anywhere I would have to put a tie on the binary map and a very pale shade of glue on the three-way map.

It may be a valid poll, but it gives no usable information.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2016, 09:27:37 AM »

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Yep, pretty much. If we cost him Texas I'd love his face on election day... but by then he'd have known he already loses.

I strongly invite Republicans who can't imagine voting for Donald Trump because he is a tribal demagogue or for Hillary Clinton because she is 'too liberal' to think carefully about what a vote for Gary Johnson means: that you want the Republican Party to return to a pro-business but otherwise even-handed orthodoxy in economics, that you want a Big Tent open to people of all ethnic and religious origins, that you like your politics rational, and that you want a Party that respects the capital that learning and imagination create.

If Donald Trump had opportunistically taken some liberal stances and run as a Democrat with the same level of demagoguery I would have to vote against him. Politicians who make contradictory promises cannot get satisfying results.

For someone whose primary choices for November were effectively Sanders, Clinton, Kasich, and Canada (I do not like the religious fanaticism and abrasive personality of Ted Cruz  I at least recognize the necessity of a strong two-party system to keep American politics and in turn economics honest with opportunity for all and not only the ruthless and connected.  This applies at both the state and federal level. Texas politics were better when they were competitive, when Texas could have both Lloyd Bentsen and Bill Clements.

I want to see Donald Trump defeated soundly -- so soundly that religious and ethnic bigots recognize that they have no chance in the American mainstream. I also want Republicans to recognize that Barack Obama did much right as President.
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,859
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2016, 09:40:55 AM »

Junk poll.

My bet for TX is the Trumpster winning with around 57-41%.

45-44-10. Hillary Clinton will do better with people who could never vote for Barack Obama because he is... you know... and make more gains among Hispanics than reduced participation by blacks will lose. The Democratic floor and the Democratic ceiling are close in Texas.

I expect to see lots of Johnson votes, especially in suburban areas around Dallas, Fort Worth,  and Houston. I wouldn't count on educated suburban voters to vote for Donald Trump.
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