TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7
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  TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7
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Author Topic: TX-Leland Beatty: Trump +7  (Read 1421 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: June 22, 2016, 04:38:52 PM »

37% Donald Trump (R)
30% Hillary Clinton (D)
3% Gary Johnson (L)

http://www.lelandbeatty.com/uploads/1/4/2/1/14214393/txg16beattypollresultsfinalresults.pdf
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 04:41:18 PM »

30%+ undecided? Is it really so hard for pollsters to push people for an answer?
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 04:42:29 PM »

Never heard of this pollster before. Hard to put any stock in this with so many undecideds.
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Green Line
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 04:44:51 PM »

Margin looks reasonable.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 04:52:15 PM »

Trash poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 05:07:00 PM »

Texans aren't accustomed to competitive statewide or Presidential races. Non-local politics in Texas must be duller than watching wet paint dry.

If Trump should win by 7 in Texas, then he's losing big nationwide. No state is analogous to Texas, which straddles regions. Even a combination of states? I was thinking perhaps of Kansas + Florida, but that model fails this time.

Parts of Texas vote like New Mexico (basically anything along the Rio Grande), parts like Mississippi (anything to the east of Greater Dallas and Greater Houston) , parts like Oklahoma (the Panhandle and the High Plains), parts like North Carolina (the area in the triangle between the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Greater San Antonio, and Greater Houston...)

If I had to put this poll anywhere I would have to put a tie on the binary map and a very pale shade of glue on the three-way map.

It may be a valid poll, but it gives no usable information.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2016, 05:16:21 PM »

Come on, push the leaners. 30% undecided? I think the margin might be close to right but it would make more sense if the topline was 47-40
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2016, 05:18:01 PM »

37 percent for Trump in Texas? Wow.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 05:21:13 PM »

Gosh, when Texas AND Utah are within single digits, you know there is something odd brewing....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 06:04:30 PM »

I could see Texas within single digits at this point in the race, with Trump at the Republican candidate, but this poll seems a bit sketchy.

Also, no idea if it is relevant in terms of polling methodology and standard practices, but the individual who conducted the poll has a bit of an activist background and contributes frequently to the Texas Observer, which is a Progressive Dem website.

I would love to see more polls from my former home-state, but from more credible organizations with known backgrounds, even if it is just a Houston Chronicle poll.

Personally, I think if Hillary is serious about a 50 State strategy, and continues with a significant cash advantage over Trump, it might be worth kicking some bucks over to state grassroots organizations trying to "turn Texas blue"
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 06:17:47 PM »

30%+ undecided? Is it really so hard for pollsters to push people for an answer?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2016, 11:39:45 PM »

This poll is 61% female and 38% male and 2% unsure about their sexuality. I didn't know they had so many TGs in Texas of all places...

Oversample much? Throw it in the trash, where it belongs.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 12:56:21 AM »

Maybe Cruz PUMAs?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 04:12:21 AM »

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Yep, pretty much. If we cost him Texas I'd love his face on election day... but by then he'd have known he already loses.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 09:27:37 AM »

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Yep, pretty much. If we cost him Texas I'd love his face on election day... but by then he'd have known he already loses.

I strongly invite Republicans who can't imagine voting for Donald Trump because he is a tribal demagogue or for Hillary Clinton because she is 'too liberal' to think carefully about what a vote for Gary Johnson means: that you want the Republican Party to return to a pro-business but otherwise even-handed orthodoxy in economics, that you want a Big Tent open to people of all ethnic and religious origins, that you like your politics rational, and that you want a Party that respects the capital that learning and imagination create.

If Donald Trump had opportunistically taken some liberal stances and run as a Democrat with the same level of demagoguery I would have to vote against him. Politicians who make contradictory promises cannot get satisfying results.

For someone whose primary choices for November were effectively Sanders, Clinton, Kasich, and Canada (I do not like the religious fanaticism and abrasive personality of Ted Cruz  I at least recognize the necessity of a strong two-party system to keep American politics and in turn economics honest with opportunity for all and not only the ruthless and connected.  This applies at both the state and federal level. Texas politics were better when they were competitive, when Texas could have both Lloyd Bentsen and Bill Clements.

I want to see Donald Trump defeated soundly -- so soundly that religious and ethnic bigots recognize that they have no chance in the American mainstream. I also want Republicans to recognize that Barack Obama did much right as President.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 09:29:12 AM »

Junk poll.

My bet for TX is the Trumpster winning with around 57-41%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 09:40:55 AM »

Junk poll.

My bet for TX is the Trumpster winning with around 57-41%.

45-44-10. Hillary Clinton will do better with people who could never vote for Barack Obama because he is... you know... and make more gains among Hispanics than reduced participation by blacks will lose. The Democratic floor and the Democratic ceiling are close in Texas.

I expect to see lots of Johnson votes, especially in suburban areas around Dallas, Fort Worth,  and Houston. I wouldn't count on educated suburban voters to vote for Donald Trump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2016, 09:45:20 AM »

Junk poll.

My bet for TX is the Trumpster winning with around 57-41%.

45-44-10. Hillary Clinton will do better with people who could never vote for Barack Obama because he is... you know... and make more gains among Hispanics than reduced participation by blacks will lose. The Democratic floor and the Democratic ceiling are close in Texas.

I expect to see lots of Johnson votes, especially in suburban areas around Dallas, Fort Worth,  and Houston. I wouldn't count on educated suburban voters to vote for Donald Trump.

Johnson won’t be anywhere near double digits. The only state where he may do well is UT. But I don’t expect him to outperform eight percent even in this state. TX is a solid red state like CA is solid blue.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2016, 05:44:27 PM »

Junk poll!
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2016, 07:01:19 AM »

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Congratulations. I *was* considering voting for Johnson. Now I'll wait for a party that actually respects what I believe.
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