General Point on Polls

[AuH2O]

It's quite interesting... sometimes there are critical underlying factors that are ignored in analysis of data, thus doing severe damage to the integrity of that analysis.

Odd as it might seem, there is definite evidence of structural reasons for polls to be received differently on a geographic basis. In other words, some people just like their politicians more.

I believe this may be evident with the latest batch of Governor and Senator approval polls by SUSA. North Dakotans led both lists... and they aren't even from the same party. While it's theoretically possible that's just random chance, more likely there is a social capital-related explanation.

People in North Dakota, and that region in general, and more trusting of others overall and thus approving of politicians specifically. ND and various other rural states and some of the Northeastern states are very homogeneous, which correlates to a higher "social capital" as well. That is more of a sociological issue, but I think it can be cross-applied. The correlation is really quite striking.

Now, individual politicians will also be affected by their popularity, outside structural factors. But ultimately it may be that North Dakotans don't so much love Kent Conrad or John Hoeven as they love North Dakota. Once, however, you face an intrastate battle, loyalty to your own state is out the window, as both candidates fill that requirement.

In other words, to think Conrad is invincible because of his approval numbers is a serious, serious error, one that Hoeven would be wise to avoid.

[A18]

Has there been any polling data matching Conrad against Hoeven?

[Alcon]

I suppose that this is fundamentally part of the Dakotan culture. Politics can get nasty, but they are not truly competitive. One of the best way to go up in flames in the Dakotas is to turn it into a partisan race - North and South Dakotans (especially North Dakotans) hate partisan races. People assume that Daschle must have been hated when he was defeated - au contraire. His approval ratings were extremely high.

Perhaps it could be characterized as liking the political status quo, but those in the Dakotas are happy to approve of things they even disagree with. This sounds weird, but look at the death penalty: South Dakota never uses it, and North Dakota doesn't even have it. The population generally supports a death penalty, but seems content without it.

Politics in the Dakotas are often a lot more laid-back and non-partisan than those in other areas. That does not mean there are not fierce contests, but these rarely are partisan and more candidate-oriented and typically less dirty than they would be in other states. It seems to be cultural.
This is an outsider's opinion, though.