Harris: Bush +3 (w/ Nader) / Approval 48%

[California Dreamer]

Head to Head (likely voters April 8-15)
Bush 46
Kerry 43
Nader 8


It also shows Bush and his entire cabinet at their lowest levels for approval.

Name: (positive/negative)
Bush: 48 / 51
Cheney: 36 / 52
Powell: 63 / 31
Rumsfeld: 45 / 47
Ashcroft: 40 / 45

Compared to previous reelections, the presidents level are in between the winners and the losers, but closer to the winners.

April Aproval Ratings for winners:
Nixon April 1972: 50 / 46
Reagan April 1984: 61 / 39
Clinton April 1996: 52 / 47

April Aproval Ratings for losers:
Ford April 1976: 37 / 60
Carter April 1980 36 / 63
Bush Sr April 1992 37 / 62


CLICK HERE FOR FULL DETAILS

[ShapeShifter]

"But Kerry Fails to Benefit from Declining Bush ratings"

[dunn]

GREAT link

[Lunar]

I throw out the poll immediately due to a bad model.  Nader isn't getting 8 so they are doing something wrong.

[StevenNick]

Nader at 8?  Give me a break.

[zachman]

"But Kerry Fails to Benefit from Declining Bush ratings"

He will benefit by convention time and when his VP helps make him more of a public figure. Kerry still isn't everywhere for the press. If Bush's numbers stay below 47% come election day, I can't see that he'll win.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The poll as a whole is pretty much what we've been seeing all along, but I'm really surprised by those negative ratings for Cheney and Rumsfeld.  I'm amazed more than 90% of people can GIVE a rating to Rumsfeld.

[ShapeShifter]

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between April 8 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross-section of 979 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

Their sample does not even included registered voters... Just adults. Which is pretty general.

[Lunar]

Shouldn't they be getting the actual proportions anyway rather than being forced to weight them?  I mean, if you are getting 60% women in any sample over 75 you're doing something wrong and should discard the whole thing rather than weighting it.

[California Dreamer]

if you read more closely you will see that they provide head to head date for all adults, registered voters and likely voters.

As expected Kerry does best amongst 'all adults'


RE: Nader
Actually it seems Nader has been enjoying a bit of a surge in polls that include him lately. Plus he is repositioning himself as the "Peace/Get out of Iraq Now" candidate. This can be very bad for Kerry cuase it will give protest voters something to hand their hat on that is more tangible and exciting than "stop corporate corruption"

[The Vorlon]

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between April 8 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross-section of 979 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

Their sample does not even included registered voters... Just adults. Which is pretty general.

Further down they do breakout to registered and likely voters.

For the record, Harris was THE MOST ACCURATE company in 2000.  Their final call was Gore + 0.7% versus +0.51 actual

In previous years they did less well...

The poll was also taken April 8-15, before Bush's news conference, and prior to Bush's recent bump in other polls.

[ShapeShifter]

Looking at this... President Bush's job ratings are down to 48% positive, 51% negative, the worst ratings of his presidency and the first time his negative rating is greater (albeit insignificantly) than his positive rating.

I wonder how Bush would act if a majority of people disapproved the way he was running thing. In other words, how would he run things under pressure? It is easy to be a leader when majority of people like the way you are running things, but I bet it is harder when majority of people don't like the way you are running things. If Bush is to be elected 4 more years, I would like to see him be tested before that.

[California Dreamer]

what I take away from this is:

Bush's VP and cabinet is not very popular (and therefore little help in campaigning)
Bush is not as unpopular as his father
Bush is not as popular as Reagan

...so from a precedent nothing from this points to a PV landslide either way.

[The Vorlon]

what I take away from this is:

Bush's VP and cabinet is not very popular (and therefore little help in campaigning)
Bush is not as unpopular as his father
Bush is not as popular as Reagan

...so from a precedent nothing from this points to a PV landslide either way.

Everything we see on this election says the same thing..

Bush is right on the line between re-elect/don't re-elect.

[Umengus]

48%-51%

It's still possible: if Bush has 48% of votes, he can win.

[© tweed]

I can't believe LBJ had a 57% approval rating