Trump's strategy: racial polarisation?

[136or142]

the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.

If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.

Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.

That is actually sort of my point.  When "Whites" were 95%or 90% of the population there was no such thing as Whites (they are Polish, Irish, Italian etc etc). When they are 65% of the population and falling and faced with well organized ethnic voting blocs outside of Whites then they start to identify as Whites and then engage in bloc voting.  I am not claiming that I scientifically know that low 60% is the right threshold but it is something I derived at how ethnic bloc voting takes place at an international level.

Among other things, I don't think there is any reason to believe that white women and white men would necessarily vote the same way.

[uti2]

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Uh, no. Quite the opposite.

White Catholics mainly live in the Northeast and areas where Trump did best in.

[136or142]

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Uh, no. Quite the opposite.

White Catholics mainly live in the Northeast and areas where Trump did best in.

Trump did best in the Republican Primaries but in pretty much all the Northeast states Hillary Clinton received far more primary votes.

[uti2]

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Uh, no. Quite the opposite.

White Catholics mainly live in the Northeast and areas where Trump did best in.

Trump did best in the Republican Primaries but in pretty much all the Northeast states Hillary Clinton received far more primary votes.

I was talking about the Republican electorate. Areas with White Catholics were most inclined to vote for Trump.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Well, it's a losing strategy.

Divide and conquer: It worked for other dictators.

Oh, and this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/07/the-incredible-crushing-despair-of-the-white-working-class/

[Boston Bread]

Well, it's a losing strategy.

Divide and conquer: It worked for other dictators.

I guess Trump wants to join the ranks of other dictators.

[angus]

So my working theory is Trump thinks that if he divides the country along racial lines (whites vs blacks/hispanics) the white majority will flock to him and send him to the White House. This is probably because he's very old and thinks it's 1980 when such a strategy did work.

I'm not buying it. 

I think that Trump is into Dollars.  In fact, he loves money, and that's primarily why he wants to be president.  He expects to influence policy in such a way that will make him more rich. 

His campaign is not very well organized.  If you are seeing patterns, then you might also be the sort of person who sees sailboats, monkeys, and fish in the clouds.  Stare at it long enough and you'll see what was already in your mind.  Trump has no strategy.  He says whatever pops into his mind, and apparently that's working well for him.  It's not an attempt at racial polarization, and if racial polarization occurs because of his locutions, then that says more about the United States than it says about The Donald. 

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Please take the red D out of your profile.

And how exactly is Trump capitalizing on anything? He's going to lose and lose badly with that strategy because unlike your fellow mouth breathing Kentucky whites, educated whites in the northeast and swing states will not vote for Trump.

Other than the fact that I'm an educated non-white who lived in NJ before I moved to KY, everything you said about me is completely right.

Skoods doesn't understand why a person like me, who was a member of my county's Democratic committee while in HIGH SCHOOL is now an independent registered Republican.  Perhaps it's because the Democratic Party dropped everything to address the grievances of the minority groups that now make up their base (even when these grievances lacked merit) and began to heap scorn toward those folks who viewed some of those grievances as lacking merit, but whose grievances were the grievances of folks who were working and getting screwed.  Addressing THOSE grievances would have helped everyone, but the Democrats decided to live on their image of "the party of the working man" that no longer rang true for the folks who are now considered Trump's base.

Not all of this is racism.  In fact, very little of this is.  Today's Democratic Party doesn't get the fact that giving upper middle class women the right to abortion on demand or giving folks the ability to marry someone of their own gender doesn't help working people better their lot in life one iota.  No one is more able to support their families because people can now marry someone of the same sex or have an abortion.  Political capital is not a free resource, and the working class of America has gotten the message that the Democratic Party has spent their political capital on folks other than them.

[Curbstomp]

Democrats want to keep Blacks/Hispanics/Asians voting for them as a monolithic bloc, so they smear the Republican as a racist/sexist.

It didn't work with Reagan, GHWB or GWB, it worked with McCain and Romney (helped by racist blacks voting for Obama solely on skin).

Trump has fought back against the usual Republican=fascist/Nazi/Hitler routine from the Democrat brownshirts. So the next step was to launch physical attacks on Trump supporters and blame the victims.

There have been a lot of Democrats on here supporting the mob mentality because they think Trump provoked them by saying mean things. That's what rapists say when their victims are showing off their bodies.

[jaichind]

Among other things, I don't think there is any reason to believe that white women and white men would necessarily vote the same way.

Sure.  Just like Black men and Women would not necessary vote the same way.  In 2012 the Black gender gap for the Dem vote ( 96 vs 87) was greater than the gender gap for Whites for the Dem vote (42 vs 35.)   There can be ethnic polarization (like with Blacks) within the context of a significant gender gap as well.

[RINO Tom]

So my working theory is Trump thinks that if he divides the country along racial lines (whites vs blacks/hispanics) the white majority will flock to him and send him to the White House. This is probably because he's very old and thinks it's 1980 when such a strategy did work.

r u retarded? thats what dems do, and thats why they have 95% uneducated black votes.

so educated blacks are voting republican?

We constantly try to divide voters by county or region or whatever, but in America as a whole, both educated and uneducated Blacks vote Democrat and both educated and uneducated Whites vote Republican.

[Boston Bread]

^ I realize; I was just asking mgop a rhetorical question.

To everyone who is hoping that Republicans can just rely on white voters in the future continuously, let me say that a Republican party that is getting >70% of the white vote as a result of racial backlash is not going to be a small-government party, to say the least. Be careful what you wish for.

[jaichind]

^ I realize; I was just asking mgop a rhetorical question.

To everyone who is hoping that Republicans can just rely on white voters in the future continuously, let me say that a Republican party that is getting >70% of the white vote as a result of racial backlash is not going to be a small-government party, to say the least. Be careful what you wish for.

I would argue the exact opposite

[Boston Bread]

Edit: I don't think third world countries having low social spending is applicable. Among developed countries the correlation is a lot smaller.

You also can have big government without a large % on social spending. ex. Trump's wall or deportation plans would massively expand government power.

[RINO Tom]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Passing the Civil Rights act you mean?

The fact that SOME '60s Democrats HELPED pass some legislation that benefited Blacks is about as relevant to modern day voters as what Republicans did for Blacks during Reconstruction; the GOP's terrible margins with Black voters is because of their contemporary stupidity and has absolutely nothing to do with the CRA.

[Fight for Trump]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Passing the Civil Rights act you mean?

The fact that SOME '60s Democrats HELPED pass some legislation that benefited Blacks is about as relevant to modern day voters as what Republicans did for Blacks during Reconstruction; the GOP's terrible margins with Black voters is because of their contemporary stupidity and has absolutely nothing to do with the CRA.

I agree, but it doesn't stop either party from constantly reminding blacks that the other party is the "racist" one.

[jaichind]

A somewhat more recent study.  Same conclusions.

[Boston Bread]

The trend does exist. But the situation is more complicated in the US, considering increasing government size and decreasing whiteness are happening side by side.

I think moderation on a host of issues will be necessary for an almost entirely white GOP victory past 2020. At that point they would be scraping the barrel so hard they'd need to be winning over millennial Sanders supporters to reach the necessary level of white support. Trump is somewhat indicative of how it would work.

Have fun with Trump for the meantime, though.

[Sir Mohamed]

because at least 40% of whites won’t vote for him.

Based on what?

Obama got around 40% in 2012 and Hillary will win the whole election by a larger margin. I expect her to receive at least 52% of all votes.

Well, it's a losing strategy.

No-one said Trump is smart.

Yep, therefore he's, like Mitt said, very very not smart.

[IceSpear]

because at least 40% of whites won’t vote for him.

Based on what?

Obama got around 40% in 2012 and Hillary will win the whole election by a larger margin. I expect her to receive at least 52% of all votes.

Well, it's a losing strategy.

No-one said Trump is smart.

Yep, therefore he's, like Mitt said, very very not smart.

I mean, that's about what I'd guess as well, but I don't think you can take it for granted.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Yep, because he did better among seculars.