GOP Approval is down, Dem approval is up because Trump. Effects?

[Wells]

Right now the Republican Party favorability rating, according to the Huffington Post Pollster, is 29.9%. This time last year it was 33.4%. Their unfavorability is at 59.8%, up from 53.4% last year.

The Democratic Party favorability rating is at 45.5%, up from 41.3% this time last year. Their unfavorability is at 46.7%, down from 47.7% last year.

Obama job approval is at 50.2%, up from 45.8% this time last year. Disapproval is at 46.5%, down from 49.9% last year.

So what happened in the past year? What major event or occurrence could possibly have shifted public opinion so much against the Republican Party? In order to figure this out, then I decided to look at which major news stories shaped politics in the past year (according to memeorandum.com) and whether this will have a lasting effect on politics.

We'll start with the Republican Party. They were impacted the most. So when did they really start collapsing? According to the Huffington Pollster trend lines, the Republican Party started to gain unfavorability on December 9. So I'm going to look at the week of December 9 and see what was trending then. The major news stories for the first part of the week were about San Bernardino, but then something interesting happened. Clinton beat Trump in a poll. And then Donald Trump made his now (in)famous comments about how we were going to keep Muslims from coming to the US. Until we figure out what's going on. Rince Priebus condemned Trump. Trump's supporters would stick with him in an Indy campaign. Scalia said blacks go to schools "too advanced" because of affirmative action.  White supremacists like Trump. Contested convention worries. A common theme between these was Donald Trump. The biggest stories: Trump's Muslim ban and other politician's reactions to it. According to the trend lines, there is a strong correlation between the ban and GOP unfavorability. Interesting.

But that's just when undecideds were pushed over. When did people who favored the GOP start abandoning it? The trend lines show that the decline starts around January 19-24. What happened then? (Time for another news roundup!) Trump's two Corinthians. The establishment's terrifying choice (Trump vs. Cruz). National Review's anti-Trump issue. Bloomberg may run! (lol) And the Des Moines Register endorsements of Clinton and Rubio. In these news stories, Trump doesn't say anything that would alienate moderates, so it can't be him. Can it? But there is a small correlation that I see here. The National Review attacks Trump, the establishment hates Trump, DMR endorses Rubio - they are all part of the establishment backlash of Trump, and his supporters weren't having it. They lost their support of party leaders.

And this should worry Republicans. Trump's supporters don't want much to do with the Republican Party. Will they even vote Republican down ballot? According to the trend lines, GOP favorability is still declining at the same rate. Trump's supporters still haven't come back. Those who feel repulsed by Trump's comments are still holding onto their unfavorable opinion. Will things change by election day? And if this continues, how will this affect this and future elections?

I'll come back with some analysis of the other two polls (Democrat approval and Obama approval).

[LLR]

The Trump effect, I'd imagine.

Trump supporters thinking "Screw the party because Donald tells me to!"
NeverTrumpers thinking "This idiot just got nominated!?"

[Wells]

Obama's job approval has been the second most impacted area. And the beginning of Obama's rise in popularity and approval was near November 25. So, once again, I'm going to analyze the major news events of the week to see what went on. The major events were: Trump may run as an Indy, he said Muslims celebrated 9/11 in the street, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near Syria, Trump saw 9/11 from his apartment, new attack ads on Trump, the shooting of Chicago teen Laquan McDonald by a police officer, and the Planned Parenthood shooting. So how does this translate into increased support for Barack Obama? Is it really these events? However, if you look at it, it may not be Trump who caused this increase. Or at least not completely him. It was a combination of Trump and the Planned Parenthood shooting. The Planned Parenthood shooting could easily be blamed on the harsh rhetoric of conservatives rallying against abortion (and Donald Trump is harsh rhetoric), and it made Obama look sane by comparison.

So why has Obama's disapproval been decreasing? In order to find out, I looked the biggest news events of the week of December 3, when it started to decrease. They were: Planned Parenthood shooter's motives (abortion), Rubio the establishment candidate, Cruz compares Rubio to Clinton, Carson's numbers nosedive, San Bernardino shooting, 14 dead, shooters were Muslims, it was a terror attack, guns aren't the issue, NYDN cover. Wait, I though terrorist attacks hurt liberals! Why would this decrease disapproval of Obama? Well, maybe it could be the fact that the beginning of the week was dominated by fighting between Republican candidates. A divided republican Party only served to make Obama and the Democratic Party stronger by comparison. Meanwhile, the San Bernardino shooting was probably not seen as an act of Muslim terror. Instead, it was an act of Muslim terror with guns. Liberals seemed sensible for promoting gun control. Additionally, the American people as a whole aren't actually receptive to fear of entire religions. "Radical Islamic terrorism" are three words that the GOP says they are brave to say, and while they may be right, it doesn't help them with swing voters who see these words as generalizing an entire group of people. On the other hand, Obama and the Democrats seem more tolerant for uttering the words "radical jihadism." While not any more accurate, it doesn't give the impression of "islamophobia."

However, Republicans can't abandon these words at the risk of alienating their base. This puts them in quite a tough spot. The best they can hope for is that there are no terrorist attacks. Trump's rhetoric on these, contrary to popular belief, actually make him lose support because of how harsh it seems. It won't make him win an election, and it certainly won't help Republicans in down-ballot races. So, will these trends with Obama's support continue? I'll update these once a month with new data to see if the trends have changed and why they might have changed. Please discuss the impact of this on the current and future elections. Discuss with maps.

[TJ in Oregon]

How on earth does one approve of the GOP right now? I mean, the party is a train wreck and that is an insult to train wrecks. It's turned into a toxic personality cult and each faction has enough reason to hate the other one that it can't possibly be popular.

[Wells]

Democratic Party favorability is on the rise. They may soon be the only major party with a net favorable rating by the end of the summer. There are a few reasons why their favorability began to rise. However, I always assume that the reasons can be found in a common theme in the major news stories of the week. Democratic Party favorability began to rise on the week of October 11-17. The major news stories were: Romney candidacy speculation, Boehner resignation, interview with Obama, Clinton leading Sanders in NV+SC, Ryan Speaker speculation, Democratic debate, Clinton won, Republican Congressman Admits Benghazi was politically motivated, Democrats on Wall Street, Trump attacks GW Bush about 9/11, Biden speculation, Jeb Bush's collapse, Republican disarray, Romney lectures Trump. The overarching theme here was: Republican party in trouble, Clinton stays strong. This paints a picture of a strong, unified Democratic Party and a weak, divided Republican Party. Voters will obviously like the stronger party more than the weaker one.

And there is another reason why Democratic Party unfavorability ratings are falling. I'm going to preface this with the fact that their unfavorability rating hasn't seen any steep trendline, but there is a small one dropping about 0.6% starting around February 15. The news stories then were: Antonin Scalia's death, Republicans will block Obama's replacement, they say it's an election year, Nevada close on Dem side, Trump dominates in GOP polls, but he's losing ground in SC, Trump tells story that never happened to prove a point on mass killing of US enemies. The apparent message this week was that the Republicans were obstructionists and their frontrunner for the nomination is insane. Obviously, the Democratic party would look better by comparison.

In conclusion, the past year has been a disaster for the Republican Party. And, of course, anything bad for Republicans is (usually) good for Democrats and Obama. To summarize: Republicans are obstructionists with harsh rhetoric, the Republican Party is a mess divided between the establishment and its voters, and the Republican nominee is a liar and extremist. So what's the overall story of the past 12 months? Basically, the Republican Party establishment lost against Trump and looked stupid while the Democratic Party establishment won against Sanders and seemed normal and (mostly) united.

Question: Will this last? If so, what are the effects?

[Wells]

Nobody replied, so I'm bumping this to reflect the latest numbers. Obama job approval is at 51.0%, disapproval is at 45.9%. It appears Obama is becoming more popular. The growth also appears to be exponential. However, this is a continuation of existing trends.

Republican Party favorability and unfavorability are both on the rise (as more people form opinions), so unfavorability is at 60.7% and unfavorability is at 31.6%. The cause of this new trend centers around the dates of May 18-24. The major news stories then were: Clinton's lies, Clinton beats Trump (poll), Trump's court picks, Clinton is winning the primary, Trump attacks Clinton, Sanders is for party unity "behind closed doors", Clinton doesn't want to debate Sanders, Trump beats Clinton (poll), Michelle Fields will cover Donald Trump again, corporate America bought Hillary, Trump campaign isn't organized, Democratic Party platform concessions to Bernie, and Trump attacks Bill. These news stories include some very divisive and polarizing content (Trump's attacks on the Clintons), and some negative news for both Trump and Hillary. This is what is causing the new trends.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party favorability is positive for the first time in three years. 46.2% find it favorable, while 44.7% find it unfavorable. The most recent trend began on April 26. The biggest news stories around that time were: Cruz and Kasich coordinate, but there is little time, Giuliani says it's over, Sanders to reassess candidacy, and it's Trump's nomination to lose. It looks like disunity among Republicans and apparent "unity" among Democrats made the Dems look good.

If these trends continue, November will look very good for the Democrats.