NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble

[Fusionmunster]

Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.

With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.

Not in my neck of the woods.

I see Bernie signs, and I see Hillary signs but I've yet to see a trump sign. I've seen plenty of Trump bumper stickers though.

Hillary will win NJ by double digits easy, maybe not by 2012 margins but 2008 is doable.

Edit: And if I can ad, if you check the RCP for NJ in 2008 and 2012. There are plenty of single digit polls for Obama. There's even a McCain plus +2 by Rasmussen.

[Fusionmunster]

Seems legit.

(Don't add it.)

Uh, why not? Someone entered a SUSA poll out of KY that showed a tied race to the database. So why shouldn't we enter this one too?

Yeah, I agree. We are going to get weird polls regardless, especially in May. No reason to ignore them.

[Fusionmunster]

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.

Atlas posters seem to only remember the final results and not the year or so of polling that lead up to it. It can be frustrating.

[Fusionmunster]

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.

Best way to compare is the RCP average in 2012 and 2016

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

Back in 2012 the End of May gap between Obama and Romney was 12.3.  Now it is 9 in 2016.  It is sort of plausible. Trump has done a lot of business in NJ and could have some residual net positive as part of that. 

There were only two polls in may though, one which was a super-outlier.

[Fusionmunster]

NJ will not be close, the undecideds will heavily break for Clinton when all is said and done. I wish pollsters would start pushing undecideds more. Clinton wins by at least 15 points, I will bump this thread in November expecting accolades.

Edit: So maybe 15 might be a bit much but I'm comfortable saying double digits.

[Fusionmunster]

Monmouth has been pretty damn good this year during the primaries. This one has to be giving Clintonworld agita.

That said, New Jersey usually ends up being Fool's Gold for Republicans.

You have to admit, its pretty junky that both candidates are under 40.