NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble
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  NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble
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Author Topic: NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble  (Read 4082 times)
JRP1994
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« on: May 31, 2016, 10:44:16 AM »

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/71c06fa8-e277-4d82-9ac1-38fa679864c8.pdf

Clinton: 38%
Trump: 34%

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2016, 10:49:08 AM »


Now I'm so curious about HH(Hillary Hooligan)'s Reaction.

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Angrie
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 10:51:27 AM »

Wait, so New Jersey State could be The Swing State?

More seriously, this has a very high number of undecideds. I think that is a reflection of the fact that many voters are not satisfied with either of the two candidates.

They also have a matchup with Johnson and Stein:

Clinton 37%
Trump 31%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
Other 6%
Undecided 14%
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Cuckoo for Coco Chow!
Scott
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2016, 10:52:22 AM »

Seems legit.

(Don't add it.)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2016, 10:53:47 AM »

All the third parties combined will not get more than 3% of the vote.
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Angrie
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2016, 10:54:38 AM »

Now I'm so curious about HH(Hillary Hooligan)'s Reaction.

Trump is not going to win New Jersey unless he wins a national landslide. All this means is that the poll didn't push reluctant dissatisfied voters to make a decision. In the end, enough educated middle class suburbanites will, somewhat reluctantly, pull the lever for Hillary.
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mds32
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2016, 10:54:48 AM »


Well we did
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2016, 10:57:36 AM »

A lot of undecided Dems and indies, probably Bernie voters.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2016, 10:58:08 AM »

Now I'm so curious about HH(Hillary Hooligan)'s Reaction.

Trump is not going to win New Jersey unless he wins a national landslide. All this means is that the poll didn't push reluctant dissatisfied voters to make a decision. In the end, enough educated middle class suburbanites will, somewhat reluctantly, pull the lever for Hillary.

I'm not saying He gonna win NJ easily.
But it seems, Previous Oregon Poll(clout) wasn't an outlier.

Clout Poll(Oregon), Independent: TRUMP 53 - Hillary 26
MonMouth Poll(New Jersey), Independent: TRUMP 44 - Hillary 29


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Angrie
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2016, 11:04:16 AM »

I'm not saying He gonna win NJ easily.
But it seems, Previous Oregon Poll(clout) wasn't an outlier.

Clout Poll(Oregon), Independent: TRUMP 53 - Hillary 26
MonMouth Poll(New Jersey), Independent: TRUMP 44 - Hillary 29

This is true, the polling over the last week or two has been pretty pathetic for Hillary. It is really a disgrace. However, it also reflects the fact that Trump has gotten his party unification bounce and Hillary has not yet done so. When Bernie eventually drops out and endorses Hillary, the numbers will return to about the same levels as before Cruz dropped out (a 5-10 point Clinton national lead).
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2016, 11:25:54 AM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 11:29:12 AM by StatesPoll »


Anyway,
NJ: Hillary 38 - TRUMP 34 (MonMouth 5/23-5/27  703 RV)
OR: TRUMP 44 - Hillary 42 (Clout 5/10-5/12 657 LV)

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT vs NJ (for TRUMP)

1. Party Affiliation:  Similar
CT: DEM 36% | Rep 20%,  NJ: DEM 32.2% REP 19.5%

2. Racial Demographics(Voters Share) CT is much better than NJ

1) CT: White 79% | Black 11%| Hispanic 6% | Asian 2.5% | Other 1.5%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CT/president/

2) NJ: White 67% | Black 18%| Hispanic 10% | Asian 3% | Other 2%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/
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Angrie
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2016, 11:33:56 AM »

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2016, 12:01:27 PM »

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.


1. Election 2012. Results of White voters.
NJ: Romney 56% | Obama 43%, CT: Romney 48% | Obama 51%
But TRUMP is doing better than Romney(2012) of White voters in CT.

October 7-11th 2015  Quinnipiac Poll: Hillary 47% | TRUMP 40%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

White Voters: TRUMP beat Hillary 46-42


2. Yes it is true, NJ: 3.8% less democrats than CT.

But compare to NJ. CT has 12% more white voters, 7% less Black voters, 4% less Hispaic voters.
it means among the Independent voters,
More White voters than NJ.
less Black/Hispanic Independent voters than NJ.

That's why I guess CT is better than NJ for TRUMP.
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Angrie
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« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2016, 12:20:35 PM »

Differences:

- Hurricane Sandy helped Obama in the Northeast (which includes Connecticut)

True, though that was more of a factor in NJ and NYC. CT wasn't directly hit so much (being protected by Long Island).

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Granted. Though by the same token, you can say that Romney 2012 is not comparable to Trump 2016 (lesser favorability).

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Except for the Mormonism, Romney is the literal stereotypical embodiment of Fairfield County. Trump, on the other hand, is not a respectable well-heeled suburbanite. I have a hard time thinking of many places where "NeverTrump" might be stronger than there. It's one of the few places where people like Bill Kristol can swing a few percentage points. Romney was also the governor of MA, a similar neighboring New England state.

The states where Trump is a better fit than Romney are the states in which his trade message will go over particularly well with working class whites, and where working class whites are a large share of the electorate. There are working class whites in CT, and Trump should do relatively well with them for a Republican, but they are only about 25% of the electorate, which is one of the lower shares in the country.
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Angrie
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« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2016, 12:22:52 PM »

Trump/Fallin 201 EV 47.8%
Clinton/Hickenlooper 331 EV 42.7%
Johnson/Weld 0 EV 8.2%

Popular vote numbers mixed up?
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HilLarry
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2016, 12:29:29 PM »

Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.

With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2016, 12:33:55 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 12:38:36 PM by Fusionmunster »

Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.

With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.

Not in my neck of the woods.

I see Bernie signs, and I see Hillary signs but I've yet to see a trump sign. I've seen plenty of Trump bumper stickers though.

Hillary will win NJ by double digits easy, maybe not by 2012 margins but 2008 is doable.

Edit: And if I can ad, if you check the RCP for NJ in 2008 and 2012. There are plenty of single digit polls for Obama. There's even a McCain plus +2 by Rasmussen.
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HilLarry
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2016, 12:39:31 PM »

Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.

With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.

Not in my neck of the woods.

I see Bernie signs, and I see Hillary signs but I've yet to see a trump sign. I've seen plenty of Trump bumper stickers though.

Hillary will win NJ by double digits easy, maybe not by 2012 margins but 2008 is doable.

I agree that 2008 is doable, but Trump can't be underestimated.

Edit: That's interesting too, because I have yet to see a Hillary sign by me and I was getting worried
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2016, 12:39:55 PM »


Uh, why not? Someone entered a SUSA poll out of KY that showed a tied race to the database. So why shouldn't we enter this one too?

Yeah, I agree. We are going to get weird polls regardless, especially in May. No reason to ignore them.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2016, 12:44:59 PM »

Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.

With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2016, 12:54:56 PM »

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.
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jaichind
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« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2016, 12:59:22 PM »

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.

Best way to compare is the RCP average in 2012 and 2016

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

Back in 2012 the End of May gap between Obama and Romney was 12.3.  Now it is 9 in 2016.  It is sort of plausible. Trump has done a lot of business in NJ and could have some residual net positive as part of that. 
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2016, 01:00:36 PM »

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.
Unless there is another hurricane sandy i think single digits in nj is feasible given that bush only lost it by 7 in 04
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2016, 01:02:09 PM »

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.

Atlas posters seem to only remember the final results and not the year or so of polling that lead up to it. It can be frustrating.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2016, 01:02:47 PM »

Also, this poll is surprisingly white (73%) for a state that was only 67% White in the 2012 exit polls and should be even less white this year.
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