CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13 (user search)
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  CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13  (Read 1411 times)
dspNY
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« on: May 31, 2016, 06:19:53 AM »

Clinton 51, Sanders 38

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

https://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/31/new-poll-stanford-scholars-shows-age-divide-among-california-democrats-gop-unity-issues/
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2016, 04:05:09 PM »

Saw a tweet from Mark Murray at NBC that they will have a California poll out tomorrow (NBC/WSJ/Marist). Field and the LA Times are supposedly also surveying and will have final polls out in a few days. Monmouth put out a Clinton/Trump GE poll for Jersey but no primary poll
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 08:32:06 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 08:35:03 PM by dspNY »

They posted the entire poll and the crosstabs definitely look solid:

Whites: Hillary 46-42 (remember, there are more affluent whites in California and some of them might break her way. There is also a decent-sized Jewish population in CA and she's crushed him 2-1 with the Jewish vote)

Hispanics: Hillary 51-39 (this makes sense if younger Hispanics are breaking away from her while older Hispanics vote for her)

African-Americans: Hillary 71-9 (I think this is a little optimistic for her and she'll carry 3/4 of the African-American vote instead of an Alabama-type margin).

Asians: Hillary 56-33 (She's had a better organization with the Asian-American community here for a far longer period than Sanders. Younger Asians might be breaking for him but their parents and grandparents are almost certainly going for her, especially the grandparents)

18-29: Sanders 61-30 (Now you're thinking, shouldn't he be winning the California youth vote by more? Remember minorities comprise a majority of the youth vote in CA so his margins might not be as drastic as in other states where he won 75-80%)

30-44: Hillary 48-38 (Once again, minorities make up about half of this age group in California as well so it makes sense that she's winning narrowly here).

45-64: Hillary 57-36 (Very much in line with other states)

65+: Hillary 63-22 (Very much in line with other states)

Now the bit of good news for Sanders supporters:

They undersampled independents. 90% of the electorate in this poll is registered Dems. In 2008, 79% of the electorate were registered Dems while 21% were not. Adjust that to 80-20 and you get Clinton 48, Sanders 42, which is almost exactly what Field showed the last time

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/golden_state_poll_may_2016_results_tables_final.pdf#overlay-context=press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary
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