NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44% (user search)
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  NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44% (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44%  (Read 2526 times)
Angrie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 448


« on: May 30, 2016, 11:32:39 PM »

Nothing too shocking here given the state of the race at the moment. NH should be a rough tossup.

Both candidates are not well liked. Trump at 34/66. Clinton at 35/65.
Support is slightly firmer for Trump (78%) than Clinton (71%).
There is a significant gender gap. Men break 55/35/10 for Trump. Women go 54/32/14 for Clinton.

Notice the high number of undecideds, and the higher share of undecideds among women than among men (something which, of course, couldn't be possibly be random sampling variation/error...). Many of the undecideds may not be undecided between Trump and Hillary, but rather between one or the other and a third party, or not voting. I, for example, am undecided between Hillary, Stein, and some other sort of write-in. However, if polling shows things reasonably close on election day so that my vote could make a difference, I'll vote for Hillary.
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Angrie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 448


« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2016, 11:34:45 PM »

I guess they undersampled angry women in this poll.

Not true. See my signature and previous post.
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Angrie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 448


« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2016, 11:37:25 PM »

Angry voters often refuse to participate in polls /s

That is sort of true as well. It is unbelievable how many polls get conducted in New Hampshire. There can be so many phone calls, both for polls and from the campaigns themselves, both in primary season and in the general election. After a while people stop answering.
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