NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44%
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  NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44%
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Author Topic: NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44%  (Read 2649 times)
Seriously?
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« on: May 30, 2016, 10:43:43 PM »

http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/05/30/FPU-BH-May25-28%20Report.pdf

Trump 44%
Clinton 44%
Undecided/Unsure 12%

405 LV,  May 25-28, MOE +/- 4.9%.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2016, 10:48:12 PM »

Nothing too shocking here given the state of the race at the moment. NH should be a rough tossup.

Both candidates are not well liked. Trump at 34/66. Clinton at 35/65.
Support is slightly firmer for Trump (78%) than Clinton (71%).
There is a significant gender gap. Men break 55/35/10 for Trump. Women go 54/32/14 for Clinton.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2016, 10:56:19 PM »

Why are people so crazy about NH? It's only worth 4 EV lol.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2016, 10:59:42 PM »

Why are people so crazy about NH? It's only worth 4 EV lol.

Because it's the only ultimate elastic Independent moderate bellwether state in the country Purple heart When all misogynistic Bernie Bros come home for Clinton on election day, 44% will be Trump's ceiling here. Smiley

Yeah lol. Hillary should win by 10 or 12 points here.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2016, 11:00:38 PM »

Why are people so crazy about NH? It's only worth 4 EV lol.

Because it's the only ultimate elastic Independent moderate bellwether state in the country Purple heart When all misogynistic Bernie Bros come home for Clinton on election day, 44% will be Trump's ceiling here. Smiley
Can someone explain why they feel Sanders supporters are sexist? Very few people care about gender when they vote
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Matty
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2016, 11:01:24 PM »

second poll out of NH showing a tight race, BUT this is a state wehre bernie is loved. I suspect there are a lot of bitter voters of his that are not helping clinton in the polls.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2016, 11:02:47 PM »

I guess they undersampled angry women in this poll.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2016, 11:06:20 PM »

I guess they undersampled angry women in this poll.
Angry voters often refuse to participate in polls /s
Where does Indyrep get his angry women data from?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2016, 11:13:35 PM »

Considering how well Sanders did in New Hampshire, this is not exactly a surprisingly result when many of the undecideds are likely Sanders supporters.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2016, 11:14:01 PM »

Why are people so crazy about NH? It's only worth 4 EV lol.

President Al Gore agrees.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2016, 11:15:24 PM »

Why are people so crazy about NH? It's only worth 4 EV lol.

President Al Gore agrees.

President Samuel Tilden also.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2016, 11:24:24 PM »

Clinton is a terrible fit for NH. It's Bernie country after all.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2016, 11:24:50 PM »

Considering how well Sanders did in New Hampshire, this is not exactly a surprisingly result when many of the undecideds are likely Sanders supporters.
That's not the case. 3% of all Democrats are undecided. 15% of all Indys and 15% of all Republicans.
8% libs. 12% mods. 15% Conservatives.

It looks more like the #neverTrumps, which will likely come home.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2016, 11:30:29 PM »

Considering how well Sanders did in New Hampshire, this is not exactly a surprisingly result when many of the undecideds are likely Sanders supporters.
That's not the case. 3% of all Democrats are undecided. 15% of all Indys and 15% of all Republicans.
8% libs. 12% mods. 15% Conservatives.

It looks more like the #neverTrumps, which will likely come home.
I didn't say they were Democrats. Clinton is currently suffering with Democratic leaning independents who Sanders did very well with in the primary and that Obama won heavily in 2012 and 2008.
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Angrie
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2016, 11:32:39 PM »

Nothing too shocking here given the state of the race at the moment. NH should be a rough tossup.

Both candidates are not well liked. Trump at 34/66. Clinton at 35/65.
Support is slightly firmer for Trump (78%) than Clinton (71%).
There is a significant gender gap. Men break 55/35/10 for Trump. Women go 54/32/14 for Clinton.

Notice the high number of undecideds, and the higher share of undecideds among women than among men (something which, of course, couldn't be possibly be random sampling variation/error...). Many of the undecideds may not be undecided between Trump and Hillary, but rather between one or the other and a third party, or not voting. I, for example, am undecided between Hillary, Stein, and some other sort of write-in. However, if polling shows things reasonably close on election day so that my vote could make a difference, I'll vote for Hillary.
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Angrie
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2016, 11:34:45 PM »

I guess they undersampled angry women in this poll.

Not true. See my signature and previous post.
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Angrie
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2016, 11:37:25 PM »

Angry voters often refuse to participate in polls /s

That is sort of true as well. It is unbelievable how many polls get conducted in New Hampshire. There can be so many phone calls, both for polls and from the campaigns themselves, both in primary season and in the general election. After a while people stop answering.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2016, 12:24:32 AM »

Considering how well Sanders did in New Hampshire, this is not exactly a surprisingly result when many of the undecideds are likely Sanders supporters.
That's not the case. 3% of all Democrats are undecided. 15% of all Indys and 15% of all Republicans.
8% libs. 12% mods. 15% Conservatives.

It looks more like the #neverTrumps, which will likely come home.
I didn't say they were Democrats. Clinton is currently suffering with Democratic leaning independents who Sanders did very well with in the primary and that Obama won heavily in 2012 and 2008.

They sure don't lean Democrat if Hillary is the Democrat. The idea that she's entitled to their votes is absurd.
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Ljube
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2016, 12:37:23 AM »

NH has very little significance in the coming election. I am sure Trump won't even campaign there.

All Trump needs is Romney + FL, OH and PA. Those are the three states he will campaign heavily in. He will also campaign in MI for real and in NY for fun.

No need to campaign in NC, AZ or GA (lol!), cause if he needs to defend those three, he has already lost.

No need to campaign in small states, such as: NH, IA, NV, CO, cause they don't guarantee a thing. A win in any of them won't win Trump the election, while simultaneously losing any of the big three.

Trump might campaign in VA, cause its size is sort of on the fence of what constitutes a large enough state to invest in. I would advise him against it, but we'll see.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2016, 12:39:17 AM »

They sure don't lean Democrat if Hillary is the Democrat. The idea that she's entitled to their votes is absurd.

GO SEE A DOCTOR!!!
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2016, 12:49:35 AM »

NH has very little significance in the coming election. I am sure Trump won't even campaign there.

All Trump needs is Romney + FL, OH and PA. Those are the three states he will campaign heavily in. He will also campaign in MI for real and in NY for fun.

No need to campaign in NC, AZ or GA (lol!), cause if he needs to defend those three, he has already lost.

No need to campaign in small states, such as: NH, IA, NV, CO, cause they don't guarantee a thing. A win in any of them won't win Trump the election, while simultaneously losing any of the big three.

Trump might campaign in VA, cause its size is sort of on the fence of what constitutes a large enough state to invest in. I would advise him against it, but we'll see.


The problem with that is FL may truly be impossible for Trump with his Rust Belt+Bro strategy.  He needs a backup plan if he's getting screwed in the EC, and something like this is worth trying for:



I that happened, Trump would be better off campaigning in Virginia, than trying for three small states out of three.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2016, 01:54:13 AM »

YOU SEE! HILLARY IS DOOMED! VOTE BERNIE!
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2016, 03:45:25 AM »

The gender gap in this poll is 42 points, with women preferring Clinton over Trump by 22 points (54%-32%), while men strongly favor Trump (55%-35%). If only men weren't allowed to vote Sad

There was a similar gender spread in the recent Austrian elections. Men voting for far-right candidates seems to be a problem in a lot of countries.
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cxs018
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« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2016, 05:07:09 AM »

Just saying, TNVolunteer, nobody finds this funny, nobody finds this interesting, and at this point, it's literally all you post about. You've become a parody of yourself. Either stop being a fool, or stop posting.
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mds32
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« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2016, 09:29:02 AM »

Just saying, TNVolunteer, nobody finds this funny, nobody finds this interesting, and at this point, it's literally all you post about. You've become a parody of yourself. Either stop being a fool, or stop posting.

What are you talking about? He hasn't even commented on this thread.
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