HOT! - SUSA does 50 States - 100 Senatorial Approval POlls

[ATFFL]

100 polls.  Statistically speaking, 5 of these are outliers. 

Any bets on which ones?

[AuH2O]

It could be 5 or 20 or 0. No way to guess.

And even then the margin of error is fairly wide.

[Gabu]

96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%

Wow, talk about buyer's remorse, so to speak.  Maybe there's hope for Oklahoma yet.

[Alcon]

Is it normal to have no senators with net negative approval ratings?

[King]

ahahaha, remember all the Republicans claiming that Conrad is dead in the water?

He still could be...

Sen. Conrad is 71% Approve, 22% Disapprove
Gov. Hoeven (who they want to run against him) is 71% Approve, 20% Disapprove

It would be a close, unpolarizing race.

[A18]

96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%

Wow, talk about buyer's remorse, so to speak.  Maybe there's hope for Oklahoma yet.

He has a net positive approval rating of 3%.

[Alcon]

96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%

Wow, talk about buyer's remorse, so to speak.  Maybe there's hope for Oklahoma yet.

He has a net positive approval rating of 3%.

That's the range where likeable candidates prosper - even the "weak" positives can be changed over.

[A18]

Considering this is Oklahoma, it's going to take more than likeability.

[Gabu]

96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%

Wow, talk about buyer's remorse, so to speak.  Maybe there's hope for Oklahoma yet.

He has a net positive approval rating of 3%.

He also has an approval rating of well less than 50%, which I personally consider to be more important.

Regardless, it's only one poll, but still.

[Alcon]

Considering this is Oklahoma, it's going to take more than likeability.

Not necessarily with a conservative Democrat.

[A18]

He also has an approval rating of well less than 50%, which I personally consider to be more important.

Didn't Kyl have the same thing? But he had very low negatives. You can't just look at the approval rating, because unlike with Bush, the disapproval doesn't directly correlate.

[Alcon]

He also has an approval rating of well less than 50%, which I personally consider to be more important.

Didn't Kyl have the same thing? But he had very low negatives. You can't just look at the approval rating, because unlike with Bush, the disapproval doesn't directly correlate.

Well, it depends on the number of undecideds you have to win. Obviously, if it's 44-42, it's a lot easier to win than 44-5.

[TheresNoMoney]

15 of the top 20 are Democrats.

I'm fairly surprised that Allen's approval rating is only 53%.

[Sam Spade]

Is it normal to have no senators with net negative approval ratings?

Not really.  I was very surprised at it myself.

That being said, since Senate races are essentially statewide races (and have been turned successfully into national races by the Republicans of late), the point I made above still stands. 

Jimrtex's point is also very important to remember as well, something that we tend to not observe as political mavens, that not everyone knows who their Senator is well enough to comment.

As to this Hoeven-Conrad race thingy:  Look, if Hoeven runs, it's an immediate toss-up and it would definitely be extremely close.  To deny that is to deny reality.

Approval ratings have very little to do with the voting habits of Plains states residents for some reason or another.  It's important to remember that even Daschle lost, when he had an approval rating around 65% in South Dakota and nearly the same approval rating as John Thune.

[Sarnstrom]

I'm happy to see both Feingold and Kohl are fairly well liked at #24 and #35.

[The Duke]

Feinstein 49%
Boxer 50%

How do you spell vulnerable again?  Just not vulnerable enough for Bill Jones.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Average Democrat has
59.4% approve
30.0% disapprove

Average Republican has
53.9% approve
33.3% disapprove

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Feinstein 49%
Boxer 50%

How do you spell vulnerable again?  Just not vulnerable enough for Bill Jones.

They're better now.

[The Vorlon]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

Couple quickie technical notes:

Sample sizes were about 600 or so based on the quoted +/- 4.0% MOE.

This was a sample of ADULTS as aopposed to registered or likely votes.

Typically, a Democrat will do 2 or 3% better in a ADULTS poll versus likely voters, while a GOP candidate will go a tad worse.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

Polls of Adults will also bounce around a fair bit more than polls of registered or likely votes.  The 45% who don't vote are (obviously) less firm in the political opinions and will hence bouncve up or down with the news of the day far more than registered or likely voters.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

The left-leaning site, FreeRepublic says that they're the best.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1299611/posts

[minionofmidas]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

Couple quickie technical notes:

Sample sizes were about 600 or so based on the quoted +/- 4.0% MOE.

This was a sample of ADULTS as aopposed to registered or likely votes.

Typically, a Democrat will do 2 or 3% better in a ADULTS poll versus likely voters, while a GOP candidate will go a tad worse.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

Polls of Adults will also bounce around a fair bit more than polls of registered or likely votes.  The 45% who don't vote are (obviously) less firm in the political opinions and will hence bouncve up or down with the news of the day far more than registered or likely voters.

Okay thanks.

[The Vorlon]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

The left-leaning site, FreeRepublic says that they're the best.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1299611/posts

"A very decent firm" is hardly a slam by any means, in case the term was misunderstood.

In 2000, if you take the projected margin in SUSA presidential polls, they did indeed have a "mild pull to the left" of about 3%, and in 2004 it was basically the same.  

SUSA maginally underpolls Republicans, it's a statistical fact. - Doesn't make them a bad firm, indeed they are a "very decent firm" - they just have a mild pull to the Dem side. Research2000 is pretty similar - good firm, but a bit of a leftward pull historically.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I must respectfully disagree.

While SUSAs methodology (primarily sampling) does indeed have a slight left bias, it is a transparent methodology.

Research 2000 however has a more distinct left bias, which varies erraticatlly from mild to severe which is not a simple matter of sampling.

[King]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

The left-leaning site, FreeRepublic says that they're the best.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1299611/posts

"A very decent firm" is hardly a slam by any means, in case the term was misunderstood.

In 2000, if you take the projected margin in SUSA presidential polls, they did indeed have a "mild pull to the left" of about 3%, and in 2004 it was basically the same.  

SUSA maginally underpolls Republicans, it's a statistical fact. - Doesn't make them a bad firm, indeed they are a "very decent firm" - they just have a mild pull to the Dem side. Research2000 is pretty similar - good firm, but a bit of a leftward pull historically.

I still need to see what the mighty Zogby Interactive says before I can make an accurate prediction on any race.

[The Vorlon]

I must respectfully disagree.

While SUSAs methodology (primarily sampling) does indeed have a slight left bias, it is a transparent methodology.

Research 2000 however has a more distinct left bias, which varies erraticatlly from mild to severe which is not a simple matter of sampling.

Ya, but Del Ali over at Research2000 always tampers with his results in really obvious ways so you can tell what the poll reallys says if you look carefully..