HOT! - SUSA does 50 States - 100 Senatorial Approval POlls
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Author Topic: HOT! - SUSA does 50 States - 100 Senatorial Approval POlls  (Read 7306 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 14, 2005, 07:07:40 AM »
« edited: June 14, 2005, 07:12:19 AM by The Vorlon »

The Good folks at Survey USA did Senatorial approval rating polls for all 100 senators!

100 senate ratings

As a very, very rough rule of thumb, any Senator under +/- 50% should be considered vulnerable - does not mean they will lose, but a solid candidate has a decent shot of beating them.

Any Senator under 55% is a "might be vulnerable" - you really have to look at the state to get a better idea.

Again, this is one poll (actually two, they did two polls one month apart) so differences of a few points are not all that meaningfull on way or another, but still it is quite an interesting set of data!

I find it interesting the all 100% have a higher approval than disapproval number.

Here, ranked by net rating (Approval - disapproval) are all 100 SEnators..

1   IL   Obama, Barack   72%   21%   51%
2   HI   Inouye, Daniel   70%   19%   51%
3   ND   Conrad, Kent   71%   22%   49%
4   VT   Leahy, Patrick   71%   22%   49%
5   ME   Collins, Susan   71%   23%   48%
6   WV   Rockefeller, Jay   70%   22%   48%
7   ME   Snowe, Olympia   71%   24%   47%
8   ND   Dorgan, Byron   70%   24%   46%
9   RI   Reed, Jack   69%   23%   46%
10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
11   SD   Johnson, Tim   67%   25%   42%
12   AK   Stevens, Ted   66%   24%   42%
13   AZ   McCain, John   67%   26%   41%
14   DE   Carper, Thomas   63%   23%   40%
15   VT   Jeffords, James   66%   27%   39%
16   DE   Biden, Joseph   65%   27%   38%
17   TX   Hutchison, Kay   64%   26%   38%
18   NE   Nelson, Ben   64%   26%   38%
19   HI   Akaka, Daniel   62%   24%   38%
20   OR   Wyden, Ron   62%   24%   38%
21   CT   Lieberman, Joseph   65%   28%   37%
22   MS   Cochran, Thad   63%   26%   37%
23   MS   Lott, Trent   65%   29%   36%
24   NY   Clinton, Hillary   65%   30%   35%
25   IN   Lugar, Richard   61%   26%   35%
26   IA   Grassley, Chuck   61%   27%   34%
27   NY   Schumer, Charles   61%   28%   33%
28   ID   Crapo, Michael   59%   26%   33%
29   NM   Bingaman, Jeff   60%   28%   32%
30   UT   Bennett, Robert   59%   27%   32%
31   WV   Byrd, Robert   63%   32%   31%
32   ID   Craig, Larry   58%   28%   30%
33   WI   Feingold, Russell   62%   33%   29%
34   NM   Domenici, Pete   61%   32%   29%
35   UT   Hatch, Orrin   61%   32%   29%
36   MD   Mikulski, Barbara   60%   31%   29%
37   WY   Thomas, Craig   59%   30%   29%
38   WI   Kohl, Herb   59%   31%   28%
39   CT   Dodd, Christopher   58%   30%   28%
40   AL   Shelby, Richard   58%   30%   28%
41   MA   Kennedy, Edward   61%   34%   27%
42   NE   Hagel, Chuck   58%   31%   27%
43   AR   Pryor, Mark   58%   31%   27%
44   AL   Sessions, Jeff   57%   31%   26%
45   WY   Enzi, Michael   56%   30%   26%
46   AR   Lincoln, Blanche   58%   33%   25%
47   WA   Cantwell, Maria   55%   30%   25%
48   KS   Roberts, Pat   54%   29%   25%
49   LA   Vitter, David   57%   33%   24%
50   KY   McConnell, Mitch   56%   32%   24%
51   MT   Baucus, Max   58%   35%   23%
52   WA   Murray, Patty   56%   33%   23%
53   NC   Dole, Elizabeth   55%   32%   23%
54   NH   Gregg, Judd   53%   30%   23%
55   CO   Salazar, Ken   55%   33%   22%
56   NV   Reid, Harry   57%   36%   21%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
58   VA   Warner, John   53%   32%   21%
59   MD   Sarbanes, Paul   52%   31%   21%
60   GA   Isakson, Johnny   51%   30%   21%
61   IA   Harkin, Tom   54%   35%   19%
62   SC   Graham, Lindsey   53%   34%   19%
63   CA   Feinstein, Dianne   52%   33%   19%
64   PA   Specter, Arlen   54%   36%   18%
65   TN   Alexander, Lamar   52%   34%   18%
66   MI   Levin, Carl   52%   34%   18%
67   OR   Smith, Gordon   51%   33%   18%
68   AZ   Kyl, Jon   49%   31%   18%
69   FL   Nelson, Bill   47%   29%   18%
70   MO   Bond, Kit   52%   35%   17%
71   NJ   Corzine, Jon   52%   36%   16%
72   GA   Chambliss, Saxby   50%   34%   16%
73   IL   Durbin, Richard   50%   34%   16%
74   LA   Landrieu, Mary   54%   39%   15%
75   NV   Ensign, John   49%   34%   15%
76   RI   Chafee, Lincoln   53%   39%   14%
77   CA   Boxer, Barbara   51%   37%   14%
78   CO   Allard, Wayne   49%   35%   14%
79   SC   DeMint, Jim   49%   35%   14%
80   MN   Coleman, Norm   52%   39%   13%
81   TN   Frist, Bill   51%   39%   12%
82   KS   Brownback, Sam   50%   38%   12%
83   MI   Stabenow, Debbie   48%   36%   12%
84   MA   Kerry, John   53%   42%   11%
85   OH   Voinovich, George   50%   39%   11%
86   SD   Thune, John   52%   42%   10%
87   MO   Talent, Jim   48%   38%   10%
88   NH   Sununu, John   47%   37%   10%
89   KY   Bunning, Jim   47%   38%   9%
90   MT   Burns, Conrad   50%   42%   8%
91   AK   Murkowski, Lisa   49%   42%   7%
92   NC   Burr, Richard   42%   36%   6%
93   MN   Dayton, Mark   46%   41%   5%
94   FL   Martinez, Mel   43%   39%   4%
95   TX   Cornyn, John   40%   36%   4%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
98   NJ   Lautenberg, Frank   42%   40%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%
100   OH   DeWine, Mike   44%   43%   1%




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True Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2005, 07:49:12 AM »

What is that Phil?  Is that Rick Santorum with a 45-44 approval rating?  Is he, what, 93rd out of all Senators?  Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2005, 08:28:10 AM »

Tim Johnson at 67? Kent Conrad at 71? Will it mean anything?
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2005, 08:28:24 AM »

I tried to tell everyone that DeWine had really angered a lot of his constituents.

Hmm
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2005, 08:43:52 AM »

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2005, 08:56:06 AM »

Cool Smiley
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2005, 08:58:57 AM »

im surprised that kerry's negatives are so high in mass.  any reason for this?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2005, 09:18:11 AM »

im surprised that kerry's negatives are so high in mass.  any reason for this?
Yeah, noticed that too. Maybe it's just post-election disaffection with Kerry among core Democrats, as witnessed on this board as well.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2005, 09:21:13 AM »

10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
81   TN   Frist, Bill                   51%    39%   12%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%


Well, considering several conservative Indiana commentators were quick to write-off Bayh when he voted against Condi Rice, I'm quite pleased with his favourability rating, though its not in the 70s. When you compare him with other Democratic contenders expected to run in 2008, he's looking good Smiley

Meanwhile, on the GOP potential runners, Santorum's clearly is, and would be, a polarising candidate, while other expected runners Allen, to a greater extent, and Frist, to a lesser extent, fair better

Nice to see those pair of Oklahoma wing nuts coming in at positions 96 and 97 Wink

Dave
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2005, 09:23:20 AM »

10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
81   TN   Frist, Bill                   51%    39%   12%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%


Well, considering several conservative Indiana commentators were quick to write-off Bayh when he voted against Condi Rice, I'm quite pleased with his favourability rating, though its not in the 70s. When you compare him with other Democratic contenders expected to run in 2008, he's looking good Smiley

Meanwhile, on the GOP potential runners, Santorum's clearly is, and would be, a polarising candidate, while other expected runners Allen, to a greater extent, and Frist, to a lesser extent, fair better

Nice to see those pair of Oklahoma wing nuts coming in at positions 96 and 97 Wink

Dave

P.S. I'm aware they are state polls - but I think if your doing well in the your own state, in sets you in good stead for a national challenge

Dave
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2005, 09:24:26 AM »

I'm suprised at the Thune numbers; is that to do with the base closures?

I note that Nixon's curse on that NC seat still seems to be working...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2005, 09:30:27 AM »

10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
81   TN   Frist, Bill                   51%    39%   12%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%


Well, considering several conservative Indiana commentators were quick to write-off Bayh when he voted against Condi Rice, I'm quite pleased with his favourability rating, though its not in the 70s. When you compare him with other Democratic contenders expected to run in 2008, he's looking good Smiley

Meanwhile, on the GOP potential runners, Santorum's clearly is, and would be, a polarising candidate, while other expected runners Allen, to a greater extent, and Frist, to a lesser extent, fair better

Nice to see those pair of Oklahoma wing nuts coming in at positions 96 and 97 Wink

Dave
Frist's rating too is pretty horrible for anyone trying to set up a presidential candidacy. (Then again, John Kerry's rating is no better...)
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2005, 10:19:29 AM »

10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
81   TN   Frist, Bill                   51%    39%   12%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%


Well, considering several conservative Indiana commentators were quick to write-off Bayh when he voted against Condi Rice, I'm quite pleased with his favourability rating, though its not in the 70s. When you compare him with other Democratic contenders expected to run in 2008, he's looking good Smiley

Meanwhile, on the GOP potential runners, Santorum's clearly is, and would be, a polarising candidate, while other expected runners Allen, to a greater extent, and Frist, to a lesser extent, fair better

Nice to see those pair of Oklahoma wing nuts coming in at positions 96 and 97 Wink

Dave
Frist's rating too is pretty horrible for anyone trying to set up a presidential candidacy. (Then again, John Kerry's rating is no better...)

Frist's aren't good - but I think he'd win again in Tennessee were he not to retire to focus on a presidential run, whereas Santourm seems in real trouble over in Pennsylvania. I want him Santorum to lose his Senate seat but I want him to win the GOP nomination (I think he'll scare moderates - but, on second thoughts, they said that about Reagan) - so its kind of a paradox in that a Senate defeat may well end his presidential aspirations

I'm hoping Kerry's poor rating in Massachussetts puts paid to a challenge in 2008 - that said, I'd welcome his entry into the race, if only, to split the liberal vote.

For me, it will be moderate Democrat in 2008 or nothing at all! We'll just have to wait and see

Dave
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2005, 10:43:29 AM »

What is that Phil?  Is that Rick Santorum with a 45-44 approval rating?  Is he, what, 93rd out of all Senators?  Smiley

What is that, True Dem? Don't we always go by Quinnipiac for the Santorum/Specter approval ratings?  Tongue

Anyway, I can believe those approval ratings but those disapprovals seem too high. Either way, you guys refuse to recognize the Rendell approval/disapproval numbers so I might have to start doing the same with Santorum.  Wink
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2005, 11:15:47 AM »

I tried to tell everyone that DeWine had really angered a lot of his constituents.

Hmm

If those people are conservatives angered by the judicial filibuster "compromise", then they are idiots.  DeWine did exactly what the President asked him to. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2005, 11:17:36 AM »

I guess he's angered a number of groups both left and right, on more issues than thsi one probably. Maybe he's just not been very adept at selling his moves.
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Schmitz in 1972
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2005, 11:36:22 AM »

I just can not understand for the life of me why Conrad and Dorgan are so darn well liked!

If you look at their ratings they're fairly liberal, how do they get so much support in North Dakota??

Oh wait, I forgot, they bring the pork home. It was always thus...
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jimrtex
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2005, 01:10:41 PM »

I just can not understand for the life of me why Conrad and Dorgan are so darn well liked!

If you look at their ratings they're fairly liberal, how do they get so much support in North Dakota??
There appears to be a strong small state bias to the ratings.  Perhaps in a smaller community, there is less opportunity to form subgroups that people can identify with.

In other cases, it appears that there is a difference based on how well the senator is known.  For example McCain has a 67%-26% approval rating (93% of people rated him), while Kyl has a 49%-31% approval rating (3 times as many people withheld an opinion, but only a few more had a negative opinion). 

And even some of the disapproves might be from people who don't know who Jon Kyl is.  On an issue or an election, "undecided" can mean that you are still gathering information so as to make your decision later.  You might not be willing to admit that you have no opinion on someone you hired 10 years ago.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2005, 01:20:08 PM »

What is that Phil?  Is that Rick Santorum with a 45-44 approval rating?  Is he, what, 93rd out of all Senators?  Smiley

What is that, True Dem? Don't we always go by Quinnipiac for the Santorum/Specter approval ratings?  Tongue

Anyway, I can believe those approval ratings but those disapprovals seem too high. Either way, you guys refuse to recognize the Rendell approval/disapproval numbers so I might have to start doing the same with Santorum.  Wink

Ahh, but you were saying at one time "he has some of the highest approvals of any Senator in the country" and "this is Pennsylvania, people like him."  Sorry Phil, PA is a moderate state.  He's too polarizing.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2005, 01:20:36 PM »

I would have though Levin's approval would be higher.
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2005, 01:26:17 PM »

ahahaha, remember all the Republicans claiming that Conrad is dead in the water?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2005, 01:53:37 PM »

Interesting in these numbers are the fact that no Senator has a net negative approval rating.

If this continues to be so in the elections of 2006, my own personal gut feeling tells me that the translation of this is that no incumbent Senator, unless he or she is in a state that leans in Presidential elections towards the opposite party, will be vulnerable.

And of course, open seats in 2006 will be vulnerable.

Notice the disconnect still that every approves of their own Senator, but doesn't approve of anyone elses.  Hence the dichotomy between Congress approval ratings and personal Senator approval ratings.

Of course, there's also the 1 in 20 rule I keep in mind here.  Amusing.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2005, 02:09:28 PM »

ahahaha, remember all the Republicans claiming that Conrad is dead in the water?

Perhaps you've forgotten Hoeven leads Governors in approval rating?

Perhaps you've forgotten, all else being equal, ND is Republican?

Perhaps you made up this bogus "claim" "Republicans" never made. In reality, some of us have merely noted that, if Hoeven declares, which is likely, Conrad is in trouble-- which he is. The facts.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2005, 02:45:55 PM »

ahahaha, remember all the Republicans claiming that Conrad is dead in the water?

Perhaps you've forgotten Hoeven leads Governors in approval rating?

Perhaps you've forgotten, all else being equal, ND is Republican?
All else being equal, in congressional elections, ND is solidly Democrat.
(Which isn't the same as saying Conrad is safe...although this poll looks good.)
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A18
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« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2005, 02:48:18 PM »

Hmm... it's interesting to see Allen and Warner at only about 53% approval. Warner won re-election in a landslide two years ago (though I'll admit to not knowing who his opponent was), and this is in a conservative state, whereas you have a liberal Democrat dominating in North Dakota... a state that went Bush by, what, 20 points?
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