Can Trump harness French-Canadian lumberjacks to win Maine (or at least ME-02?)

[Angrie]

There's an old thread called "Is Maine trending GOP?." Rather than resurrect the entire thread, I want to just pull out a few interesting observations:

I think we can come to an agreement here that Maine isn't really a blue state. It is an Independent state. If another Perot-caliber figure came around, I think they might actually win this state in general. Can we agree to that sentiment?

A Perot-caliber figure? Sounds like Trump...

Bruce Poliquin and Paul LePage are French-Canadian. French-Canadian working class voters are willing to vote for Republican candidates that are part of their tribe but not for Generic R candidates at the presidential level. In Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, white working class support for the Democratic Party has proven to be durable at the federal level: these voters are not staunch social conservatives and don't care for southern-soaked, mouth-breathing rhetoric about "family values".  Paul LePage understands this: his campaign focused on bashing elites and immigrants, a great strategy at the state-level that would yield disastrous results for the GOP in crucial swing states.

Focusing on bashing elites and immigrants instead of rhetoric about "family values"? Again, sounds like Trump...

It's also one of the whitest states in the country. If whites are swinging hard to the Republicans, it will be reflected even in places like New England.

Engineering a hard white swing to the Republicans is basically Trump's strategy...

We can find some not-entirely-implausible scenarios in which this could matter.


1) ME-01 tips the election to Trump:

Trump 270
Clinton 268

In this scenario, Trump's white power strategy alienates Hispanics sufficiently so that Trump loses Arizona and the rest of the Southwest. But it successfully wins over working class whites and flips the midwest and New Hampshire. ME-01 puts Trump over the top, avoiding an electoral college tie in which the House might choose to install an establishment puppet.


2) ME tips the election to Trump:

Trump 270
Clinton 268

In this scenario, Trump somehow wins the low hanging fruit of OH, VA, and FL. But he can't break through with the nice friendly upper midwesterners. However, winning Maine could put him over the top.

Or if he won Maine statewide and won ME-02, but lost ME-01, it would be a 269-269 electoral college tie. That would be an interesting outcome, since the weirdness of the way Maine allocates its electoral votes differently than every other state besides Nebraska would then plunge America into a constitutional crisis, prompting riots and the like.

[MT Treasurer]

I definitely think he should make a play for ME-02, at least. And you should know better than I, Angry, that ME is much more likely to flip than NH.

[Boston Bread]

Winning 1 EV is not worth it. ME trending republican is so overrated on this forum. The state trended towards Obama in 2012. It's about as safe as Oregon for the Dems, and ME-02 is as likely Dem as Wisconsin.

[Angrie]

Winning 1 EV is not worth it. ME trending republican is so overrated on this forum. The state trended towards Obama in 2012. It's about as safe as Oregon for the Dems, and ME-02 is as likely Dem as Wisconsin.

Well, he could win 4 electoral votes by winning the whole state. That would be difficult, since ME-01 is basically a more Democratic version of New Hampshire. But not impossible. Remember, in 2008 when we had new candidates, we had large unexpected swings in states like IN, NC, and VA. The map could similarly change this year. LePage has shown the path for Republicans to be competitive in Maine, and all Trump has to do is follow it.

[StatesPoll]

There's an old thread called "Is Maine trending GOP?." Rather than resurrect the entire thread, I want to just pull out a few interesting observations:

I think we can come to an agreement here that Maine isn't really a blue state. It is an Independent state. If another Perot-caliber figure came around, I think they might actually win this state in general. Can we agree to that sentiment?

A Perot-caliber figure? Sounds like Trump...

Bruce Poliquin and Paul LePage are French-Canadian. French-Canadian working class voters are willing to vote for Republican candidates that are part of their tribe but not for Generic R candidates at the presidential level. In Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, white working class support for the Democratic Party has proven to be durable at the federal level: these voters are not staunch social conservatives and don't care for southern-soaked, mouth-breathing rhetoric about "family values".  Paul LePage understands this: his campaign focused on bashing elites and immigrants, a great strategy at the state-level that would yield disastrous results for the GOP in crucial swing states.

Focusing on bashing elites and immigrants instead of rhetoric about "family values"? Again, sounds like Trump...

It's also one of the whitest states in the country. If whites are swinging hard to the Republicans, it will be reflected even in places like New England.

Engineering a hard white swing to the Republicans is basically Trump's strategy...

We can find some not-entirely-implausible scenarios in which this could matter.


1) ME-01 tips the election to Trump:

Trump 270
Clinton 268

In this scenario, Trump's white power strategy alienates Hispanics sufficiently so that Trump loses Arizona and the rest of the Southwest. But it successfully wins over working class whites and flips the midwest and New Hampshire. ME-01 puts Trump over the top, avoiding an electoral college tie in which the House might choose to install an establishment puppet.


2) ME tips the election to Trump:

Trump 270
Clinton 268

In this scenario, Trump somehow wins the low hanging fruit of OH, VA, and FL. But he can't break through with the nice friendly upper midwesterners. However, winning Maine could put him over the top.

Or if he won Maine statewide and won ME-02, but lost ME-01, it would be a 269-269 electoral college tie. That would be an interesting outcome, since the weirdness of the way Maine allocates its electoral votes differently than every other state besides Nebraska would then plunge America into a constitutional crisis, prompting riots and the like.

TRUMP might win AZ,CO. SO your map isn't that much realistic.

[pho]

Trump wasn't able to win Maine in a Republican primary, he is definitely not winning it in the general.

[Angrie]

Trump wasn't able to win Maine in a Republican primary, he is definitely not winning it in the general.

That was because it was a low turnout caucus with only a single caucus site in each county. He would easily have won a primary.

[dax00]

If he can win ME-2 by 8%+, he'd take the state while losing ME-1. Not winning ME-1 under any foreseeable circumstance.

I put Trump's odds at winning ME-2 at 40%, and winning by enough to cancel out ME-1 at 10%.

[Figueira]

Winning 1 EV is not worth it. ME trending republican is so overrated on this forum. The state trended towards Obama in 2012. It's about as safe as Oregon for the Dems, and ME-02 is as likely Dem as Wisconsin.

Well, he could win 4 electoral votes by winning the whole state. That would be difficult, since ME-01 is basically a more Democratic version of New Hampshire. But not impossible. Remember, in 2008 when we had new candidates, we had large unexpected swings in states like IN, NC, and VA. The map could similarly change this year. LePage has shown the path for Republicans to be competitive in Maine, and all Trump has to do is follow it.

No, ME-1 is like California. No way Trump can win there.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Winning 1 EV is not worth it. ME trending republican is so overrated on this forum. The state trended towards Obama in 2012. It's about as safe as Oregon for the Dems, and ME-02 is as likely Dem as Wisconsin.

Well, he could win 4 electoral votes by winning the whole state. That would be difficult, since ME-01 is basically a more Democratic version of New Hampshire. But not impossible. Remember, in 2008 when we had new candidates, we had large unexpected swings in states like IN, NC, and VA. The map could similarly change this year. LePage has shown the path for Republicans to be competitive in Maine, and all Trump has to do is follow it.

No, ME-1 is like California. No way Trump can win there.

It's more like a mini-Boston with some MetroWest and Essex County fishing towns thrown in, but yeah it's safe Dem.

I was just there (coastal Maine); it struck me as being more like a mini-Vermont except a little less resort/hippie-heavy. Much less overtly liberal culture than Vermont, though.

[Adam Griffin]

Maine sort of bucks the trend in a lot of ways; I've always wondered why it seems to vote Democratic more often than not given some of its unusual characteristics.

For starters, it's the poorest state in the NE in terms of median household income; barely better off than KY and in the bottom 7 nationally.

[Seriously?]

Trump wasn't able to win Maine in a Republican primary, he is definitely not winning it in the general.

It was a caucus, but point taken.

[Heisenberg]

New Deal? The state never voted for FDR, not even once, I believe. It also voted for George HW Bush in 1988, but home field advantage, I guess.

[ProudModerate2]

ME-02 maybe.
ME-01 and the entire state .... very doubtful.

But anything is possible.
Kooky LePage as Governor, and strange citizens of Maine (shown below) could produce a trump win.

[IceSpear]

Are people seriously trying to compare ME and WV? HAHAHAHA

Oh right, I forgot IA is a solid R state now because it's white. VT will soon be competitive as well.

[Figueira]

Winning 1 EV is not worth it. ME trending republican is so overrated on this forum. The state trended towards Obama in 2012. It's about as safe as Oregon for the Dems, and ME-02 is as likely Dem as Wisconsin.

Well, he could win 4 electoral votes by winning the whole state. That would be difficult, since ME-01 is basically a more Democratic version of New Hampshire. But not impossible. Remember, in 2008 when we had new candidates, we had large unexpected swings in states like IN, NC, and VA. The map could similarly change this year. LePage has shown the path for Republicans to be competitive in Maine, and all Trump has to do is follow it.

No, ME-1 is like California. No way Trump can win there.

It's more like a mini-Boston with some MetroWest and Essex County fishing towns thrown in, but yeah it's safe Dem.

I was just there (coastal Maine); it struck me as being more like a mini-Vermont except a little less resort/hippie-heavy. Much less overtly liberal culture than Vermont, though.

I know, I've spent a lot of time there. When I said California I was referring to the PVI (they're both D+9). Southern coastal Maine is pretty unique; I don't think it's directly comparable to any other region, but it is a bit like Vermont.

[dax00]

Are people seriously trying to compare ME and WV? HAHAHAHA

Oh right, I forgot IA is a solid R state now because it's white. VT will soon be competitive as well.

That doesn't sound like something a West Virginian would say.

[IceSpear]

Are people seriously trying to compare ME and WV? HAHAHAHA

Oh right, I forgot IA is a solid R state now because it's white. VT will soon be competitive as well.

That doesn't sound like something a West Virginian would say.

Why not? Maine is a disgusting liberal hellhole, unlike glorious West Virginia.

[Angrie]

It seems like an appropriate time to re-raise this question and to consider the possibility.

[Angrie]

Oh look, Angrie is back!

Probably mostly not, but we'll see. This election year is too depressing/uninteresting.

[Kingpoleon]

Maine sort of bucks the trend in a lot of ways; I've always wondered why it seems to vote Democratic more often than not given some of its unusual characteristics.

For starters, it's the poorest state in the NE in terms of median household income; barely better off than KY and in the bottom 7 nationally.

The average D. C. Household Income would be in the top 1% of household incomes in Arkansas, IIRC.

[Bismarck]

Maine sort of bucks the trend in a lot of ways; I've always wondered why it seems to vote Democratic more often than not given some of its unusual characteristics.

For starters, it's the poorest state in the NE in terms of median household income; barely better off than KY and in the bottom 7 nationally.

The average D. C. Household Income would be in the top 1% of household incomes in Arkansas, IIRC.

Maine being poor would make it vote more democrat. The states in the south do not vote republican because they are poor. In most states the GOP wins the wealthiest counties.