Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +5

[Ebsy]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf

Clinton: 41
Trump: 36

Obama Favorable/Unfavorable: 47/48
Clinton Favorable/Unfavorable: 48/52
Trump Favorable/Unfavorable: 46/54

Maybe we should create a thread for the tracking poll.

[RFayette]

Those are very high favorable numbers for both Clinton and Trump, but the margin seems about right.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

But but but Fox News and Rassy said Trump is inevitable!!!!!

[Rick Grimes]

this will be a re-aligingment on both sides.

[StatesPoll]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-24517

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf

Sampling of the this Poll is horrible. Overweighted Democrats too much.

Dem+lean Dem=45% | Rep+lean Rep=32%

Despite of this horrible sampling, TRUMP vs Hillary, only +5% spreads for Hillary.
(TRUMP 36% | Hillary 41%)

if Sampling was normal(sth like DEM 38%, REP 34%, Ind 28%)

it was supposed to be  TRUMP 39.76% | Hillary 35.94%


if Sampling was normal, it was supposed to be

Dem+lean Dem=38% | Rep+lean Rep=34% | Independents 28%
(Election 2012, despite of many republican voters didn't vote, it was
Dem 38% Rep 33% Independents 29% )


if Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 5/14-5/18 Poll didn't overweight democrats too much. it could be totally different

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf

Page 12, it says TRUMP got 72% of REP, 10% of Dem, 41% of Independents
Hillary got  6% of REP, 73% of Dem, 22% of Independents

TRUMP:  34%(REP) X 72% + 38%(DEM) X 10% + 28%(Ind) x 41% = 39.76%
Hillary:  34%(REP) X 6% + 38%(DEM) X 73% + 28%(Ind) x 22% = 35.94%

It could be totally different.

Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 5/14-5/18 : Democrats 45% Republican 32% <----- it's a joke

[Ebsy]

Please don't unskew polls. I agree that the partisan sampling is too favorable to Democrats, but that doesn't mean that you can use algebra to "reweight" the poll.

[Seriously?]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-24517

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf

Sampling of the this Poll is horrible. Overweighted Democrats too much.

Dem+lean Dem=45% | Rep+lean Rep=32%

Despite of this horrible sampling, TRUMP vs Hillary, only +5% spreads for Hillary.
(TRUMP 36% | Hillary 41%)

if Sampling was normal(sth like DEM 38%, REP 34%, Ind 28%)

it was supposed to be  TRUMP 39.76% | Hillary 35.94%


if Sampling was normal, it was supposed to be

Dem+lean Dem=38% | Rep+lean Rep=34% | Independents 28%
(Election 2012, despite of many republican voters didn't vote, it was
Dem 38% Rep 33% Independents 29% )


if Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 5/14-5/18 Poll didn't overweight democrats too much. it could be totally different

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf

Page 12, it says TRUMP got 72% of REP, 10% of Dem, 41% of Independents
Hillary got  6% of REP, 73% of Dem, 22% of Independents

TRUMP:  34%(REP) X 72% + 38%(DEM) X 10% + 28%(Ind) x 41% = 39.76%
Hillary:  34%(REP) X 6% + 38%(DEM) X 73% + 28%(Ind) x 22% = 35.94%

It could be totally different.

Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 5/14-5/18 : Democrats 45% Republican 32% <----- it's a joke

I don't think anyone really has their likely voter screen tweaked this early in the process, so there's no real reason to try to skew or unskew anything. You have to take all these polls with a grain of salt.

Hillary! and Trump aren't even technically the nominees yet.

[136or142]

Why are the combined totals for the two candidates so low in nearly all the polls?

[dax00]

Why are the combined totals for the two candidates so low in nearly all the polls?

Because they're both hated tremendously, and people can't decide who is the lesser of two evils.