New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%
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  New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%
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Author Topic: New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%  (Read 2769 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: May 19, 2016, 07:11:41 AM »

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj05192016_Nwh73tr.pdf

kind of a Tight race in Blue States.

1. Results of the Election 2012 in New Jersey
Obama(D) 58.38% | Romney 40.59%  Spreads: Obama +17.79%

2. New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%
Spreads: Hillary +7%

3. New Jersey could be a fightable states for TRUMP in 2016.  if he clear these conditions.

1) if TRUMP unifies the Party fully, And gets sth like 90% support of the Republican
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Republican: TRUMP got 78%, Hillary got 4%)
2) if TRUMP attracts the Reagan Democrats, And then gets sth like 15%ish of the Democrats
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Democrats: TRUMP got 7%, Hillary got 84%)
3) if TRUMP beat Hillary big of the Independents, sth like 55-45
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Democrats: TRUMP got 39%, Hillary got 41%)

to make it He needs to increase +12% of the Rep, +8% of the Dem, +16% of the Independents.

Then He could win the New Jersey.

20%(REP) x 90% + 33%(DEM) x 15% + 47%(Ind) x 55% =
about 49%ish(which would be the winning numbers)

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2016, 07:23:57 AM »

Democrats:
Clinton 84%
Trump 7%

Republicans:
Trump 78%
Clinton 4%

Independent:
Clinton 41%
Trump 39%

Another poll in which is Trump is below 80% among Republicans, yet remains in the game because hes competitive with Indies.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2016, 07:32:38 AM »

NJ will not be competitive, sorry to dissapoint.
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standwrand
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2016, 08:14:20 AM »

NJ will not be competitive, sorry to dissapoint.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 08:19:45 AM »

Is there anywhere Hillary is liked? She's -18 in a state Obama won by 18 points.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 09:34:25 AM »

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2016, 10:52:58 AM »

What sort of janky partisan composition does this poll have?
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Angrie
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2016, 11:13:07 AM »

Maybe this will make Trump think that NJ is close enough that he can win it if he picks Christie as his VP. He'll go all in on the NY area loudmouth persona. Then he picks Christie as his VP, which causes him to lose it by much more.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2016, 11:42:00 AM »

Bernie is +19.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2016, 11:50:19 AM »

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2016, 11:52:54 AM »


When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2016, 12:20:44 PM »

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.
I thought PA was the GOP's fools gold.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2016, 12:30:43 PM »


When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.

Most of Bernie's voters are independents they are not loyal to the party and have no reason to unify.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2016, 12:35:41 PM »

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.

It's a little hard to believe that Bush only lost the state by 6 points, huh?  Trump will lose by double digits, but I think it's possible he'll improve on Romney's pathetic numbers in the state.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2016, 12:40:20 PM »

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.
I thought PA was the GOP's fools gold.

They both are. You get that one or two polls suggesting it's competitive. Until it isn't. Every cycle. Never fails.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2016, 12:56:39 PM »

Yes Jersey will be close. But Kerry won it by six that's as close as its gotton.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2016, 01:15:06 PM »

TRUMP may come in within single digits.
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cxs018
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« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2016, 01:45:24 PM »

MarkBGraham and StatesPoll both return at the same time. We truly are blessed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2016, 07:50:33 PM »

Junk poll!
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2016, 10:36:13 PM »

Hah, good one. Maybe he'll lose by 13-14 instead of 18 this time.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2016, 10:38:57 PM »

New Jersey is one of few northeastern states where the Republicans actually have a respectably consistent floor.  Otherwise, it's fool's gold.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2016, 11:02:25 AM »


When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.

Most of Bernie's voters are independents they are not loyal to the party and have no reason to unify.

Henster, May 2016 "Bernie's Base Hates Hillary, Because Reasons" Journal of Crap I Pulled Out of My Ass, Vol 12, Issue 5. Pg. 24.
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bumpercrop
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2016, 11:18:03 AM »

Another poll where Trump can't poll above the high 30s. SAD!
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2016, 01:17:52 PM »

Many seem to have forgotten how NJ is notorious for having lots of undecided voters who break heavily for the Democrat at the last minute.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2016, 01:24:46 PM »

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.
Trump should lose NJ, but my guess is that it's high single digits as opposed to double-digits. He is an ideal Republican candidate for that state (even though that state is hopeless) -- more liberal on social issues, more conservative on fiscal issues.

Plus the neighbor factor should come into play. He is very well known in that state.
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