The Hillary Downfall

[Kingpoleon]

Will we get a NYC update? I. E. Are Tom Allon, Eric Ulrich, Jared Kushner, or Daniel Donovan, Jr., running?

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back everyone. It is time for a key race alert. Yes, that's right, you are seeing that right. With only a few small precincts in the north remaining, Bill Bolling is up by only 243 votes. Lieutenant governor candidate Bryce Reeves is up only by 1220 votes.
Virginia Governor: (99% in)
Bolling: 50.05% (+243)
Northam: 49.95%

Lieutenant Governor: (99% in)
Reeves: 50.075% (+1220)
Fairfax: 49.925%

In Minnesota, Tim Walz has taken the lead.
Minnesota Senate: (25% in)
Walz: 50.05%
Paulsen: 49.95%

In New York City, the mayoral race is surprisingly close.
New York City Mayor: (24% in)
Bill de Blasio: 52.7%
Tom Allon: 48.3%

King: Republicans were hoping to be able to defeat de Blasio. Their candidate, Tom Allon, is also running as the Liberal Party nominee. While de Blasio felt really confident about his reelection chances, his lead is not particularly large. There is time for Allon to catch up, but not too likely.

Cooper: The results are closer than some thought, but we will probably be able to make a projection soon. Meanwhile, with every last precinct outside the DC suburbs in Virginia counted, it looks like every vote will matter in the governor and lieutenant governor races. Justin Fairfax and Bryce Reeves have both announced that they will concede if they are down after the first count. Bill Bolling and Ralph Northam, however, have strongly hinted that they would contest the results if they are down by a very small margin.

King: In Minnesota, the Senate race truly a nailbiter. Walz is doing well in the Iron Range, and in central Minneapolis and Saint Paul. Paulsen's strength is coming from the Western Twin Cities Metro, and from the northern exburbs. In the Southern part of the state, both candidates are doing equally well. Many counties out west are yet to report, but so are some precincts in the south, and in the Twin Cities. Turnout also seems a bit lower in MSP proper, which is bad news for Walz.

Blitzer: CNN's Election Night 2017 will resume after a few words from our proud sponsors.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back everyone. Here are the final numbers from Virginia. Bryce Reeves win the Lieutenant Governorship by 879 votes. Justin Fairfax has already called to concede.

Lieutenant Governor: (100% in)
Reeves: 50.015% (+879) WINNER
Fairfax: 49.985%

And, on the first count, Ralph Northam squeaks past Bill Bolling with a razor thin lead of 219 votes. Bolling refuses to concede, and demands a recount due to the incredibly thin margin.
Virginia Governor: (100% in)
Northam: 50.01% (+219)
Bolling: 49.99%

In New York City, de Blasio is reelected.
New York City Mayor Final Results
Bill de Blasio: 53%
Tom Allon: 47%

In Minnesota, Paulsen is projected to narrowly win.
Minnesota Senate: (99% in)
Paulsen: 50.39%
Walz: 49.61%

King: Republicans picked up two Senate seats tonight. Here is the map of Senate control as it now stands.

Cooper: Expect Republicans to target the Democratic-held seats in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and maybe even Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida next year. Those will be interesting, competitive races.

55 Republicans
45 Democrats (including Angus King)

[Heisenberg]

The Aftermath
On November 19, 2017, after Virginia's recount is completed, the results are overturned and Bill Bolling is certified the winner, with a final lead of only 209 votes ahead of Northam. He will be sworn in as 73rd Governor of Virginia in January 2018. Northam formally concedes, and announces he will run against Ed Gillespie in the 2018 Senate race.

Meanwhile, in Alabama, the race for the Republican nomination for governor is expected to be exciting. Attorney General Luther Strange announces a run, and has establishment backing, while Chief Justice Roy Moore is running to his right. Unhappy with the direction the nation has been going with regards to LGBT issues, he vows to, if elected, ban homosexuality in the state, even though legal scholars agree that such legislation is unconstitutional. Moore says "We will make Alabama great again by making Alabama straight again and we will purge the state of the damaging disease of homosexuality!" Strange instead runs on far less radical platform. "As Attorney General I have defended the law. And as Governor, I will not push unconstitutional legislation that will be struck down, but I will nonetheless govern as the Christian, constitutional conservative that I am."

Republicans have landed strong recruits for the Senate seats in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana in Marc Racicot, Drew Wrigley, Ann Wagner, and Greg Ballard, who all have slight leads in polls and face no opposition in their primaries. And Democrat Joe Manchin has decided to retire after Republican Congressman Evan Jenkins entered the race. Just to show how Republican West Vorginia has become, Jenkins does very well when tested against a "generic Democrat" in polls.

Early Polling:
Missouri
Wagner: 48%
McCaskill: 43%

Indiana
Ballard: 49%
Donnelly: 42%

Montana
Racicot: 45%
Tester: 43%

North Dakota
Wrigley: 44%
Heitkamp: 43%

West Virginia
Jenkins: 58%
Generic Democrat: 34%

[Heisenberg]

This is the first in a series of three posts to ummarize what's going on (leading up to the 2018 midterms). I also changed the name to something more appropriate.

Summary of the First Two Clinton Years (1/3)[/b]

Budget and Economy

The first two years of Hillary Clinton's presidency were much like the beginning of a third Obama term: Liberal (but not progressive) ideas proposed by the President, met with opposition from Congress. Hillary signs a few executive orders, angering Conservatives.
The FY 2017 Budget was not too different from those from 2015 and 2016. After the budget was passed, Clinton also proposes her agenda to hike taxes as a way to tackle poverty, moving to the left on income inequality after pressure from the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
She shifts more to the left in her second year. Her 2018 budget proposals also include increased spending to repair Infrastructure and put more money into Social Security. To nobody's surprise, that budget is not at all well received by Republicans, many of whom advocate cutting domestic and infrastructure spending to balance the budget. Republicans also hope to raise the Social Security retirement age gradually to 68, but the plan has fierce opposition from Democrats. While Clinton hoped that a more calm first year could help Republicans and Democrats let the polarization cool down, things got worse. With a Senate majority of 5 seats (including 2017 freshman Ed Gillespie and Erik Paulsen), the moderate Republicans are pressured to just support the bill and avoid "obstructionist" labels.
But Congress proposes their own budget, which is oposed by Congress was balanced, but not without controversy: It ends government funding of Planned Parenthood, cuts to social programs and excludes Clinton's tax hikes to tackle income inequality and crumbling infrastructure, while maintaining the 2016 levels of defense spending. Hillary Clinton vetoed the balanced budget, but Democrats and Republicans went back to negotiate and compromise.
In the House, the Main Street Partnership helps it pass, and when it gets to the Senate, there is no filibuster. Five moderate Republicans (Paulsen, Heller, Collins, Murkowski, and McCain) cross the party line to vote yes. (It should also be noted that the first two listed are up for re-election in 2018.)
Also worth noting, despite Democrats Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly being quiet about the bill and asking for more funding to help their states (to no avail), they all vote for it. Spending remains out of control with the deficit being near $500 Billion, as it was last year.

Clinton, Brown, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer try to raise the federal minimum wage to $15, but the bill is easily blocked in Congress. Instead, both sides negotiate and settle with an increase to $9 by January 2019.
Wisconsin's right to work law is ultimately upheld, and Missouri and Kentucky pass ones of their own. Also in Kentucky, Gov. Matt Bevin is finally able to end Kynect after Republicans took control of the Kentucky House for the first time in a century, causing controversy.

Despite the compromises on spending, her attempts to move to the left angered many conservatives as well as moderates. Many were frustrated with the growing debt: $23 Trillion as of October 14, 2018. The economy also starts to crash in mid October 2018, with a mild recession.

[Kingpoleon]

Isn't Mooney generally considered more moderate than Jenkins?

That said, that's a very impressive result for Allon. Maybe he can take down Cuomo.

[Heisenberg]

Isn't Mooney generally considered more moderate than Jenkins?

That said, that's a very impressive result for Allon. Maybe he can take down Cuomo.

Mooney and Jenkins are both young and ambitious, but Jenkins strikes me as the stronger candidate, since he knocked off a longtime Democratic incumbent by 10.7 points, while Mooney won the open seat by only 3.2 points, and only got a plurality of the votes.

[Mike Thick]

Isn't Mooney generally considered more moderate than Jenkins?

That said, that's a very impressive result for Allon. Maybe he can take down Cuomo.

Mooney and Jenkins are both young and ambitious, but Jenkins strikes me as the stronger candidate, since he knocked off a longtime Democratic incumbent by 10.7 points, while Mooney won the open seat by only 3.2 points, and only got a plurality of the votes.

Not to mention Mooney's carpetbagging.

[Heisenberg]

Summary, Part 2/3
Foreign Policy
On foreign policy, Hillary is also much like a third term of the Obama administration. Relations with Cuba become more normalized, and the travel ban is lifted. Public opinion remains mixed, the country remains under the dictatorship of the Castro regime, but Raul promises elections in 2020 (though many are predicting they will be fake, and rigged).
The situation in the Middle East remains complicated. Dealing with Iran and potential violations of the nuclear agreement is another major foreign policy issue. While in the primaries, Clinton took a more pro-Israel stance than Obama ever did as president, her ex-rival Bernie Sanders did not, and even went as far as implying he was neutral on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and named a pro-Palestinian activist as one of his choices for the Democratic Party's 2016 platform-writing committee. As a result, Clinton, under pressure from progressives, toned down her pro-Israel positions. Many American pro-Israel activists are unhappy with this.
The US nevertheless remains a strong ally to Israel (but not as much as Israel and many Americans would want). Iran has also began exporting oil, but suspicion grows as to whether or not they are actually following the terms of the 2015 Nuclear Deal, which is seen as a hallmark of Obama's foreign policy. Most Republican senators want to reinstate lifted sanctions on Iran, especially if they do violate the agreement (as they have violated past agreements).
ISIS has made minor gains since January 2017. Arab forces have been fighting them off, but Americans have been assisting their Arab allies with only airstrikes, no ground troops. Republican Senators wanted to bring in troops to assist the Arabs, saying that it will be key to defeating ISIS, and proposed a bill that would do that, and increase defense spending to rebuild the military. That bill is filibustered by Bernie Sanders, who wants to cut defense spending and shift money to social service spending. (As mentioned in the last post, a compromise was reached.)
North Korea also continues testing long-range missiles, and many say they remain a threat.

[SATW]

I really enjoy this! Can't wait until the next update!

Glad to see Gillespie win a senate seat, and excited for the WV race! Jenkins is definitely the better of the congressional guys to run.

[Higgs]

Pls continue

[Heisenberg]

Summary, Part 3/3
Domestic Policy

As of the Fall 2018, the biggest domestic policy achievements are as follow:
On the issue of gun control, which was a major issue in the 2016 races, early in Clinton's term, a bipartisan group of senators and representatives made a compromise, known as "No Fly No Buy" which banned people on the No Fly and suspected terror lists from purchasing firearms, but also included reforms to the lists and a 14 day appeal window, as suggested by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). While the public in general is happy with the compromise, which many, including Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe will keep guns out of the wrong hands while preserving the right of innocent individuals to own and bear arms for defense, the NRA feels it went too far, and also encourages abolishing gun free zones.
LGBT-related issues have mostly fallen under the radar. Roy Moore, who ran for governor in a platform of banning homosexuality in Alabama, was defeated in the Republican primary by Attorney General Luther Strange, who is heavily favored to defeat Sen. Billy Beasley in the general election. Abortion-related issues have also been generally irrelevant, though more conservative Senators (Cruz, Lee, Paul) hope to eventually cut off Planned Parenthood funding (basically impossible with a Democratic president).
Border security and illegal immigration are major issues, along with refugee resettlement. Conservatives scored a victory in 2016 when the court ruled Obama's executive action (which they called a power grab) unconstitutional. But since the ruling was only 4-4, it simply upheld the lower court's ruling rather than set national precedent.
Illegals continue to swarm through the weak border in large numbers, and Clinton is generally perceived as weak on the border, as Obama was. The border states step up on security, and more money is given to the border patrol. No amnesty, but the number of deportations has not really changed. This is expected to be a major issue going into the 2018 and 2020 elections, and one factor that helped build up the tensions going into the 2018 midterms, all but guaranteed to be the third consecutive Republican midterm waves.

Sorry for taking this long, I actually had this ready for a few days, but forgot to post it. I'm glad you all are following and enjoying it. The next update(s) will be a preview of the 2018 elections, followed by midterm election night coverage.

[Heisenberg]

2018 Election Outlook Part 1A: Governors

Republicans have a record 35-14-1 majority with governorships. Experts predict they'll lose one or two tonight, or possibly break even or even gain one. Democrats have nowhere to go but up, and in four years, when some incumbents will be termed out or retiring, expect Democrats to heavily chip away at the majority, especially if a Republican wins in 2020.

Alabama: Attorney General Luther Strange narrowly defeated highly controversial former Chief Justice Roy Moore in the Republican primary. Strange is heavily favored to defeat Democratic State Senator Billy Beasley in the general. Safe R.

Alaska: Governor Bill Walker, a former Republican elected as an independent, won in 2014 by defeating incumbent Republican Sean Parnell, who had low approval ratings after merging his campaign with Democrat Bryon Mallot, uniting liberals, moderates, Alaska natives, and semi-conservatives. In his bid for reelection, fearing a challenge from the right, Walker returns to his old party. Democrats nominated Anchorage mayor Ethan Berkowitz, and Republicans nominated Berkowitz's predecessor, Daniel A. Sullivan (no relation to Senator and fellow Republican Daniel Scott Sullivan) for Lieutenant Governor, again. Safe R.

Arizona: Doug Ducey (R) is running for reelection. His Democratic challenger is former 1st district US Representative and 2016 Senate nominee Ann Kirkpatrick. Though expected to give Ducey a good run for his money, Arizona remains Republican-leaning, and Latino turnout, which hit an all-time high in 2016 is expected to significantly drop. Pundits call the state "fool's gold" for Democrats. Ducey leads the RCP average 50-47. Lean R.

Arkansas: Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is running for reelection, facing weak opposition in a now solidly Republican state. Safe R.

California: Since the governorship was open, and California Democrats have a large bench of ambitious politicians, Republicans were hoping the Democratic field would be split between several candidates so they could win both runoff spots. This, however, ended up not being the case.
Primary:
Ashley Swearingen (R) 38%
Gavin Newsom (D) 25%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) 24%
John Chiang (D) 11%
Others 2%
After Swearingen declared candidacy, no other major Republican candidate ended, and with the Republicans heavily coalesced around her, she finished first place, and the second runoff spot, went to Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom who edged out Antonio Villaraigosa by 1% to get it. The only realistic way Republicans were going to win would have been an R vs R runoff. Safe D.

Colorado: In the race to replace term-limited John Hickenlooper (D), Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) faces former State House Speaker, 2010 Senate candidate, and 2014 Congressional Challenger Andrew Romanoff (D). Stapleton starts with the fundraising and name recognition advantages, and he also boasts having won statewide twice, something Romanoff has never done. After 12 years of Democratic control of the State House, Coloradans look to move the other way. Lean R.

Connecticut: Attorney General George Jepsen won the Democratic primary primary after Dan Malloy chose to retire. Two-time loser Tom Foley (R) gives it one more try, easily winning the primary due to a severely weakened bench. Lean D.

Florida: Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) cleared the field long before the race even began, and is favored to defeat Gwen Graham, owing to the weak organization of the Democratic Party in the state. Though Graham was thought to be the strongest Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee in years, Putnam has a better network, and he also has tailwinds due to the anti-Democrat national environment (some call it the 10th year itch). Putnam leads the RCP average 49-47. Tilt R.

Georgia: Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle (R) faces former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) in the race to replace the term-limited Nathan Deal (R). The RCP average going into the election is 50-48, in this heated election largely along racial lines. Pundits say people should not be fooled by the tight margins, and that in recent elections, Republicans have underperformed in polls, and that Georgia, like Arizona, is fool's gold for Democrats. Lean R.


Hawaii: David Ige (D) is favored for reelection after Duke Aiona and Charles Djou decline to take him on, leaving Republicans with only a sacrificial lamb as token opposition. Safe D.

Idaho: Lieutenant Governor Brad Little (R) faces only a weak Democratic challenger in this heavily Republican state. Safe R.

Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R) is facing a challenge against Treasurer Michael Frerichs (D). Rauner, swept into office in the 2014 wave against unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn, remains unpopular due to gridlock early on. His opponent campaigns as an opponent of the "corrupt Chicago elite" and tries to paint Rauner as an obstructionist. He also hopes, as a downstater, he can chip away at Rauner's margin downstate, key to his 2014 victory. Due to the Democratic lean of the state, Rauner lags in polls. Lean D.

Iowa: Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds (R) faces 2nd District Congressman Dave Loebsack (D) in the race to replace Terry Branstad (R), who has served six terms as governor ver his career, this time retiring for good. Reynolds is popular and known across the state, while Loebsack has never won statewide before and is considered by some to be too liberal for the quickly Republican-trending state. Lean R.

Kansas: Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) faces 2014 Democratic nominee Paul Davis in the race to succeed term-limited archconservative Governor Sam Brownback. The 2014 race was closer than expected, but Schmidt is considered far less divisive than Brownback, and Davis never quite saw the surge he saw four years ago. Likely R.

Maine: Chellie Pingree (D) faces State Senate President Mike Thinodeau (R) to replace term-limited Gov. Paul LePage, who is the Republican Senate nominee. Northern Maine is trending Republican, but can that be enough to offset the liberal lean of the first district. There is no major third party candidate in this race. Tilt D.

Maryland: Larry Hogan (R) faces Baltimore Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D) in his reelection race. Despite the state's Democrtic tilt, Hogan is immensely popular. Lean R.

[Kingpoleon]

Maybe De Blasio will run in 2018 and we could get a repeat against Allon.

Sorry for talking about him so much in your TL, but I think Tom Allon doesn't get nearly enough recognition for his electoral chances.

[Heisenberg]

Outlook Part 1B
(Had to split due to character limit)

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (R) faces State Sen. Benjamin Downing (D). Baker, like Hogan, is a popular Republican in a typically Democratic state, and only faces a B-list challenger. Not to mention the fact that all but one of Massachusetts's governors since 1990 have been Republicans. Likely R.

Michigan: Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley (R) is running against Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel (D) to succeed Rick Snyder (R), whose approval ratings fell during the early 2016 Flint Water Crisis. His approval numbers have slowly climbed up since, but they have not fully recovered. That issue, however, has mostly faded and is basically irrelevant for the campaign, which is primarily jobs-oriented in this Rust Belt state. Even as 2018 is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans, this will be one of the harder ones to hold, as Michigan usually alternates between the two parties. Tilt D.

Minnesota: Two-term MN-06 incumbent and unsuccessful 2010 Republican nominee Tom Emmer is making another run for governor after the man who defeated him, Former Senator Mark Dayton, is retiring to try to win back his old Senate seat. He faces three-term Attorney General Lori Swanson (D). In a state that also features competitive House and Senate races, this is a key gubernatorial battleground. Tossup.

Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) is running unopposed. Safe R.

Nevada: Former Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki (R) is facing former Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) in the race to replace the extremely popular, term-limited Republican Brian Sandoval. Nevada, though a swing state, is relatively Republican at the state level, Sandoval is helping the Republican candidates campaign, and the Democratic bench is weak. Miller is slightly tarnished from his 2014 loss in the attorney general race, which he was originally expected to win handily. RCP Average: Krolicki leads 49-47. Lean R.
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu (R) is running for reelection against Chris Pappas (D). Sununu has the edge, his approval ratings are high, his handling of the "angry women riots" in the state are praised nationally, and of course his last name helps (his father is a former governor, his brother a former senator. RCP Average: Sununu leads 50-46. Lean R.

New Mexico: Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez (R) faces Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) in the race to replace popular Governor Susana Martinez (R). While Sanchez is popular, he trails in polls, and New Mexico, like Michigan, tends to alternate between Democratic and Republican governors. Lean D.

New York: Andrew Cuomo survived his primary challenge from the left against Zephyr Teachout (unsuccessful challenger in 2014, failed 2016 Democratic nominee for NY-19), whose run infuriated the national Democratic establishment. Progressives were disappointed that Teachout, who has been pretty unsuccessful, was the one to primary Cuomo. They felt a better challenger could have won. Cuomo now appears to be a bit damaged after surviving the primary 55-45 (a surprisingly high showing for progressive firebrand Teachout). Expected to face a strong challenge, Chris Gibson and Tom Allon, the strongest potential challengers, both decline, though the latter says he is open to running in 2022. This leaves the Republicans with only B-listers to choose from. They ultimately nominate former Secretary of State and Lieutenant Governor Candidate Christopher Jacobs. Unless the Green Party gets enough votes to spoil the election, Cuomo will get a third term like his father. Likely D.

Ohio: Former Senator and incumbent Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) faces former AG Richard Cordray (D) in a rematch of the 2010 Attorney General race. While Cordray was considered a strong recruit, DeWine has been leading nearly every poll, and has been running a stronger campaign. But Ohio is a competitive swing state, so anything could happen. RCP has DeWine up by 1.5%. Lean R.

Oklahoma: Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (R) faces State Rep. Scott Inman (D) in the race to replace term-limited Mary Fallin (R) in this heavily Atlas Blue state. Safe R.

Oregon: Kate Brown (D) is running for her first full term. She faces former Oregon Republican Part Chair Allen Alley, who has ran statewide before but has never won. Likely D.

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is running for reelection. His opponent, Jim Cawley (R) faces an uphill challenge despite the (likely) national wave due to his ties to unpopular former governor Tom Corbett, reflected in Wolf's 2 point lead on RCP. Wolf was one of only two people to defeat an incumbent Republican governor in 2014. Tilt D.

Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) is running for reelection against Ken Block (R). Raimondo won in 2014 with only a plurality. Though Democratic at the federal level, Rhode Island is competitive at the state level, and there are no major third party candidates this time, since the former Moderate Party has coalesced around its founder, Ken Block, running as a Republican. Lean D.

South Carolina: Lieutenant governor Henry McMaster won the Republican primary, the real contest in this heavily polarized and Republican leaning state. He is expected to defeat 2014 Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Bakari Sellers. Safe R.

South Dakota: Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) is running against Brendan Johnson (D), son of longtime former Democratic Senator Tim Johnson. Despite his ties to his famous father, the Republican lean of the state is probably too much for him to overcome, and Jackley is favored. Likely R.

Tennessee: US Senator Bob Corker wins the nomination (he and term-limited governor Bill Haslam plan to switch jobs). He is heavily favored to win in this solidly Republican state. Safe R.

Texas: Incumbent Greg Abbot (R) is challenged by former Houston Mayor Annise Parker (D). Safe R.

Vermont: Incumbent Phil Scott (R) is favored to win reelection, especially since he faces two major liberal opponents: former State House speaker and unsuccessful Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee (who narrowly lost to Republican Randy Brock 50.1-49.7) Shap Smith (D) and Progressive Party nominee Anthony Pollina, his party's leader in the state Senate. History also favors Scott: No Vermont governor has lost reelection since 1962. Likely R.

Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) will face another tough challenge against Dane County Executive Joe Parisi (D). Will the voters give him four more years? Or are they ready for a change? Polling seems to suggest the former, but we'll see. Lean R.

Wyoming: Republican nominee and incumbent State Treasurer Mark Gordon (R) faces only token opposition in one of the nation's most Republican states. Safe R.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe De Blasio will run in 2018 and we could get a repeat against Allon.

Sorry for talking about him so much in your TL, but I think Tom Allon doesn't get nearly enough recognition for his electoral chances.

Nope, no Allon or de Blasio running. But Allon is a strong potential candidate. It tok me a while to fully decide some of the gubernatorial matchups. For some reason, I see Cuomo getting a third term like his father did, then being in big trouble for a fourth. But I could be wrong. Thanks for your interest.

[Heisenberg]

2018 Election Outlook Part 2: Senate
In the final weeks leading up to the midterms, Republicans hope to hold their control of many state governments, and make big gains in both Houses of Congress. Many races are competitive, and both
sides are competing heavily for many seats. While polls give Republicans a slight edge in many races,
Democrats are hoping they can fix their “midterm problem.” With a political environment that shaped up similar to those of 2010 and 2014, pundits say a third consecutive midterm Republican wave is all but certain.

Many seats are in play, particularly those in green and light blue.

Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) is running for reelection. He faces Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema, who was damaged in the primary by the more liberal Terry Goddard, who attacked her moderate House record and how she "flip-flopped" from a very liberal record in the state legislature. With border security a major issue,
Hispanic turnout down, and the "10-year itch," Flake is heavily favored. The DSCC pulled out of this race by late September. Likely R.

California: Jungle primary:

John Garamendi: 35%
Abel Maldonado: 34%
Loretta Sanchez: 25%
Others: 6%
Garamendi did well (he's won statewide before) and is favored to win. Maldonado is moderate and
well-known, but considered a weak candidate (especially in California). Safe D.

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) is running for reelection. His opponent is former Lieutenant Governor
Michael Fedele. Likely D.

Delaware: Tom Carper (D) is running for a fourth term. Though Delaware Republicans have a few
candidates who can compete statewide, Carper is extremely popular and entrenched. Safe D.

Florida: Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson was widely expected to run for reelection, but announces
retirement due to health reasons, making this only the second open Senate seat race in Florida since
2004. With primaries on both sides hotly contested, Republican Ron DeSantis (2016 Republican Senate nominee and election winner changed to Rubio) and Democrat Alex Sink emerge as the nominees. Key race, tossup.

Hawaii: Mazie Hirono (D) is running for a second term, facing no opposition. Safe D.

Indiana: Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard (R) is challenging vulnerable Democrat Joe Donnelly.
Donnelly won in 2012 after his opponent made a major gaffe. The moderate, inoffensive Ballard has the edge in this Republican-leaning state. Lean R, pickup.

Maine: Angus King (the sole independent Senator) is running for a second term against term-limited
Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Though Maine is trending Republican (especially Northern Maine), King is
very popular. No Democrat is running; King wins nearly all Democrats due to his voting record. Likely I.


Maryland: Key race. Ben Cardin decided to retire. John Sarbanes emerged as the front runner for his
father's old seat. Republicans quickly coalesced around 2016 primary runner-up Chrys Kefalas. A gay
millennial Republican, Kefalas is giving Sarbanes the run of his life. Campaigning as a moderate alongside popular Governor Larry Hogan, this race quickly turned into a tossup. In the final days, after
the lead flipped between the two candidates, Sarbanes began pulling away with an RCP average of +1.2. Anything can still happen. Still, a pure tossup.

Massachusetts: Liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren is expected to win reelection, against her weak
Republican opponent. Safe D.

Michigan: Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) is facing Attorney General Bill Schuette (R). Though Stabenow was though to be safe, the race is tight. Pure tossup.

Minnesota: Erik Paulsen (R) is running for a full term against governor Mark Dayton (D), who is hoping to reclaim his old seat. This is a key race, pure tossup.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) is running for reelection with minimal opposition. Safe R.

Missouri: Democrat Claire McCaskill is out of luck! Rep. Ann Wagner (R) holds a consistent lead in polls, and makes no gaffes on the campaign trail. Democratic interest groups have already abandoned McCaskill. Likely R, pickup.

Montana: Key race. Jon Tester, the DSCC chairman may be out of luck against popular former governor Marc Racicot (R). Both sides are competing here, but Racicot has the edge. Tilt R, pickup.

Nebraska: Incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R) is running for reelection against unsuccessful 2014
Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Chuck Hassebrook. Safe R.

Nevada: Dean Heller (R) faces former State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D). Heller leads in all polls, has better campaign managers, and remains popular. Likely R.

New Jersey: Embattled Senator Bob Menendez was defeated in the Democratic primary by Rep. Frank
Pallone. He is favored to defeat Republican Kim Guadagno, whose path to victory relied on facing the troubled Menendez. Lean D.

New Mexico: Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) faces Las Cruces-based State Sen. Lee Cotter (R), who represents a swing district. Though recent New Mexico Senate races have been close, Heinrich should win. Likely D.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) wins renomination. Republicans nominate Wendy Long (again). Safe D.

North Dakota: Key race. Freshman Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is being challenged by former Republican
Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley. Heitkamp remains popular, but Wrigley is in dead heat, and usually
even a bit ahead in polls. He has raised lots of money, and has tied Heitkamp to Democratic leadership
and emphasized how her views are out of sync with many North Dakotans. Tilt R (pickup).

Ohio: Pat Tiberi (R) is running for a full term. Tim Ryan declined a run, leaving Democrats with
fire-breathing former State Sen. Nina Turner, the unsuccessful 2014 Secretary of State nominee.
Democrats really fumbled this one away. Safe R.

Pennsylvania: Key race. Bob Casey Jr. faces a tough challenge from Rep. Charlie Dent, a moderate
Republican from a swing district. Both the DSCC and NRSC have spent heavily here. Pure tossup.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is running for reelection. He faces minimal opposition from 2016 RI-01 Republican nominee Russell Taub. Safe D.

Tennessee: Term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam is running for Bob Corker's Senate seat as part of the "job
swap." Like Corker, he faces weak opposition. Safe R.

Texas: Ted Cruz is running for reelection ran for reelection, but shockingly fell in the primary to wealthy businessman, attorney, and Congressman Michael McCaul, who ran with establishment support and crossover appeal, attacking Cruz, and citing his leadership in the Homeland Security committee, and refusing to endorse Trump in 2016, saying that Cruz kept divisions in the party that led to Trump's 2016 loss. McCaul faces 2014 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis. Safe R.

Utah: Former Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. entered the race to replace fellow Republican Orrin Hatch,
quickly clearing the field. He faces unsuccessful 2016 Democratic candidate Jonathan Swinton. Safe R.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I-turned-D) is running again (cross-endorsed by the Vermont Progressive Party). Scott Milne is running against him. Though Milne got 41% of the vote in 2016 against Leahy, that is probably his ceiling, and part of his campaign was that Leahy had served for 7 terms, and was running for an 8th. Sanders is only running for a 3rd, term, which he pledges will be his last. Safe D.

Virginia: Republican Ed Gillespie is running for a full term. His opponent, Ralph Northam, defeated Bill
Bolling by a handful of votes on the first count in the 2017 governor race, but the small margin prompted a recount, overturning the results. Gillespie is considered a strong campaigner and fundraiser; he boasts a much larger war chest than Northam. And Gillespie can run up big margins in the southern and western parts of the state while performing well in the north (his home base). Lean R.


Washington: Key race. Democrat Maria Cantwell is running for reelection, facing her toughest challenger yet: Former Attorney General Rob McKenna, who has won statewide in 2004 and 2008, and outperformed Romney in his 2012 gubernatorial run. Tossup.

West Virginia: Democrat Joe Manchin decided to retire, and immediately after, Republican Congressman Evan Jenkins immediately announced he'd run for the seat. And he is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Natalie Tennant, who was crushed by Shelley Moore Capito four years ago in her run for the other seat, and lost reelection as Secretary of State two years ago to well-funded businessman Mac Warner. This should finish off West Virginia's transition to a solid Republican state. Safe R, pickup.

Wisconsin: Key race. Democrat Tammy Baldwin, one of the most liberal senators, faces a strong
challenge from moderate Republican Sean Duffy of the swingy 7th district. Pure tossup.

Wyoming: Republican John Barrasso is running for reelection. No serious opponent. Safe R.

[Heisenberg]

2018 Election Outlook Part 3: The House

After the 2016 Elections, Republicans maintained their House majority. During the 115th Congress, three special elections were held. Republicans not only defended the seats of Pat Tiberi (OH-12) and Erik Paulsen (MN-03) who became Senators (succeeded by David Goodman and Julianne Ortman, respectively), but they also picked up the open MN-01 seat with Jeremy Miller. House control is 238-197 going into the elections. Below is an outlook of the key races.

NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter is once again in trouble as she faces State Sen, Jeanie Forrester. The “angry women” riots are an issue in the campaign. While both candidates are female, Forrester is far more popular among men. Who will turn out more? Calm men, or angry women?
NH-02: Former Republican representative Charlie Bass is trying to win his old seat back. Originally considered hopeless, he now has a strong chance at winning after a Bernie Sanders-endorsed Green Party Candidate Angie Woesmann (fictional, name is a play on Angry Woman) surges. Popular especially in towns bordering Vermont, Woesmann is expected to play a spoiler effect and keep Annie Kuster from winning reelection. Pundits say this seat is more likely to flip than the other seat in New Hampshire, despite being less Republican and the GOP nominee being a man.
NY-22, 24: Both races are competitive, and feature rematches from 2016.
NJ-05: State Sen. Joe Pennacchio was defeated by fellow State Sen. Steve Oroho in the Republican primary, after his controversial “fascist manifesto” from 2007 resurfaced. Oroho is now favored to defeat Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat who narrowly defeated Scott Garrett in 2016 in this Republican-leaning district.
PA-15: Incumbent Republican Charlie Dent is giving up this seat to run for the Senate. While Pennsylvania’s districts were gerrymandered by Republicans in 2011, many seats, including this one, are expected to be competitive when open. State Sen. Pat Brown (R) faces former Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan in this tight race.
WI-07: Sean Duffy is vacating this seat to run for the Senate. Republicans recruited State Sen. Jerry Petrowski, while Democrats nominate State Sen. Janet Bewley.
MN-02: Angie Craig (D) won the open seat in 2016, and faces a tough challenge from 2014 Republican Senate nominee Mike McFadden.
MN-07: Republicans rejoice as longtime Democrat Collin Peterson finally retires. Former State Sen. Torrey Westrom makes a third run for the seat, and is the favorite this time.
MN-08: Stewart Mills III is back for his third attempt to unseat Democrat Rick Nolan, While he came short the first two times, this time he is slightly up in polls and hopes to prevail.
IA-02: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) is running for this seat for the fourth time. This time, with an open seat, favorable environment, and a Republican trend, she is the favorite.
FL-09: Nobody saw this one to be competitive. Dena Grayson (D), who succeeded her husband, is in trouble, with her husband’s controversies haunting her, and ethics investigations of her own. Former Congressman Ric Keller is making a strong run, this is roughly the seat he represented during the Bush years.
FL-18: Patrick Murphy hopes to win back his old seat from freshman Republican Rebecca Negron, but is expected to fall short as his popularity has sunk since his unsuccessful Senate run and controversy over him lying on his résumé.
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo, a Republican who narrowly lost this seat in 2016 is running a comeback bid against Joe Garcia. This is a race to watch.
CO-06: Mike Coffman, a conservative Republican, faces his strongest challenge ever: Morgan Carroll, who narrowly lost to him in 2016, is back for a rematch. This time, she has more support, while Coffman and his wife (who was defeated in the AG primary by George Brauchler) are embattled in several scandals, and Coffman, a lightning rod for controversy, may actually go down this year in what may be a bright spot for Democrats. No Green Party candidate is running, to the pleasure of Democrats.
TX-23: Will Hurd is back for a rematch, and hopes lower Hispanic turnout, a better environment, and his CIA credentials in a time of national security crisis help him return to Congress.
NV-03: Democrats target Republican Mike Roberson (who won in this timeline), though he seems to be safe.
NV-04: Republicans are trying to win this seat back, but this time, without Sandoval on the ballot, and Democrats alert, luck may not be on their side.
AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally is challenging Victoria Steele to regain the seat she narrowly lost in 2016.
AZ-09: In the race to succeed Kirsten Sinema in this swing seat, David Schapira (D), a former State Senator, faces State Rep, Travis Grantham (R) in this competitive district.
CA-10, 25, 39: Republicans Denham, Knight, and Royce, respectively, are all attempting to regain their old seats after losing them in 2016. With a far more favorable environment, and midterm level turnout, they are favored to return to Congress.
CA-03: In the race for Democrat John Garamendi’s seat, 2014 Republican nominee Dan Logue, who outperformed expectations and kept the race closer than expected, is running again. His opponent is State Sen. Lois Wolk.
CA-07: Scott Jones (R) won this seat in 2016, being one of two Republicans (the other being Don Bacon of Nebraska) to defeat an incumbent Democrat. His opponent, Ami Bera, was embattled in a campaign finance scandal. This time, however, Jones has a scandal of his own, regarding allegations of sexual harassment. His opponent is Democratic State Sen. Richard Pan.
CA-24: Republicans hope to defeat first-term Democrat Salud Carbajal, and nominate former assemblyman Katcho Achadjian.
CA-36: Republican State Senator Jeff Stone is back for a rematch after performing above expectations in his unsuccessful 2016 bid against Democrat Raul Ruiz. California is one place where Republicans are on the offense with House districts, and this is the only Democratic-held seat with an R+ PVI (aside from the three lost in 2016),
OR-05: In an upset, failed 2016 primary challenger Dave McTeague defeated moderate Democrat Kurt Scharader in the primary. McTeague is now the underdog in the race against State Sen. Brian Boquist in this R+1 district.
WA-01: With a competitive Senate race, Republicans are putting this seat in play even though DelBene is doing well and has survived tough challenges, including against Pedro Celis in 2014, who challenges her again.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome everybody, I'm Wolf Blitzer, You are watching CNN's live coverage of the 2018 midterm elections. Here is a map of poll closing times across the country.

Red - 7:00 PM EST
Orange - 7:30 PM EST
Yellow - 8:00 PM EST
Lime- 8:30 PM EST
Dark Green - 9:00 PM EST
Sky Blue - 10:00 PM EST
Blue - 11:00 PM EST
Navy - 12:00 AM EST

The first polls have just closed right now at 7 PM Eastern. We can already project that Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Peter Welch, and Gov. Phil Scott are all reelected in Vermont. In South Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Henry McMaster will succeed fellow Republican Nikki Haley as governor. No party changes so far. John, can you pull up the magic wall and show us what we have so far in the uncalled races.

King: Here are the first numbers we have in the following races.
Florida Governor (3% in)
Putnam: 50.5%
Graham: 47.5%

Florida Senator (3% in)
DeSantis: 51%
Sink: 48%

Indiana Senator (4% in)
Ballard: 52%
Donnelly: 48%

Virginia Senator (4% in)
Gillespie: 58%
Northam: 42%

Georgia Governor (3% in)
Cagle: 53%
Reed: 47%

New Hampshire Governor (6% in)
Sununu: 52%
Pappas: 47%

Cooper: In Virginia (notorious for its heavy Republican counting bias), Gillespie is opening up with his largest lead yet. Georgia and New Hampshire are close, still a lot of areas withstanding.

King: And Florida is also going to be very interesting. Not too many areas in, but both Putnam and DeSantis are performing better than their opponents. Democrats ended up being stuck with Alex Sink, who has not been campaigning well, as their candidate.

Tapper: Reportedly, Graham wishes she was running for the Senate seat instead of the governorship and she mentioned in an interview with that she felt like Putnam was a tougher opponent than DeSantis.

King: We'll watch how the votes come in across key regions in Florida, checking on the I-4 corridor and  margins in South Florida.

Blitzer: We'll be back soon with more updates. Stay with us, and thanks for watching CNN.

[Kingpoleon]

Pat Toomey, Pat Browne, Ryan MacKenzie, Justin Simmons, Julie Harhart, and Gary Day are the likely a Republicans to succeed Dent, besides maybe his wife. Lisa Boscola, Don Cunningham, and John Callahan are the most likely Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

Pat Toomey, Pat Browne, Ryan MacKenzie, Justin Simmons, Julie Harhart, and Gary Day are the likely a Republicans to succeed Dent, besides maybe his wife. Lisa Boscola, Don Cunningham, and John Callahan are the most likely Democrats.

Thanks for catching that. It appears I accidentally forgot to include the PA-15 matchup in the description. Pat Browne vs. John Callahan is the matchup. Also, Toomey ended up winning reelection (unless you meant his wife or one of his brothers).

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Alright everybody, it's 7:30 PM Eastern and more states have closed their polls. We are ready to make several projections: In Ohio, Pat Tiberi has won a full Senate term, defeating Nina Turner. No projection yet in the governor race. Dave Yost and Steve Austria are the new attorney general and treasurer, respectively, of Ohio, and no House seats change parties. In West Virginia, Republicans win all three House seats, while the Senate race is too close to call. Evan Jenkins leads Natalie Tennant 61-39 with 1% of the vote in. In North Carolina, where there is no governor or Senate race, all incumbents are reelected. In Indiana, we project that Greg Ballard has defeated Joe Donnelly to become their next Senator.

King: Here are some updates
Florida Governor (8% in)
Putnam: 50%
Graham: 48.5%

Florida Senator (8% in)
DeSantis: 50.5%
Sink: 49%

Ohio Governor (2% in)
DeWine: 50.5%
Cordray: 49%

Virginia Senator (9% in)
Gillespie: 56%
Northam: 44%

Georgia Governor (11% in)
Cagle: 51%
Reed: 49%

New Hampshire Governor (8% in)
Sununu: 51%
Pappas: 47.5%

Cooper: Not too many changes, the uncalled races do appear to be tightening. In about 20 minutes, many more states will close their polls, and we'll have a lot more races to look at. We may also be able to make projections in a few of the uncalled races. Stay with us, we'll return after a break.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: It is now 7:45 PM Eastern, and we ready to provide our viewers with updated numbers. But first, we are going to make a major projection.

Evan Jenkins has defeated Natalie Tennant to become the next US Senator from West Virginia! This is historic on several accounts. First, he is only the second Republican elected to the US Senate since 1956, after Shelley Moore Capito in 2014. Second, West Virginia will have an all-Republican Congressional delegation, House and Senate, since 1923. Third, this means Republicans will now hold all of West Virginia's statewide office (federal and state), and lastly, Evan Jenkins will become the second West Virginian ever (the first being Democrat Robert C. Byrd, who previously held this seat) to serve in both houses of the West Virginia State Legislature and both houses of US Congress.
Now, John King will show us some numbers on the magic wall.

King: In the swing state of Ohio, here is how the governor election is shaping up.

With only 6%, DeWine is up 51-48%, significantly improving in the eastern counties. Cordray's margin is larger in Franklin County (Columbus, his home), but let's see if it holds up.

Here is the 2010 Ohio Attorney General Race Map for comparison (same matchup, DeWine won).


Compared to the different 2010 Ohio Governor race map.

DeWine is making massive inroads in Eastern Ohio, where Strickland once represented in Congress. That area is trending Republican, and reelected Bill Johnson to the House of Representatives.

Moving to Virginia, Ed Gillespie's lead is not dropping as quickly as expected. He's likely to run up big margins outside the north and the Black areas, while not getting swamped too badly in the DC suburbs. Gillespie leads 55-44 with 20% of the vote in.

In New Hampshire, the governor race is close, as are both House races. Republicans currently lead in all three, though in the second district it's only with a plurality, and a very liberal third party candidate will likely be a spoiler and hand the seat over to Republicans.

Both Florida races are still close.

Cooper: When polls close in about 10 minutes in the western part of the panhandle and we get numbers in from those counties, that should give Republicans a boost.
Florida Governor (17% in)
Putnam: 49.5%
Graham: 48.5%

Florida Senator (17% in)
DeSantis: 50.5%
Sink: 48%
DeSantis is doing better. He has been great at campaigning and fundraising, and Sink has not exactly been the best of candidates. Graham is putting up a much tougher fight, but there's still a lot of areas withstanding.

Blitzer: Alright, that'll do it for now. Soon after our next commercial break polls will close in a bunch of other states, so we'll have a whole bunch of other races to look at as well as more projections. Stay with us, CNN's coverage of the 2018 midterms will continue momentarily.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back everybody. The clock now reads 8 PM Eastern, and as the polls close in 16 states, we have a bunch of new projections to make. In Maine, Independent Angus King (caucuses with Democrats) defeats Paul LePage in the Senate race. Representative Bruce Poliquin wins reelection, the gubernatorial and 1st Congressional District (Summers vs. Bellows) races are too close to call. In Massachusetts, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Governor Charlie Baker are both reelected, as well as all 9 House incumbents. In Connecticut. We project Senator Tom Carper will be reelected in Delaware, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland wins another term. In Tennessee Bill Haslam and Bob Corker are elected Senator and Governor, respectively. Luther Strange succeeds Governor Bentley in Alabama. Todd Lamb and Derek Schmidt are the new governors of Oklahoma and Kansas, respectively. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott is reelected in a landslide, and Michael McCaul handily defeats Wendy Davis to win Ted Cruz's Senate seat. Governor races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut are all too close to call, as are Senate races in Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey. and Pennsylvania. A major story to report is the Senate race in Missouri, where Ann Wagner will defeat Claire McCaskill, and it looks like the margin will be massive.

Cooper: McCaskill is probably the Lincoln of 2018.

King: What does she have to do with Abe?

Cooper: Not that Lincoln, Blanche Lincoln, who served two terms in the Senate before being defeated handily.

King: I remember. She was defeated by 21 points! Four years later, her colleague Mark Pryor lost by 17 points. Looks like McCaskill could get Lincolned.

Blitzer: Let's say Blanched instead, to make it clear which Lincoln we're referring to.

King: Anyway, changing what's on the magic wall, here is a map of the House races, as of this hour. Dark-colored races have already been called, light colors mean that party is leading, and gray means polls are still open.


Cooper: Not too many surprises, competitive races include TX-23, IL-10, VA-10, PA-15, NJ-05, and a few across Florida. A few other lighter colored races are not too likely to change hands, but we are not making a projection yet just to be safe.

Blitzer: Perhaps the only upset is in NH-02, where Charlie Bass returns to his old seat, helped by a Bernie Sanders-backed third party candidate who spoiled the race. This is the second time in two years that something like this happens in New Hampshire, after the governor race in 2016.

King: Here are the governor races, as of this hour.

Senate races

Republican victory
Democratic victory
Too close to call
Polls open
No race

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Continuing our coverage, here are some updates for key races.

Florida Governor (24% in)
Putnam: 50%
Graham: 48.5%

King: The numbers in the Florida governor race have been steady. Meanwhile, DeSantis is pulling away in the Senate race.

Florida Senator (24% in)
DeSantis: 51%
Sink: 48.5%

Ohio Governor (25% in)
DeWine: 51%
Cordray: 48%

Virginia Senator (22% in)
Gillespie: 55%
Northam: 45%

Georgia Governor (20% in)
Cagle: 50%
Reed: 47%

Cooper: Cagle is probably the favorite to finish first, but he needs to finish with a majority to avoid a runoff.

New Hampshire Governor (18% in)
Sununu: 50.5%
Pappas: 48%

Maine Governor (6% in)
Pingree: 50%
Thibodeau: 49%

Illinois Governor (4% in)
Frerichs: 50.4%
Rauner: 49.6%

Michigan Governor (6% in)
Calley: 55%
Hackel: 45%

Michigan Senator (6% in)
Schuette: 55%
Stabenow: 45%

King: Both Michigan races have the Republican up by 10, but it should be noted that Michigan has a counting bias similar to those in Virginia and Colorado. We need to wait longer to get a good idea on how those races are shaping up.

Pennsylvania Governor (3% in)
Wolf: 50.4%
Cawley: 49.6%

Pennsylvania Senator (3% in)
Dent: 50.2%
Casey: 49.8%

Maryland Senator (2% in)
Sarbanes: 51.1%
Kefalas: 48.9%

Blitzer: The Maryland Senate race should be interesting. Nobody thought it would really stay this close until last month. This could very well be the perfect storm for Republicans to win the seat.

New Jersey Senator (4% in)
Pallone: 52%
Guadagno: 47%

Cooper: Republicans were hoping to pick this seat up, but their hopes relied on facing embattled Senator Bob Menendez, who was defeated in the primary. Republicans also would have preferred Frank LoBiondo or Thomas Kean, Jr. to run, but both declined.

Blitzer: Next, we'll see what the panel has to say.