The Hillary Downfall

[Mike Thick]

This is so freaking good. I'm predicting President Trump, via a win in Iowa (although Colorado isn't off the table -- we all know how much they hate Hillary).

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: The last two states, both too close to call. Clinton, with her large lead in California (and several northeastern states) has carried the popular vote. Remember that many of Trump's wins (Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida) were within 2% of the vote.
Iowa (98% in)
Clinton: 49.1%
Trump: 49.0%

Colorado (73% in)
Clinton: 49.0%
Trump: 48.7%

Gianforte wins in Montana
Gianforte 49.2% WINNER
Bullock: 49.0%
A Libertarian takes the rest.

And in California, name recognition and ad blitzing paid off.
Harris 55% WINNER
Sanchez 45%

[tmthforu94]

Keep it up!

[MT Treasurer]

I have no idea if there's normally a counting bias in Iowa.

There is. Usually, the most Democratic precincts (Eastern Iowa, Des Moines, etc.) come in first, with the Republican areas coming in very late. That's pretty much always been the case.

[Heisenberg]

I have no idea if there's normally a counting bias in Iowa.

There is. Usually, the most Democratic precincts (Eastern Iowa, Des Moines, etc.) come in first, with the Republican areas coming in very late. That's pretty much always been the case.

I didn't know that. I know of counting biases in Virginia and Colorado (the most Democratic parts of both always come in last). Both states came in accordingly in this timeline. In Iowa I followed no particular pattern.

[libertpaulian]

I have no idea if there's normally a counting bias in Iowa.

There is. Usually, the most Democratic precincts (Eastern Iowa, Des Moines, etc.) come in first, with the Republican areas coming in very late. That's pretty much always been the case.

I didn't know that. I know of counting biases in Virginia and Colorado (the most Democratic parts of both always come in last). Both states came in accordingly in this timeline. In Iowa I followed no particular pattern.

Interesting, so IA is like PA or IL where it's all Philly and Chicago with a Dem landslide at first that then declines from there.  You had Clinton down most of the night and now pulling into what's basical;y a tie.  So let's just say that Trump did unusually well with the urban, Catholic areas in the east but he's hurting with the Dutch Calvinist Cruz farmers in the west?  That's a totally believable story.

I didn't know there were that many Calvinists in Iowa.  I thought Iowa was full of Lutherans like the rest of the Upper Midwest (WI, MN, ND, SD, NE).

[Heisenberg]

Final Results:
So Clinton narrowly won both Iowa and Colorado, while winning the popular vote 51-48, with other candidates taking the rest. Trump concedes the race, and did not demand a recount in any of the close states. He said that Clinton won the race fair and square, and won the popular vote. He thanked all his supporters for helping his campaign, and said it was great running for President, even if the results didn't end up his way. However, Trump said that while he accepted the loss, he would be looking forward to returning to work at the Trump Organization, while founding a group called the Donald Trump Foundation for Prosperity, dedicated to promoting conservative causes, raising awareness for border security, and helping the economy grow. Trump says that he is happy that the Senate and House remained in Republican control. Trump also advises the Senate to play their cards right, and aim for legislation that is great for America. He says that it is time to move on, and focus on future races. He says that Republicans need to look into the state of Virginia for gains in 2017, and says then focus on defending governorships and state legislatures in 2018. He also says, go on the offensive in the House and especially the Senate in 2018, there is a lot of ripe ground for pickup! Then find a really strong candidate to take down Hillary in 2020 and finally take back the country.

Meanwhile, in Louisiana, Charles Boustany defeats Foster Campbell 55-45 in the Senate runoff. And Kasich announces that his former Congressional aide and successor as OH-12 Representative Pat Tiberi will replace Sherrod Borwn. So for the 115th Congress, Republicans will have a 53-47 majority.

In Virginia, the Republicqn nomination for the governor race was shaken up by the late entry of surprise candidate Bill Bolling, who quickly cleared the field. Ed Gillespie then announced that should either Virginia Senator get a job in the Clinton administration, he would run in the special election, and if not, he'd run against Tim Kaine in 2018.

Meanwhile, Clinton is expected to face a difficult term, with one of her first challenges being how to deal with the Angry New Hampshire Women, who held violent protests across their state in protest of Maggie Hassan being replaced by a man as governor (yes, this is happening, more on that later). Incoming Gov. Chris Sununu has said he will bring in the national guard to break it up. Clinton, however, says "s"Stay calm, I'll write executive orders to get through a lot of this. Congress is not going to tarnish my legacy or bring down this nation." Silent on a lot of issues, she is expected to face a rough term, and Republicans are already getting ready to make gains in the 2018 Senate Elections.

Next update: New Hampshire protests, Clinton's cabinet picks, and the first year of Clinton's term.

[Heisenberg]

I have no idea if there's normally a counting bias in Iowa.

There is. Usually, the most Democratic precincts (Eastern Iowa, Des Moines, etc.) come in first, with the Republican areas coming in very late. That's pretty much always been the case.

I didn't know that. I know of counting biases in Virginia and Colorado (the most Democratic parts of both always come in last). Both states came in accordingly in this timeline. In Iowa I followed no particular pattern.

Interesting, so IA is like PA or IL where it's all Philly and Chicago with a Dem landslide at first that then declines from there.  You had Clinton down most of the night and now pulling into what's basical;y a tie.  So let's just say that Trump did unusually well with the urban, Catholic areas in the east but he's hurting with the Dutch Calvinist Cruz farmers in the west?  That's a totally believable story.

Sorry, I had no idea how Iowa votes came in. It was kind of random, sorry, my bad..

[Wells]

So, basically, Trump got freiwaled.

[Heisenberg]

So, basically, Trump got freiwaled.

What do you mean? If you mean that the so called "Democratic firewall" held up, then yes, it barely did. I honestly had a tough time writing the last update, but I'll enjoy writing next updates.
The Clinton Cabinet:
Note: This is my best attempt. I know not to poach the Senate too much, so many of these had other jobs in the Obama administration, and got either moved or promoted (from Deputy Secretary). Many of them are not too important to the timeline.
Secretary of State: Tim Kaine
Treasury: Sarah Bloom Raskin
Defense: Robert Work
Attorney General: Amy Klobuchar
Interior: Michael Connor
Agriculture: Michael Scuse
Commerce: Shaun Donovan
Labor: Julian Castro
HHS: Sylvia Burwell (reappointment)
HUD: Nani Coloretti
Transportation: Victor Mendez
Energy: Gina McCarthy
Education: Linda Darling-Hammond
Veterans Affairs: Bob McDonald (token Republican, reappointment)
Homeland Security: Susan Rice

Gov. Dayton appoints Tim Walz to the open seat. And in Virginia, McAuliffe appoints his Chief of Staff, Reagan to the seat, clearly as a placeholder, clearly in prep for a run in the special election.
Note: In this timeline, McAuliffe is not under investigation at the time of the appointment, the probe into his controversial finances do not occur until later in this timeline.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, who won the NC Gubernatorial Election?  Cooper or McCrory?

And did Mike Pence win reelection in Indiana?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, who won the NC Gubernatorial Election?  Cooper or McCrory?

And did Mike Pence win reelection in Indiana?

Didn't both win reelection?

[Heisenberg]

BTW, who won the NC Gubernatorial Election?  Cooper or McCrory?

And did Mike Pence win reelection in Indiana?

Didn't both win reelection?

Correct. Both won reelection.

[Heisenberg]

Note: Tragic events that happen are not meant to offend anyone. They happen in real life, and are important to the plot.

Very early in January, as New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu was sworn in, many women gathered in Concord, New Hampshire to protest and spread word of their cause. Many women in hordes shouted "We are angry!" They held up signs saying phrases like "Men have held power for too long!" and "Keep women in control of New Hampshire!" This was unlike any protest ever seen before. The women believed that the GOP was in a "War on women," which Governor Sununu denounced as fakes. He said "I believe that the democratic process of voting is essential to our nation, and I believe that the people should vote for the candidates who are well-qualified, share their values, and are fit for the job." He also denounced using broad labels, and said that racism and sexism are both wrong. Then, a group of angry women booed, and threw objects towards him. Then, as security was forcing the women away, they put up a fight, and started physically punching the security guards. Another group of angry women started to incite violence on the streets, and vandalized street signs.

President Clinton was soon asked what her thoughts were. She replied that they were brave to stand up their thoughts, and implied that there was nothing wrong with playing the "woman card."

On February 5, 2017, in Richmond, Virginia, an illegal immigrant from Central America who had previously been deported for violent crimes had once again crossed illegally, and was living there when he broke into a house, stole a lot of money and jewelry, and escaped. He was later caught by the police, and he reached for an officer's gun. The criminal is then shot, and later died from the wounds. Trump then comes out and says "This is why the country made a mistake not electing me! I would handle the crisis of our weak borders. What is Hillary going to do? Nothing!"

Clinton says "While the country does need to be safe, we need to show love. There has been a lot of police brutality, and maybe we should pass laws to police the police. We should get really harsh on guns. I've come to think that we should really do all we can to limit the number of guns out there. The man who was killed tried to get that gun, and would've done terrible things with it. Agree?"

Republicans in Congress are furious, and many people view Clinton very negatively, and here term is off to a rough start. Public opinion against Clinton is high, and a majority of Americans believe the US should remain harsh on crime, secure the border, and protect second amendment rights. The majority of the people think that the police really need to protect themselves, and that gun control laws are ineffective. Meanwhile, there is also a move to give veterans better care, and cut the benefits for illegals.

Also, Clinton re-nominates Merrick Garland, and is confirmed on an agreement that, when the next spot opens up, Clinton nominated a judge with "advise and consent" from the Judiciary committee.

Early 2017 Polling, Virginia
Governor
Bolling: 48%
Northam: 46%

Senator
Gillespie: 46%
McAuliffe: 45%

Lieutenant Governor
Reeves: 45%
Fairfax: 44%

Attorney General
Obenshain: 48%
Herring: 47%

Clinton Approval Rating
Disapprove: 54% (+10%)
Approve: 44%

[Heisenberg]

LMAO, this is great. I wonder how Climbing Maggie and Jeanne Shaheen react to the NH riots?

The two give a joint speech to supporters thanking all the angry women for making sure to turn out to vote for them. The Sununus, Ayotte, and Forrester denounce the riots as acts of hate. Ayotte and Forrester refuse to be tied to them, saying "We are calm women who run for office to stand up for our values, not values of sexist hate-mongers." Jeanie Forrester announces she will run for NH-01 in 2018 against Carol Shea-Porter. Guinta declines a run, and endorses Forrester.

[Heisenberg]

February 9, 2017
BREAKING! Gov. Terry McAullife (D-VA) under FBI/DoJ investigation (basically what's going on now in real life, in this timeline, it all breaks out in Feb. 2017). This pretty much puts to rest McAuliffe's run for Kaine's seat in the special election. His approval ratings plummet, and the Democratic nomination for the seat becomes a four-way battle between Paul Reagan, Anne Holton, Creighton Deeds, and Tom Perriello. Gillespie leads all four in hypothetical match ups. In Minnesota, Republicans get their dream candidate, Rep. Erik Paulsen from district 3 to run, and he and Walz are in dead heat. In the race for MN-01, State Sen. Jeremy Miller (R) barely leads Sharon Erickson Ropes (D), the person he defeated to win his state senate seat. Tim Penny considered attempting a comeback as an independent, but decided against it.

[Heisenberg]

Sorry for not updating in a while. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about it, I've just been busy with other things. Anyway, here's a big update. I hope you all enjoy it!

In the News:
In New Hampshire, the angry women are at it again!
Drudge Report 2017: Headline, May 4, 2017
Divorce rates in New Hampshire hit all-time high. Women say they are "angry at their husbands." Not all women are angry, though. Many have been arrested for their riots across the state, and another group of 50 were arrested for plotting to kill Governor Sununu and attack the State Capitol. As the riots died down, former Republican Congressman Charles Bass announces a run against Ann McLane Kuster, in his second comeback. Women are angry, but he makes a speech, denouncing the riots, and stating that "gender is irrelevant when voting. Men and women are qualified to run for office, and discrimination of any kind is bad. There is no Republican war on women. I believe in free speech, but protests should be peaceful, and disrespect of elected officials is wrong. I hope to return to Congress to represent what New Hampshire's second district truly is: We are calm, law-abiding citizens who truly believe in equal opportunity." As the National Guard helps keep things under control while New Hampshire is in a state of emergency, Gov. Sununu, former Senator John E. Sununu (his brother), Ayotte, Bass, and Forrester resort to wearing bulletproof vests and hiring bodyguards to protect them, since they've received death threats.

May 6, 2017: ISIS attacks in London. 32 killed, 3 of the 6 attackers confined to have entered the UK as Syrian refugees. This once again raises concerns over the vetting process.

Back in Washington, Hillary Clinton has been under fire. Because Congress is not willing to pass bills she wants, she has signed a few executive orders, most notably ones extending those signed by Obama (primarily guns and amnesty). Meanwhile, in the wake of the surge in illegal immigration, refugee admittance (and the FBI once again confirms that screening has not really stepped up as much as Obama and Clinton wanted), and crimes on the rise, Republicans in Congress pass the Safety First Act (relating to amnesty, immigration, borders, and refugee acceptance) in the wake of the London attacks, and it passes both houses (roughly on party lines). Clinton vetoes it, saying she will continue Obama's goal of accepting more refugees into the country. The bill is sent back to Congress, but fails to be overridden. Meanwhile, members of Congress in both houses and both parties are working on a budget plan that can be passed, and look to avoid a shutdown. With Clinton's approval ratings in the toilet, pundits and analysts feel like 2018 may be a third consecutive midterm Republican wave, and the 2017 elections will be an early bellwether. Clinton is just seen as a third Obama term.

2017 Election Outlook

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, after two terms of Christie, Stephen Sweeney (D) leads Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno (R), giving Democrats a bright spot. Since Republicans are slightly favored to pick up the Virginia governorship after troubled governor McAuliffe leaves, there will probably be no net change in governorships by party control. In 2016, Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ-05) narrowly lost reelection in the R+4 district after being attacked for making some offensive comments targeted at gay Republicans. Republican State Sen. Joe Pennacchio, who has ran for US Senate in the past, aspires for higher office, and lives in the district has all but announced a run in 2018.

In Virginia's "free for all" Democratic Special Senate primary, Creighton Deeds comes out on top and wins the right to challenge Gillespie in the special election. Gillespie leads the polls, likely due to the fractured Democratic field and bitterly-fought four way primary and the early unpopularity of the Clinton administration.

2017 Virginia Special Senate Democratic Primary
Deeds: 30%
Holton: 27%
Perriello: 25%
Reagan (Appointed Incumbent): 18%

RCP Polling Averages, June 28, 2017

Senate (VA)
Gillespie: 48%
Deeds: 45%

Governor (VA)
Bolling: 49%
Northam: 45%

Lt. Gov (VA)
Reeves: 47%
Fairfax: 46%

Attorney General (VA)
Obenshain: 48%
Herring: 47%

Governor (NJ)
Sweeney: 49%
Guadagno: 46%

Senate (MN)
Paulsen: 48.5%
Walz: 47.5%

House (MN-01)
Miller: 48.5%
Erickson Ropes: 47.5%

Clinton Approval Rating
Disapprove: 65% (+20)
Approve: 35%

Direction of the Country:
Wrong Track: 72%
Right Direction: 28%

Also, do New Jersey and Minnesota usually have counting biases? I need to know.

[Heisenberg]

Election Night 2017
Blitzer: Good evening everyone! Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2017 Elections! Tonight, the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey are at stake, as well as the Class 1 Senate seats in Virginia and Minnesota. In addition, we will also cover the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general of Virginia, and representative for Minnesota's first congressional district.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Here are a few exit poll numbers from New Jersey:
Governor:
Sweeney: 50.5%
Guadagno: 49.5%

Has Chris Christie done a good job as governor?
Yes: 47%
No: 53%

His approval ratings have been gradually climbing up over the last year, but more people still dissapprove him than approve.

King: Let's look at a few more numbers, shifting to the State of Virginia.
Clinton Approval Rating:
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 59%

McAuliffe Approval Rating:
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 70%

Senate:
Gillespie: 52%
Deeds: 47%

Governor:
Bolling: 50.5%
Northam: 49.5%

Lieutenant Governor:
Reeves: 50.5%
Fairfax: 49.5%

Attorney General:
Obenshain: 53%
Herring: 47%

Cooper: And the third state we'll be covering tonight, Minnesota:

Senate:
Walz: 50.1%
Paulsen: 49.9%

House, MN-01:
Miller: 52%
Erickson Ropes: 48%

King: Republicans are hoping that tonight will be their night. They are hoping to pick up the governorship, lieutenant governorship, and attorney general office in Virginia, as well as Senate seats there and in Minnesota. A House seat in Minnesota is up for grabs as well. They are also hoping to hang on to the governorship in New Jersey.

Blitzer: It is now 6:58 PM Eastern. Polls are just about to close in Virginia, and the first numbers are coming right after a short break.

[Heisenberg]

Senate: (1% in)
Gillespie: 56.5%
Deeds: 43.5%

Governor: (1% in)
Bolling: 57%
Northam: 43%

Lieutenant Governor: (1% in)
Reeves: 56%
Fairfax: 44%

Attorney General: (1% in)
Obenshain: 57%
Herring: 43%

King: Here are our very first numbers from Virginia. All four Republicans are up big. However, all the precincts that have reported so far are from very conservative areas in Districts 6 and 9 (which is Bolling's home base). This is usually the case, and we expect these numbers to significantly narrow throughout the night, especially when the northern counties start reporting.

Cooper: However, Gillespie is doing better than he was three years ago when he nearly unseated Warner, so this is already a good sign. He needs to win the counties he lost by about a point or two, and narrow his margin of loss in the northern part of the state if he wants to win.

Blitzer: We'll be back with our coverage momentarily.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back to our coverage. It is 7:30 PM Eastern and we have more numbers in.

Senate: (18% in)
Gillespie: 56%
Deeds: 43%

Governor: (17% in)
Bolling: 56%
Northam: 44%

Lieutenant Governor: (20% in)
Reeves: 55.5%
Fairfax: 44.5%

Attorney General: (19% in)
Obenshain: 56.5%
Herring: 43.5%

King: Not much change. Much of the far western portion of the state is in, and some numbers are coming in from Congressional districts 5 and 7. We'll get a better idea of how this election turns out as we get numbers from the DC suburbs, as well as Black precincts in the eastern and central parts of the state.

Cooper: As expected, the strong counting bias in Virginia is showing. Very soon, the numbers will really tighten, and we can get a much better idea of where the races stand. It will be very interesting to see what the numbers in the north, and in he Hmapton Roads area will be. Stay with us, we'll be right back!

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back to our coverage. It is 7:50 PM Eastern, and the Virginia races are starting to tighten up.

Senate: (36% in)
Gillespie: 57%
Deeds: 42%

Governor: (37% in)
Bolling: 55%
Northam: 45%

Lieutenant Governor: (38% in)
Reeves: 44.5%
Fairfax: 45.5%

Attorney General: (38% in)
Obenshain: 56%
Herring: 44%

King: Not much change. Much of the far western portion of the state is in, and some numbers are coming in from Congressional districts 5 and 7. We'll get a better idea of how this election turns out as we get numbers from the DC suburbs, as well as Black precincts in the eastern and central parts of the state.

Cooper: Herring's approval numbers are in the toilet after the McAuliffe scandal, which he was revealed to have strong ties with, intensified, combined with how he dealt with the so-called "Richmond Robber" from February (the illegal who was shot, anti-police violence activists claim it was race-based, pro-police groups say it was for the policeman's defense) put him in danger.

King: Of the three statewide elected officials from 2013, was also the one who got the lowest percent of the vote, so low that a recount was required. Obenshain is seeking a rematch tonight, and so far he's doing better than he did four years ago.

Blitzer: Well be right back. New Jersey polls will close soon. We will have updates in just a few minutes.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back to our coverage. It is 8 PM Eastern, and the polls in New Jersey have just closed. Further south, numbers in Virginia are coming in fast, and the map is filling in. Consequently, the races really look more competitive now.

Senate: (53% in)
Gillespie: 53%
Deeds: 47%

Virginia Governor: (54% in)
Bolling: 53.5%
Northam: 47.5%

Lieutenant Governor: (55% in)
Reeves: 53.4%
Fairfax: 47.6%

Attorney General: (56% in)
Obenshain: 55.6%
Herring: 44.5%

Cooper: The races are very close. The attorney general race is not as close. As you can see on the map, even some of the counties in the north show narrow Republican leads, but that will obviously change when the other precincts start to report.

King: Here are the very first numbers in from New Jersey. No major counting bias seems obvious here. We'll see how these numbers change.

New Jersey Governor: (2% in)
Sweeney: 54%
Guadagno: 46%

Blitzer: Thanks for watching, we'll be right back, and have more analysis. Stay with us.

[Heisenberg]

Cooper: It is 8:25 PM Eastern, and we are abut to have a special interview with Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the chairman of the NRSC. But first, let's check on the results in Virginia and New Jersey.

Senate: (69% in)
Gillespie: 51.5%
Deeds: 48.5%

Virginia Governor: (68% in)
Bolling: 51%
Northam: 49%

Lieutenant Governor: (70% in)
Reeves: 52.4%
Fairfax: 47.6%

Attorney General: (70% in)
Obenshain: 54.9%
Herring: 45.1%

King: Except for Herring, all the Democrats are closing in. Now let's switch to New Jersey.

New Jersey Governor: (20% in)
Sweeney: 52%
Guadagno: 48%

The race is close, but Sweeney leads, as he did in exit polls. The 80% still out is probably about evenly split between Sweeney and Guadagno, but still a good enough amount of swing precincts left, which is why we can't make a call just yet. Back to you Anderson.

Cooper: Welcome to CNN, Senator Wicker! How are you doing tonight?

Wicker: I'm doing great! Thank you very much for having me on CNN!

Cooper: It's our pleasure. Senator Wicker, how do you feel about the two special Senate races tonight?

Wicker: Tonight provided Republicans a unique opportunity to expand the majority. At the NRSC, we worked hard to help Gillespie and Paulsen elected. We focused on driving turnout in the rural, more conservative parts of Virginia and Minnesota, and for Gillespie, we advised him on ways to improve from his first Senate campaign from three years ago. We also aired ads in Minnesota attacking Walz's very liberal record, primarily in moderate parts of the state. Paulsen contrasted this with his more moderate record, and he has been consistently up in polls with independents, which is a great sign. We also played ads attacking Walz's vote on the failed Safety First Act.

Cooper: The latest polls show Gillespie slightly up against Deeds, but Paulsen slightly trailing Walz. How do you feel about these races?

Wicker: I feel really good about both, and I think Gillespie and Paulsen will both pull through. Gillespie ran unopposed in his primary, while Democrats were split four ways before Deeds emerged. Deeds lost the 2009 governor race by a huge margin, while Gillespie nearly pulled an upset three years ago when he was expected to loose by double digits. And Paulsen is doing well among independents and has more crossover support than Walz. I think he can narrowly pull this one off.

Cooper: Do you have anything to say about the governor races?

Wicker: I think Republicans will pick up the Virginia governorship. The state is not nearly as left-leaning as some pundits think. It remains very competitive, and if anything I think it is slightly Republican leaning. Cook's new PVI for it is R+2, the same as Florida and Ohio. While both are competitive in presidential races, they are pretty Republican leaning in midterms. I know midterms are different, but still. Troubled outgoing Democratic governor McAuliffe is unpopular, as is Clinton, so I think Bolling can win this one. In New Jersey, I would say we probably lose that one. Over there they usually alternate between the two parties for governor, and after eight years of Christie, Sweeney will probably win. It's still amazing that governor races are pretty competitive in New Jersey, despite the Demcratic lean.

Cooper: And, as the chairman of the NRSC, how do you think next year's races will go?

Wicker: Obviously I'm focused on my reelection, which I see little to no problem with, but we're also looking at a lot of seats to pick up. Republicans only have 9 seats to defend (as of now), while Democrats have to defend a lot more. We're already getting recruits, and the Demcorats are going to have a tough time. Plus, it's a midterm, and Clinton is very unpopular. We think Trump's views were winning positions, but that his rhetoric sunk him. Democrats are really going to see this in the midterms, and I think there's a good chance a wave is coming.

Cooper: Anything else?

Wicker: That's about it. Thank you Anderson, it was great being here, have a good evening.

Cooper: You too, Sen. Wicker. We are about to interview his Democratic counterpart, Jon Tester, who, like Wicker, is up for reelection next year, but is expected to face a strong challenge. Let's see how the races stand, at 7:45 PM.

Blitzer: Alright, here are the current standings in Virginia and New Jersey.

Senate: (77% in)
Gillespie: 51.7%
Deeds: 48.3%

Virginia Governor: (77% in)
Bolling: 51.2%
Northam: 48.8%

Lieutenant Governor: (76% in)
Reeves: 52.3%
Fairfax: 47.7%

Our first projection of the night. We oroject Mark Obenshain has defeated Mark Herring to become Attorney General of Virginia.

Attorney General: (77% in)
Obenshain: 53.8% WINNER
Herring: 46.2%

New Jersey Governor: (32% in)
Sweeney: 51.6%
Guadagno: 48.4%

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back to our coverage. By now (8:59 PM) we can make two major projections.

First, Demcrats pick up the governorship in New Jersey.
New Jersey Governor: (47% in)
Sweeney: 51.5% WINNER
Guadagno: 48.7%

Also, the Republicans pick up the open Senate seat in Virginia.
Senate: (90% in)
Gillespie: 50.9% WINNER
Deeds: 49.1%


King: Most of the precincts in the north have come in. Half of the ones still out are in the northern part of the state, but the other half are more conservative areas that still haven't reported. The governor and lieutenant governor races are both very tight. Still too close to call.

Virginia Governor: (89% in)
Bolling: 50.6%
Northam: 49.4%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor: (91% in)
Reeves: 50.4%
Fairfax: 49.6%

Now that it's 9 PM Eastern, we have our first numbers in from Minnesota.
Minnesota Senate: (1% in)
Paulsen: 50.1%
Walz: 49.9%

Minnesota House, District 1: (1% in)
Miller: 50.9%
Erickson Ropes: 49.1%

Blitzer: We'll return

Cooper: Welcome to CNN, Senator Tester! How are you doing tonight?

Tester: I'm fine! Thank you for having me on CNN!

Cooper: So, Ed Gillespie just picked up an open seat in Virginia, and Paulsen is expected to put up a strong fight in Minnesota. As the chairman of the DSCC, what is your take?

Tester: I'm still very bitter over the fact that Clinton chose Sherrod Brown as her running mate, allowing John Kasich to appoint a Republican (Pat Tiberi) to that seat. Now Tiberi runs as an incumbent next year for a full term. That cost one seat, then we lost another (in Virginia), and now we may lose yet another seat in Minnesota. We tried hard to campaign, but in a low-turnout off-year, and early frustration with the Clinton administration, we faced strong headwinds.

Cooper: What do you think about next year's races?

Tester: Of course, I have a reelection race next year. I know my seat is one Republicans are heavily targeting, but I've won some close races. This will be a real challenge, but I think I can pull it off.

Cooper: It will be very tough, Republicans are heavily targeting your seat, along with seats in North Dakota, Missori, Indiana and West Virginia, as well as other seats that they think they have a chance. Democrats will clearly be playing defense.

Tester: I think we have a decent chance. Our incumbents are very strong, and have shown that there are still enough people willing to split their tickets. It is not as bad as it seems. Here at the DSCC, we'll just focus on races we think are winnable. And that means defending the most vulnerable seats.

Cooper: Anything else?

Tester: Not really. Thank you Anderson, it was great being on here. Have a great evening.

Cooper: You too, Sen. Tester.

Blitzer: Alright, it's 9:15 PM time for an update in Virginia and Minnesota.

Virginia Governor: (97% in)
Bolling: 50.2%
Northam: 49.8%

Lieutenant Governor: (97% in)
Reeves: 50.3%
Fairfax: 49.7%

Minnesota Senate: (13% in)
Paulsen: 50.2%
Walz: 49.8%

King: The three uncalled races are all very close.

Blitzer: We have a major projection: Republicans also gain an open House seat in a bellwether district (that usually votes a tad more Republican than the national average).
Minnesota House, District 1: (42% in)
Miller: 51.4% WINNER
Erickson Ropes: 48.6%

We'll be back shortly.

Comments? Predictions?