NH-WBUR: Clinton leads Trump by 2
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  NH-WBUR: Clinton leads Trump by 2
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Author Topic: NH-WBUR: Clinton leads Trump by 2  (Read 2950 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 18, 2016, 04:52:48 AM »
« edited: May 18, 2016, 04:55:25 AM by Mr. Morden »

WBUR poll of NH, conducted May 12-15:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/05/Topline-2016-05-WBUR-NH-General-1.pdf

initial preference:
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

including leaners:
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%


initial preference:
Sanders 53%
Trump 36%

including leaners:
Clinton 54%
Trump 38%


If Romney ran as an Indy:

initial preference:
Clinton 36%
Trump 30%
Romney 20%

including leaners:
Clinton 37%
Trump 33%
Romney 21%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2016, 05:06:32 AM »

inb4 you know who declares this a junk poll. But I doubt that there are that many undecided voters.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2016, 05:10:32 AM »

Fun fact: more millenials voted for TRUMP in the NH primary than for Sanders.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 05:35:45 AM »

In the last couple of weeks I have seen states get closer in most polls either for Clinton or Trump wins. Obama-era polarization may be ending. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2016, 08:20:13 AM »

Crosstabs:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/05/Crosstabs-2016-05-WBUR-NH-General-1.pdf

Clintons narrow lead is due to the fact that she gets more crossover votes than he does.

Democrats
Clinton 82%
Trump 9%

Republicans
Trump 73%
Clinton 14%

Independents
Clinton 42%
Trump 41%
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2016, 08:58:49 AM »

Junk. The Trumpster won't win NH.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2016, 09:28:43 AM »

inb4 you know who declares this a junk poll. But I doubt that there are that many undecided voters.


NH women ADORE the Clintons and they DESPISE Trump. Trump has a better chance of winning NY and IL than NH. How can he win the state if he only gets 10% of angry women???
Can you stop your hatred of New Hampshire, it is getting on my nerves and it is mad annoying.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2016, 10:31:07 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by MassInc on 2016-05-15

Summary: D: 44%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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RFayette 🇻🇦
RFayette
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2016, 12:07:03 PM »

Also worth noting that all undecideds are (male?) Bernie supporters who will vote for Clinton in the end. So Clinton probably wins NH 54-42, even if she loses the election narrowly or in a landslide. NH is Safe D, period. It would take a 45+ state landslide for Trump to barely win it.

No.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2016, 12:08:56 PM »

Next week - Clinton +12
Week after - Trump +7

WBUR polling has wild, erratic swings.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2016, 12:47:00 PM »

But, but, it was told that TRUMP could not win New Hampshire....
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2016, 06:52:58 PM »

We already had polls a while ago that showed that NH would be a close swing state with Hillary as the nominee, and safe D with Bernie.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2016, 07:39:42 PM »

Next week - Clinton +12
Week after - Trump +7

WBUR polling has wild, erratic swings.

That's WMUR not WBUR, two different pollsters.
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Angrie
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2016, 11:15:12 AM »

Just wait for the Daisy ads. NH did not react well to the prospect of Sarah Palin as commander in chief. They will not react well to the prospect of Trump as commander in chief once the prospect becomes more clear and real.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2016, 11:57:24 AM »

We already had polls a while ago that showed that NH would be a close swing state with Hillary as the nominee, and safe D with Bernie.
Of course NH is going to be close. It's an open election and NH is a swing state with a slight tilt D. To state otherwise is blind partisanship.

Women may allegedly LOVE Hillary!, but men likewise allegedly hate her under that logic.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2016, 12:11:44 PM »

But...TN Volunteer told me NH wasn't a swing state and that Trump could win CA  more easily!

FACE IT, people...NH is a SWING STATE and will be for the foreseeable future.

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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2016, 04:40:43 PM »

Trump can only win NH if he wins White NH men by Deep South like margins. That being said, why is Clinton losing 18-to-29 year olds by 14 points (47%-33%) in this poll? It's Trump's best age group. They also favor Ayotte over Hassan by 30 points in the Senate race, lol. Are young NH voters less sexist and angry?
The small subsample size would be my guess. As well as the youngins' are more likely to think that the Bern! they felt turned into an STD compliments of crooked Hillary!
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Rick Grimes
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2016, 06:15:46 PM »

NH is a lean GOP state obama won because he was considered more independent same with iowa i think trump will win here because of the primary results but sanders would win it against trump.
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dax00
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2016, 07:18:13 AM »

I'd love to see how ballistic Atlas would get if Trump were to win NH.

Also, Ayotte > Hassan.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2016, 11:51:29 AM »


He's not winning it in the poll...?  Lol.
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RFayette 🇻🇦
RFayette
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2016, 12:47:50 PM »

NH is a lean GOP state obama won because he was considered more independent same with iowa i think trump will win here because of the primary results but sanders would win it against trump.

Has TNVolunteer met you yet? Tongue
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RR1997
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2016, 01:08:57 PM »

Trump will lose here by at least 30 points. He will lose us angry NH women by a very large margin.
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