Or the race is much closer than people think? If we're so quick as to think New Mexico --> lots of Hispanics --> must be a large Trump lose, then our analysis is lazy and flawed. Gary Johnson takes about evenly from R's and D's.
I do think Clinton will win by more, but at the moment, Clinton has not united the party, Trump has (despite all the talk of politicians hating him, Republican voters like him, and that's what matters).
There have been multiple AZ polls showing a close race. If Trump had united the party and/or Hispanics were not heavily against him, he'd be leading there easily.
