What are the Clinton-Trump Battleground states?

[Young Conservative]

This is my personal opinion, what is yours? Explain with maps if you like

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Va, CO, NV, Iowa and NH.

[BlueSwan]

I honestly don't know. I'm inclined to just pick the usual states, but Trump is such an odd candidate that the usual map could change somewhat. We can't really rely on any polling yet either. We won't get even semi-reliable polling until Clinton is the presumptive nominee (yes, I KNOW that she really is the presumptive nominee, but Sanders-land is still denying this and as long as they continue to do that, the party won't coalesce around Clinton).

[Unimog]

Hi,

it's not CO, FL and VA. These go to Clinton this cycle.

Trump needs to hold on to NC, AZ and GA.

He should attack in PA, WI; IA, MI and (of course) OH.

This is  his only path to victory.

[Panhandle Progressive]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-13/battleground-state-registration-gives-democrats-early-edge

[Ronnie]

Battlegrounds in gray:

[Kingpoleon]

129 electoral votes are up for grabs, while states like NC, FL, and WI are all leaning one way or the other. I'll say Clinton has a 206 - 203 advantage.

[Wells]

Clinton 279 (169 Safe, 32 Likely, 78 Lean)
Trump 191 (92 Safe, 61 Likely, 38 Lean)
Tossup 68

I think the most realistic Trump victory scenario would be for him to get all Republican states, all of the tossups, and either Virginia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Virginia seems the most likely, which would give Trump a 272-266 electoral college victory. The popular vote may be a little different, though.

The most realistic Clinton victory scenario would be for her to win all the Democratic and toss up states on the map and then maybe Arizona, Georgia, or both. Winning both would give her a 374-164 victory over Trump.

[The Other Castro]

No Toss-Up map:

[Xing]

[Fritz]

Didn't Nebraska just pass a bill that would make their EV winner take all?

[Virginiá]

Didn't Nebraska just pass a bill that would make their EV winner take all?

It failed to pass.

[Mehmentum]

[Wisconsin+17]

Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Texas, Utah and Alaska.

[Senator Spark]

Dark Red- Safe Clinton
Lighter Red- Likely Clinton
Pink- Lean Clinton

Dark Blue- Safe Trump
Lighter Blue- Likely Trump
Baby Blue- Lean Trump

Clinton- 254
Trump- 206
Toss-ups- 78

[LLR]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

[Ljube]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.

[Ljube]

The only battlegrounds this time and those will be the states where Trump will invest and campaign are OH, FL and PA.

He will also contest MI in earnest and IL and NY too for the lols.

[Mallow]

States in which the margin should be 5 pts or less, in order from smallest to the biggest margin:
NC, AZ, OH, FL, PA

All but AZ lean Clinton.

Colorado is not going to be close, Clinton should win it by 10 points or more. PA will be much closer than CO.

[Lachi]

Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida

States that could be put into play by either side
Nevada
Georgia

[Virginiá]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.

Higher African American turnout in Michigan due to a white Republican governor poisoning their families is not going to help Trump.

If Flint's problems continue to be painted as a Republican governance problem (I'm sure Hillary will also continue to work this angle), it will hurt his prospects in that state.

[Orser67]

To me, "battleground" is a relatively broad term encompassing all of the states that will be reasonably competitive and that both campaigns will make an effort in.

I think that the battlegrounds will probably be the same as in 2012 (NC, FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, IA, NH, NV, WI), though I could see NV and WI falling off the map fairly quickly since Trump seems like a poor fit for both states. If Clinton does particularly well, I could see Georgia and Arizona being added to the list, while if Trump does particularly well, I could see Minnesota and Michigan added to the list.

[Wisconsin+17]

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[Ljube]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.

Higher African American turnout in Michigan due to a white Republican governor poisoning their families is not going to help Trump.

If Flint's problems continue to be painted as a Republican governance problem (I'm sure Hillary will also continue to work this angle), it will hurt his prospects in that state.

Virginia, there is no way you can connect Trump with a Republican governor or Republican governance. As I said, he is an outsider.

Clinton, on the other hand, is a Washington insider and part of the Establishment.

[Virginiá]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.

Higher African American turnout in Michigan due to a white Republican governor poisoning their families is not going to help Trump.

If Flint's problems continue to be painted as a Republican governance problem (I'm sure Hillary will also continue to work this angle), it will hurt his prospects in that state.

Virginia, there is no way you can connect Trump with a Republican governor or Republican governance. As I said, he is an outsider.

Clinton, on the other hand, is a Washington insider and part of the Establishment.

It doesn't really matter. People also blame the president for numerous things that aren't their fault, and take it out on the party in general. That is why it is so hard for the party that controls the White House to make any notable gains whatsoever during their midterms. Likewise, many residents of Michigan aren't going to be as receptive to Republicans while this water crisis still unloads fallout on them. Republicans have controlled the Michigan state government for decades, save for 2007-2011 when they only controlled the State Senate/AG/SoS. The whole issue is a clear picture of the failure of Republican governing principles in Michigan, and if you think most people are going to fully separate that from national party members, well, heh, that's wishful thinking.

Further, as with many other similar community disasters, turnout among Flint residents, and thus African Americans, will likely surge. Trump isn't going to be winning over African Americans, so the increased turnout will benefit Hillary. They like Hillary and clearly do not like Trump, at least according to favorability polls.

Finally, you're putting far too much faith in this outsider angle. The people want someone they can trust to handle the problem, and many feel like career politicians can't deliver on their promises. This would benefit Trump more if he wasn't such a lying, dimwitted asshole. Hillary is no saint by any measure, but if you think Trump is more trustworthy, especially given recent events, then you really need to have your head checked.