Appalachia-Democratic Primary

[Adam Griffin]

By the broadest definition...

[Adam Griffin]

By the broadest definition...

So who won?

Clinton, definitely, though by what amount remains to be seen. I did the easiest (and likely to be most pro-Sanders) portions of Appalachia and came up with the following:


PA, NY, MD & WV Portions:
Clinton 478,539 (48.34%)
Sanders 476,353 (48.13%)
Other 34,852 (3.53%)

OH, TN, VA, GA, AL & MS would all drag that number down, leaving only the portions of KY & NC to offset any losses. It's probably at or close to 60% Clinton once you factor in AL & MS (which aren't really Appalachia, but I digress).

[Adam Griffin]

Probably only 55 percent Clinton since the south had far lower dem turnout.

Just adding the SC portion to the numbers took it from 48.3-48.1 to 49.4-47.3. There are a couple of larger counties in that, but still.

[Adam Griffin]

^ Stephen Wolf has the total closer than I thought:

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I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).

[Adam Griffin]

PA, NY, MD & WV Portions:
Clinton 478,539 (48.34%)
Sanders 476,353 (48.13%)
Other 34,852 (3.53%)

Adding in MS & SC produces:
Clinton 555,789 (50.66%)
Sanders 505,634 (46.09%)
Other 35,593 (3.24%)

[Adam Griffin]

^ Stephen Wolf has the total closer than I thought:

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I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).

His definition of Appalachia

Not too fundamentally different outside of MS & AL.

[Adam Griffin]

By the broadest definition...

So who won?

So now I can say with certainty: Clinton, by 11. Sanders won in WV, KY, NY & NC; Clinton elsewhere.

Final Result:
Clinton 53.85%
Sanders 42.97%
Others 3.19%



If you remove MS/AL (in reality, only a sliver of AL constitutes "Appalachia" in any meaningful sense; including the odder portions of the other states make much more sense relative to MS/AL), then Clinton wins by only 4:

Final Result (- AL & MS)
Clinton 50.50%
Sanders 46.18%
Others 3.32%