Appalachia-Democratic Primary
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Author Topic: Appalachia-Democratic Primary  (Read 1790 times)
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« on: May 11, 2016, 01:06:20 PM »

If you look at Virginia's primary, Bernie did best in the Appalachian areas. However, in Buchanan County, VA Bernie lost by nearly a 40 point margin while he won neighboring McDowell County WV by about 25 points. Is this indicative of the Trump effect of him having locked up the nomination by now, or is there some kind of cultural or socioeconomic difference that endeared Alleghany, Bath, and Buchanan County voters to Clinton over Sanders?

Also, why did Bernie not end up doing better in the area around Pittsburgh and in Ohio along the Ohio river? Aren't these areas exactly where he has been doing well looking at demographics?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2016, 01:18:41 PM »

Ohio isn't the best thing to look at because a bunch of D's crossed over for Kasich. Pennsylvania was a closed primary - VA/WV/IN were not.
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2016, 01:25:37 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2016, 01:31:20 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

Virginia, Tennessee were open primaries that benefitted Hillary a lot more than Bernie because those conservadems were able to vote for Trump. Meanwhile Western Pennsylvania has far less connection to the coal industry which has been in decline for decades and accelerating recently because of Cheap Natural gas from fracking.

If you wanted to know what would happen had all Appalachian states were closed primary then check out the Appalachian part of North Carolina which went for Bernie 40-50% with a lot of protest votes for "other".

In Ohio the appalachian areas were won by Hillary because it was an open primary so those pro-trump conservadems were not locked in the Democratic primary which meant Bernie couldnt bebenefit for those votes.


If you wanna get technical, perhaps Appalachia is a little too expanded as a region. Bernie did won the mountainous areas of Pennsylvania but Western Pennsylvania areas that were lower voted for Hillary.







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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2016, 02:52:30 PM »

Virginia, Tennessee were open primaries that benefitted Hillary a lot more than Bernie because those conservadems were able to vote for Trump. Meanwhile Western Pennsylvania has far less connection to the coal industry which has been in decline for decades and accelerating recently because of Cheap Natural gas from fracking.

If you wanted to know what would happen had all Appalachian states were closed primary then check out the Appalachian part of North Carolina which went for Bernie 40-50% with a lot of protest votes for "other".

In Ohio the appalachian areas were won by Hillary because it was an open primary so those pro-trump conservadems were not locked in the Democratic primary which meant Bernie couldnt bebenefit for those votes.


If you wanna get technical, perhaps Appalachia is a little too expanded as a region. Bernie did won the mountainous areas of Pennsylvania but Western Pennsylvania areas that were lower voted for Hillary.







This. West Virginia is an interesting case. Normally, the fact that it was semi-closed would've helped Hillary (though not as much as an open primary would have) because pro-Trump independents would've voted on the Republican side en masse. But with the Republican primary ending, the exact opposite took place: she actually would've been better off with a closed primary to keep out those pro-Trump independents who no longer had a reason to vote in the GOP primary. The exit poll showed tons of Sanders voters who would vote for Trump over Sanders, so clearly there was some mischief at play here among people who wanted to vote in an active contest.

The same applies in Kentucky. Normally it being closed would've hurt her due to all the Dixiecrats being locked in, but now that the GOP primary is effectively over, it being closed will help her.
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VPH
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2016, 01:00:11 AM »

Bernie once again did well in the region, getting 55% in Pike County, which borders Buchanan County, VA. Is it possible that if the super Tuesday states voted later, Bernie would have done better? Seems he's continued to improve in Appalachia.
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2016, 04:33:11 AM »

Some of SW Virginia has a sort of tradition of tending to vote for establishment candidates in Dem primaries for some reason.  but if VA had voted after Hillary made her coal gaffe, that could have made a difference.
I'm not sure exactly what the impact of this is, but the media for the area is mainly centered out of state in NE TN.   
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2016, 05:09:07 AM »

By the broadest definition...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2016, 08:07:05 AM »


So who won? Tongue
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2016, 11:18:11 AM »

WNC is not like other parts of Appalachia that voted for Bernie save for Montgomery/Floyd in Va.  Several universities plus actually granola belt people.  The Asheville NC region is actually forcing the local coal power plant to close.
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shua
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2016, 06:06:29 PM »

WNC is not like other parts of Appalachia that voted for Bernie save for Montgomery/Floyd in Va.  Several universities plus actually granola belt people.  The Asheville NC region is actually forcing the local coal power plant to close.

quite a few conservadems there too though.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2016, 06:08:23 PM »

The divide between open/closed is quite stark in that image.
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Hydera
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2016, 07:00:59 PM »



Interesting, looking back to that elevation map, even the higher elevation areas in Arkansas went for Bernie much more than other counties.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2016, 07:01:55 PM »


Clinton, definitely, though by what amount remains to be seen. I did the easiest (and likely to be most pro-Sanders) portions of Appalachia and came up with the following:


PA, NY, MD & WV Portions:
Clinton 478,539 (48.34%)

Sanders 476,353 (48.13%)
Other 34,852 (3.53%)

OH, TN, VA, GA, AL & MS would all drag that number down, leaving only the portions of KY & NC to offset any losses. It's probably at or close to 60% Clinton once you factor in AL & MS (which aren't really Appalachia, but I digress).
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2016, 07:06:46 PM »

Probably only 55 percent Clinton since the south had far lower dem turnout.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2016, 07:08:09 PM »

Probably only 55 percent Clinton since the south had far lower dem turnout.

Just adding the SC portion to the numbers took it from 48.3-48.1 to 49.4-47.3. There are a couple of larger counties in that, but still.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2016, 07:11:38 PM »

^ Stephen Wolf has the total closer than I thought:

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2016, 07:26:34 PM »


I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2016, 07:30:38 PM »

PA, NY, MD & WV Portions:
Clinton 478,539 (48.34%)
Sanders 476,353 (48.13%)
Other 34,852 (3.53%)

Adding in MS & SC produces:
Clinton 555,789 (50.66%)
Sanders 505,634 (46.09%)
Other 35,593 (3.24%)

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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2016, 07:31:39 PM »


I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).

His definition of Appalachia
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2016, 07:40:32 PM »


I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).

His definition of Appalachia

Not too fundamentally different outside of MS & AL.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2016, 07:55:36 PM »


I wonder what he's defining as "Appalachia"? It certainly is a much stricter measurement than what I'm using (which, granted, is the broadest definition of "Appalachia" there is).

His definition of Appalachia

Not too fundamentally different outside of MS & AL.

Also no New York, less Ohio, Shenandoah Valley included in Virginia, and less Georgia.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2016, 11:10:45 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2016, 11:16:15 PM by President Griffin »


So now I can say with certainty: Clinton, by 11. Sanders won in WV, KY, NY & NC; Clinton elsewhere.

Final Result:
Clinton 53.85%
Sanders 42.97%
Others 3.19%



If you remove MS/AL (in reality, only a sliver of AL constitutes "Appalachia" in any meaningful sense; including the odder portions of the other states make much more sense relative to MS/AL), then Clinton wins by only 4:

Final Result (- AL & MS)Sad
Clinton 50.50%
Sanders 46.18%
Others 3.32%
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