FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere  (Read 2857 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 11, 2016, 05:41:13 AM »
« edited: May 11, 2016, 05:44:24 AM by TN volunteer »

Florida

Patrick Murphy (D): 36%
Ron DeSantis (R): 35%

Patrick Murphy (D): 37%
David Jolly (R): 34%

Patrick Murphy (D): 38%
Carlos Beruff (R): 32%

Patrick Murphy (D): 38%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R): 34%

Patrick Murphy (D): 38%
Todd Wilcox (R): 33%

Alan Grayson (D): 36%
Carlos Beruff (R): 35%

Ron DeSantis (R): 38%
Alan Grayson (D): 36%

Alan Grayson (D): 37%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R): 37%

David Jolly (R): 37%
Alan Grayson (D): 35%

Todd Wilcox (R): 37%
Alan Grayson (D): 35%

Ohio

Ted Strickland (D): 43%
Rob Portman (R, inc.): 42%

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey (R, inc.): 45%
Katie McGinty (D): 44%

Link.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2016, 07:38:00 AM »

Confirms what I was thinking about these races: (almost) always straight Patty ticket.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2016, 07:55:33 AM »

Go Strickland & McGinty
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2016, 10:34:45 AM »


And Murphy, still a bit irked Sestak lost, but McGinty's fine.  I was worried it was going to look alot worse consideirng the presi numbers
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JMT
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2016, 10:45:26 AM »

Has there been any recent polling on the primary (for both parties) for the Florida senate race?

Also, I'm surprised to see how close PA is at this point. Might be an outlier at this point, but I did always expect the race would tighten, just not this soon. I really think McGinty can win, hopefully I'm right about this!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2016, 11:27:56 AM »

In a Trump yr, Pa and NH are solid blue states along with CO & NV
 Even Toomey isn't safe
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2016, 01:50:21 PM »

Last Quinnipiac poll had Toomey +9 on McGinty, for the record.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2016, 01:54:43 PM »

McGinty doing much better than I expected.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2016, 02:25:15 PM »

McGinty doing much better than I expected.
I'm guessing it's a post-primary effect. The race will be close.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2016, 02:57:24 PM »

McGinty doing much better than I expected.
I'm guessing it's a post-primary effect. The race will be close.

Yeah, Toomey was never going to win by a landslide like the older polls showed. That said, McGinty is getting a post primary bounce. Sometimes they stick, sometimes they don't. I'm hoping this one does.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2016, 04:40:32 PM »

Wow, even with the ridiculous heavily white samples Democrats are still well positioned in all three.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2016, 05:02:11 PM »

So glad that Sestak lost the primary. I feel very confident about OH and PA.

You are confident about both of their chances and first poll out has her tied and Strickland too. 
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2016, 06:54:20 PM »

If this poll is accurate, this is terrible news for Toomey and (especially) Strickland. They should be outperforming Trump by a lot. I still think PA is Lean R for now, but clearly Toomey isn't as safe as some earlier polls suggested. FL will probably be up in the air until the primary.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2016, 07:00:17 PM »

This could be nearly a replay of the Senatorial election of 2006, with Republicans losing several incumbent seats. If an incumbent is up by 1 he is in deep trouble.  Toomey and Portman both need strong Republican environments for winning, and this is not 2010 or 2014 again.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2016, 07:11:31 PM »

If this poll is accurate, this is terrible news for Toomey and (especially) Strickland. They should be outperforming Trump by a lot. I still think PA is Lean R for now, but clearly Toomey isn't as safe as some earlier polls suggested. FL will probably be up in the air until the primary.
Do you mean Portman?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2016, 07:47:55 PM »

If this poll is accurate, this is terrible news for Toomey and (especially) Strickland. They should be outperforming Trump by a lot. I still think PA is Lean R for now, but clearly Toomey isn't as safe as some earlier polls suggested. FL will probably be up in the air until the primary.
Do you mean Portman?
One thing this poll found was that Strickland had a higher percentage of people viewing him unfavorably. However, a lot of people also said they didn't know enough about Portman to have an opinion of him. That's good for Portman in that he can make inroads with some of them, but it's bad at the same time because he lags in name recognition and those people may not like him. Anyway, I say PA Tilts R at the moment, FL will lean R with Grayson as the Democratic nominee, tossup with Murphy as the Democratic nominee. Ohio is a a pure tossup right now.
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cxs018
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2016, 09:10:34 PM »

I'm beginning to think that this could be a Democratic wave year if Trump doesn't recover quickly.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2016, 10:12:18 PM »

If this poll is accurate, this is terrible news for Toomey and (especially) Strickland. They should be outperforming Trump by a lot. I still think PA is Lean R for now, but clearly Toomey isn't as safe as some earlier polls suggested. FL will probably be up in the air until the primary.
Do you mean Portman?

Yes, I meant Portman. My bad.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2016, 08:56:45 AM »

If this poll is accurate, this is terrible news for Toomey and (especially) Strickland. They should be outperforming Trump by a lot. I still think PA is Lean R for now, but clearly Toomey isn't as safe as some earlier polls suggested. FL will probably be up in the air until the primary.
Do you mean Portman?

Yes, I meant Portman. My bad.
That's cool

One thing this poll found was that Strickland had a higher percentage of people viewing him unfavorably. However, a lot of people also said they didn't know enough about Portman to have an opinion of him. That's good for Portman in that he can make inroads with some of them, but it's bad at the same time because he lags in name recognition and those people may not like him. Anyway, I say PA Tilts R at the moment, FL will lean R with Grayson as the Democratic nominee, tossup with Murphy as the Democratic nominee. Ohio is a pure tossup right now.
You raise a good point. I've been following the campaign through PPP, Portman's name recognition has been lower than Strickland's since last June. That said, the more voters recognize him, the higher his favorability goes. He's gone from net -24 favorable to -8, while Strickland's gone from -11 to -9.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2016, 06:31:39 AM »

Take it with a grain of salt, but a family friend who is a top lobbyist for Boeing (among other companies) and extremely well-connected with Portman's office said that Portman thinks he'll lose and that the Portman camp's last internal had Strickland up by four points.  They're planning to flood the airwaves, but don't think anything short of dead girl/live boy will tarnish Strickland's brand in Appalachia while the suburbs and cities will be brutal due to Trump and Presidential turnout respectively. 
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windjammer
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2016, 06:33:06 AM »

Take it with a grain of salt, but a family friend who is a top lobbyist for Boeing (among other companies) and extremely well-connected with Portman's office said that Portman thinks he'll lose and that the Portman camp's last internal had Strickland up by four points.  They're planning to flood the airwaves, but don't think anything short of dead girl/live boy will tarnish Strickland's brand in Appalachia while the suburbs and cities will be brutal due to Trump and Presidential turnout respectively. 
Well, great news Cheesy
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2016, 09:50:57 AM »

Take it with a grain of salt, but a family friend who is a top lobbyist for Boeing (among other companies) and extremely well-connected with Portman's office said that Portman thinks he'll lose and that the Portman camp's last internal had Strickland up by four points.  They're planning to flood the airwaves, but don't think anything short of dead girl/live boy will tarnish Strickland's brand in Appalachia while the suburbs and cities will be brutal due to Trump and Presidential turnout respectively. 

Wow, that's surprising. Even if Trump loses nationally, I still expect him to do very well in OH. Are there that many potential Trump/Strickland voters? I really thought Portman would be able to beat Strickland quite handily... Strickland has a pretty terrible record as governor, IIRC.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2016, 10:23:12 AM »

Take it with a grain of salt, but a family friend who is a top lobbyist for Boeing (among other companies) and extremely well-connected with Portman's office said that Portman thinks he'll lose and that the Portman camp's last internal had Strickland up by four points.  They're planning to flood the airwaves, but don't think anything short of dead girl/live boy will tarnish Strickland's brand in Appalachia while the suburbs and cities will be brutal due to Trump and Presidential turnout respectively. 

Wow, that's surprising. Even if Trump loses nationally, I still expect him to do very well in OH. Are there that many potential Trump/Strickland voters? I really thought Portman would be able to beat Strickland quite handily... Strickland has a pretty terrible record as governor, IIRC.
Oh, my gosh. Usually Portman and Strickland are neck and neck, sometimes Portman even a little ahead. I know that Strickland's record as governor was bad, and Republicans are attacking it, but I know Strickland and the Clintons are close. I also believe he heavily campaigned for Hillary in 2008. I really have no clue as to how the presidential race affects this race, TBH, but I thought Portman would still outperform Trump, and I had this race as Lean R for a while. I guess it's now a toss up.
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