California Senate Primary

[catographer]

California's primary rules circa 2012 are, as most of you probably know, a jungle primary with the top two finishers facing off in the general election. In congressional races this plays out practically speaking in a way such that very red districts and very blue districts have general elections between two Republicans or two Democrats respectfully. For national races since the system was implemented (2014's gubernatorial and statewide elections), a Democrat and Republican have faced off in the general. But this year's Senate primary looks like it may be between two Democrats, as the polls show Democrat Kamala Harris in first and Democrat Loretta Sanchez in a distant second. How do you think this match-up would play in the general election? Who would California's Republicans vote for?

[Heisenberg]

Both are very liberal, but I would say Sanchez is definately a notch less progressive. California Republicans will likely take the "lesser of two evils", but without a Republican on the ballot (and with Trump the nominee) they may stay home, or leave it blank.

[Miles]

There's already a pro-Sanchez PAC that was formed by Republican donors.

[JMT]

I'm hoping that it is Kamala Harris vs. a Republican, because in this case she'd win the election for sure. If it's Harris vs Sanchez (which looks likely at this point), Sanchez would still get a decent number of democrats to vote for her (considering she's actually a democrat) but I think she will get most of the Republicans who decide to cast a vote, and a lot of independents as well, because she's the less liberal of the two candidates. Meanwhile, Harris will win most of the registered Democrats. In a Harris vs Sanchez race, I think Sanchez would win because of the support from some democrats, independents, and most of the republicans who decide to cast a vote for Senate. My preferred candidate is Harris, so I'm just hoping Sanchez doesn't make it to the runoff in November.  

[smoltchanov]

Expect Harris- Sanchez race in November. Republicans will prefer Sanchez, but, i expect many of them to ignore Senate election altogether.. Even Sanchez is "too liberal" for most of them.

[Heisenberg]

Just wondering, why is Sanchez a Blue Dog Democrat? Aren't they supposed to be a centrist caucus? Also, this should be in the Congressional elections board, not the Gubernatorial one.
Edit: I also wonder how the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich will affect Republican turnout in this primary.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

[publicunofficial]

Sanchez is less liberal, but most Republicans will just view it as two extreme liberals going at it. Very few will take the time to look at their positions and decide which they like best.

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

lol

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The general election should be an interesting means to determine which racial minorities Republicans in California dislike more: will they vote for the Black woman with the Anglo last name or for the Mexican lady? I don't buy that ideology will play a big factor in this choice.

[Heisenberg]

The general election should be an interesting means to determine which racial minorities Republicans in California dislike more: will they vote for the Black woman with the Anglo last name or for the Mexican lady? I don't buy that ideology will play a big factor in this choice.

Remember, Harris is half black, half (South Asian) Indian.

[Mr. Smith]

The general election should be an interesting means to determine which racial minorities Republicans in California dislike more: will they vote for the Black woman with the Anglo last name or for the Mexican lady? I don't buy that ideology will play a big factor in this choice.

I think you're forgetting that Harris at least has an Obama like demeanor to her, Sanchez has a "take no prisoners" sort of rhetoric.

Now normally, that brash, off-the-cuff style in this type of climate would probably endear the remaining Republicans more towards Sanchez. But the whole "build a wall" thing is probably gonna make 'em not so happy towards someone challenging them harshly.

[rob in cal]

   Another pivotal aspect of all this is that winner of the seat probably gets to hold it for as long as they want it.

[Zioneer]

The general election should be an interesting means to determine which racial minorities Republicans in California dislike more: will they vote for the Black woman with the Anglo last name or for the Mexican lady? I don't buy that ideology will play a big factor in this choice.

I think you're forgetting that Harris at least has an Obama like demeanor to her, Sanchez has a "take no prisoners" sort of rhetoric.

Now normally, that brash, off-the-cuff style in this type of climate would probably endear the remaining Republicans more towards Sanchez. But the whole "build a wall" thing is probably gonna make 'em not so happy towards someone challenging them harshly.

The way I've heard it described is that Harris is patrician and Sanchez is.... the exact opposite.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Both are very liberal

Just stop.

[President Pepe]

I looks like it's going to be a two democrat race but Ron Unz is the most viable out of all the Republicans with large cross over appeal. He is the only candidate to unite both the Trump and Sanders supporters.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

And Louisiana too?

[This account no longer in use.]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

And Louisiana too?

You see, Louisiana is a red state, so it's okay.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

And Louisiana too?

You see, Louisiana is a red state, so it's okay.

No, I think he's just more likely to complain about a blue state. Oldiesfreak is consistent, but he just attacks Democrats for it more than Republican usually.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf I would agree with Oldies that majoritarian electoral systems in general are unfair to political and other minorities, but that is a common flaw of pretty much every federal, state and local election system in the states.

[SATW]

Just wondering, why is Sanchez a Blue Dog Democrat? Aren't they supposed to be a centrist caucus? Also, this should be in the Congressional elections board, not the Gubernatorial one.
Edit: I also wonder how the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich will affect Republican turnout in this primary.

I believe her district was more centrist when she first got elected and after two censuses of redistricting it became safer (thus she moved more left).

[Heisenberg]

Just wondering, why is Sanchez a Blue Dog Democrat? Aren't they supposed to be a centrist caucus? Also, this should be in the Congressional elections board, not the Gubernatorial one.
Edit: I also wonder how the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich will affect Republican turnout in this primary.

I believe her district was more centrist when she first got elected and after two censuses of redistricting it became safer (thus she moved more left).

Makes sense. Quick research shows that is the case. It appears as if she has gotten more and more liberal in recent years, though she never left the caucus.

[Miles]

Gov. Brown endorsing Harris.

[Mr. Smith]

Gov. Brown endorsing Harris.

Could anything else really be expected? Bay Area natives stick together.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

And Louisiana too?

You see, Louisiana is a red state, so it's okay.

No, I think he's just more likely to complain about a blue state. Oldiesfreak is consistent, but he just attacks Democrats for it more than Republican usually.

No, the reason I oppose California's primary and not Louisiana's has nothing to do with politics.  The reason I'm OK with Louisiana's system is because a candidate who wins a majority in the primary wins the election, which means that they've still been elected from the entire field of candidates from every party.  There's no general election/runoff unless there's no majority.  In California, the top two candidates go to a general election, even if one candidate wins a majority in the primary.  And California's system also bans write-in votes, which blatantly disenfranchises voters.  I would be just as dissatisfied with a general election between two Republicans as one with two Democrats, because such a system is fundamentally unfair and undemocratic, disenfranchising members of every other party.

And California isn't a solidly blue state, either.  They wouldn't have recalled Grey Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger if they were.  Likewise, Kathleen Blanco, Mary Landrieu, and John Bel Edwards never would have been elected if Louisiana were a solidly red state.

[Heisenberg]

I'm hoping that it would result in a lawsuit against the state for violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising political minorities.

And Louisiana too?

You see, Louisiana is a red state, so it's okay.

No, I think he's just more likely to complain about a blue state. Oldiesfreak is consistent, but he just attacks Democrats for it more than Republican usually.

No, the reason I oppose California's primary and not Louisiana's has nothing to do with politics.  The reason I'm OK with Louisiana's system is because a candidate who wins a majority in the primary wins the election, which means that they've still been elected from the entire field of candidates from every party.  There's no general election/runoff unless there's no majority.  In California, the top two candidates go to a general election, even if one candidate wins a majority in the primary.  And California's system also bans write-in votes, which blatantly disenfranchises voters.  I would be just as dissatisfied with a general election between two Republicans as one with two Democrats, because such a system is fundamentally unfair and undemocratic, disenfranchising members of every other party.

And California isn't a solidly blue state, either.  They wouldn't have recalled Grey Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger if they were.  Likewise, Kathleen Blanco, Mary Landrieu, and John Bel Edwards never would have been elected if Louisiana were a solidly red state.

In 2003, no. In 2016, I think so (both states). JBE was lucky since he made it into the runoff against by far the least popular Republican.