Will conservatives be able to draft a third party candidate?

[Ronnie]

It seems like Erick Erickson is serious about providing an alternative To Trump.  Can he plausibly do it, though?  Is there a list of state ballot deadlines and petition requirements for third party candidates floating around somewhere?

[Crumpets]

Might it be possible to just coopt the ballot access of an established party, like the Reform Party, or something?

[Mr. Morden]

Is anyone else trying to decipher the smoke signals being sent by Justin Amash’s Twitter feed?

First he posts this after Cruz’s withdrawal, leading some to think he’s hinting at a third party run.

Then yesterday:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/728048052578160640

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And just in the last few hours:

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https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/728382546870829056

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Is he simply suggesting that he’s not going to vote for Trump?  Or does his “soon” suggest something bigger?

[Ronnie]

Morden, before we address rumors of potential candidates, I think it's important to know whether it's even possible for anti-Trumpers to field a candidate this late in the process.  The ballot deadline and signature requirements in Texas are utterly draconian, but is it similar for other states?

[history nerd]

Is anyone else trying to decipher the smoke signals being sent by Justin Amash’s Twitter feed?

First he posts this after Cruz’s withdrawal, leading some to think he’s hinting at a third party run.

Then yesterday:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/728048052578160640

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And just in the last few hours:

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https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/728382546870829056

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Is he simply suggesting that he’s not going to vote for Trump?  Or does his “soon” suggest something bigger?

Amash most likely will endorse Johnson IMHO if he chooses not to tow the party line.

As for the rest of the never trumps I suppose they can try to take over the Constitution Party.

[SillyAmerican]

Morden, before we address rumors of potential candidates, I think it's important to know whether it's even possible for anti-Trumpers to field a candidate this late in the process.  The ballot deadline and signature requirements in Texas are utterly draconian, but is it similar for other states?

Yeah, it's nice to dream, but at some point, the reality of it being early May sets in. It's unfortunate, but that's where we're at...

[cwt]

Is there a list of state ballot deadlines and petition requirements for third party candidates floating around somewhere?

[Ronnie]

So, South Dakota is already gone, Texas is impossible, and North Carolina is incredibly daunting, if not impossible.

Seems pretty bleak to me, but maybe they could make it on the ballot in most states, and leave the rest to write-ins.

[Mr. Morden]

The third party option wouldn’t exist in order to win the presidency, in any case.  They know they’re going to lose.  The purpose would be to provide a place for Trump-hating conservatives to temporarily park their loyalties.  Thus, they don’t really need to be on the ballot in every state.

[Orser67]

At this point, I think it's fairly likely that a conservative Republican will make at least a half-hearted run at the presidency, in which their name appears on some ballots and they run a write-in campaign in some other states. Most likely the candidate would win a Nader-like percentage of the vote.

A third party candidacy wouldn't have an even remotely plausible chance of winning 270 electoral votes, but (similar to the goal of the segregationists in 1948 and 1968) it might have a shot at sending the race to the House. E.g. if Trump won the swing states but the third party candidate won some anti-Trump Republican states.

Trump 243
Clinton 217
Indy 78

[sportydude]

I'll stick to it: Bush and Martinez are going to build a ticket.
Both Bush 43's statement and Martinez' fierce attack from this week substantiate my allegation.

[sportydude]

I'd guess thrid-party candidates are unwanted in Florida and Oklahoma...

[Doimper]

At this point, I think it's fairly likely that a conservative Republican will make at least a half-hearted run at the presidency, in which their name appears on some ballots and they run a write-in campaign in some other states. Most likely the candidate would win a Nader-like percentage of the vote.

A third party candidacy wouldn't have an even remotely plausible chance of winning 270 electoral votes, but (similar to the goal of the segregationists in 1948 and 1968) it might have a shot at sending the race to the House. E.g. if Trump won the swing states but the third party candidate won some anti-Trump Republican states.

Trump 243
Clinton 217
Indy 78

Holy sh**t, what are you on? The only thing a third-party candidacy would achieve is handing Clinton a landslide the likes of which haven't been seen since Reagan. Definitely not that unholy abomination of a map.

[Torie]

The third party option wouldn’t exist in order to win the presidency, in any case.  They know they’re going to lose.  The purpose would be to provide a place for Trump-hating conservatives to temporarily park their loyalties.  Thus, they don’t really need to be on the ballot in every state.

" ... to temporarily park their loyalties, while inducing them to show up at the polls and vote for Pubs down ballot, rather than just stay home, thereby abruptly ending a host of Pub political careers."

[beaver2.0]

No.

[Stranger in a strange land]

At this point, I think it's fairly likely that a conservative Republican will make at least a half-hearted run at the presidency, in which their name appears on some ballots and they run a write-in campaign in some other states. Most likely the candidate would win a Nader-like percentage of the vote.

A third party candidacy wouldn't have an even remotely plausible chance of winning 270 electoral votes, but (similar to the goal of the segregationists in 1948 and 1968) it might have a shot at sending the race to the House. E.g. if Trump won the swing states but the third party candidate won some anti-Trump Republican states.

Trump 243
Clinton 217
Indy 78

Holy sh**t, what are you on? The only thing a third-party candidacy would achieve is handing Clinton a landslide the likes of which haven't been seen since Reagan. Definitely not that unholy abomination of a map.

The only states a Conservative 3rd Party Protest Vote would have an outside shot at winning are Utah and Idaho because of how much Mormons hate Trump and are put off by him.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Umm, what? If the third party wins 10 percent, Trump loses NC and GA. At 15, he loses Mississippi.

At 20, they flip TX, LA, MO, AZ, AK and SC.

Assuming equal distribution, they'd have to win around 30 percent to win a single state. And in those cases, Trump loses Indiana, Montana and Alabama.

The Republican map is terribly inelastic, with the core of TN, AR, KY, WV, KS, OK, NE, SD, ND, WY, UT and ID.

Hillary wouldn't get Reaganish maps unless the Republicans break for her.

[Maxwell]

Have people ever heard of filing deadlines.

[Blair]

Have people ever heard of filing deadlines.

[ProudModerate2]

Surprisingly, this whole idea is starting to pick-up steam.
If it happens, Hillary will be handed the Presidency on a silver platter.

[Wisconsin+17]

I'm not sure why people are surprised? Trump's down 20 points. There's no effective political cost for leaving the reservation.

[°Leprechaun]

I have no idea how well third parties will do this year, but I doubt that any can win or deny the candidate with the most electoral votes a 270 or greater majority.

The last time the leading candidate (in electoral votes) failed to win a majority in electoral
votes was 1824.
The last time a third party won any state was 1968 (58 years ago).

Although I am 100% behind the idea of third parties, since our two party system is horrible,
let's be realistic.

[Stranger in a strange land]

For the 100000th time: No. IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. When will Atlas finally realize this? lol

Again, the purpose isn't to win. It's to provide a place for anti-Trump conservatives to park their protest votes while voting Republican in down-ballot elections. They know they aren't going to win, so they don't have to be on the ballot in every state.

[StateBoiler]

Names listed in a WaPo op-ed and a thehill.com list:

-Former Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
-Former Gov. Rick Perry of Texas
-Retired Army Gen. Ray Odierno
-Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska
-Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican presidential nominee
-Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan
-Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky
-Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina
-Retired Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly
-Former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, 2012 and likely 2016 Libertarian presidential nominee

[Crumpets]

Any talk of Buddy Roemer? He'd seem like a plausible sacrificial lamb.