Election betting thread.

[Sorenroy]

BTW, who the hell is going to keep track of all this?

It's in the first post. Also, how long does a bet last? Can someone withdraw a bet? What if no one has responded. I'm sure that in November someone doesn't want someone else going back 20 pages and finding an awful bet that someone else proposed.

[RR1997]

I'll keep track of this.

1. I'll make this a little more interesting. You have to pay a $500 fee to withdraw from a bet. You lose $500 if you decide to withdraw from a bet.
2. A bet lasts until the results. For example, if someone made a bet related to the Indiana primaries, the bet will end when we find out the results of the Indiana primaries. I don't want to be rude, but shouldn't this be common sense?
3.

I bet $500 that Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties. If you were to bet against Castro, and Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, then you'd gain $500 while he'd lose that amount.

One more rule: No bet can be higher than $1000.

[Xing]

Hillary wins Indiana with at least 55% $300

I'll take you up on this one.

[dax00]

20 on Cruz winning IN

I predict a Trump victory in Indiana. I'll bet against you.

I'll gain $20 if Trump wins Indiana, and you'll gain $20 if Cruz wins.

Others can join OC's bet too. Let's just say that OC is correct and two people betted against him. He'd gain $40 in this scenario (since two people betted against him).

I don't think it'd be fair to assume someone is willing to offer a bet more than once, especially if they're managing with few assets. I'd only consider the first one to have taken up the bet to have the valid claim to the bet.

[/]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Doesn't that mean someone can just make a series of obviously safe bets that nobody accepts in order to earn an infinite amount of money?

[This account no longer in use.]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Doesn't that mean someone can just make a series of obviously safe bets that nobody accepts in order to earn an infinite amount of money?

This is Atlas. Every bet has at least a chance to be accepted. I was perusing the 2008 boards today, and I happened to find somebody saying McCain would win easily a week before Election Day.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Doesn't that mean someone can just make a series of obviously safe bets that nobody accepts in order to earn an infinite amount of money?

Sh, don't make me bother people to post they accept my trash

[/]

LOL.

I withdraw my bet regarding Trump's performance in West Virginia, which apparently costs $500 so I have $500 left.

I now bet my remaining $500 that Ted Cruz does not drop out by 10:15 PM EST on May 1, 2016.

[/]

LOL.

I withdraw my bet regarding Trump's performance in West Virginia, which apparently costs $500 so I have $500 left.

I now bet my remaining $500 that Ted Cruz does not drop out by 10:15 PM EST on May 1, 2016.

I won

Betting $1000 that Cruz doesn't drop out by 10:20, etc.

[RR1997]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Doesn't that mean someone can just make a series of obviously safe bets that nobody accepts in order to earn an infinite amount of money?

This is Atlas. Every bet has at least a chance to be accepted. I was perusing the 2008 boards today, and I happened to find somebody saying McCain would win easily a week before Election Day.

Good point.

New rule: I will remove obvious bets.

The following bets have been removed:

$50 that Trump wins West Virginia

I bet $1000 that Trump wins West Virginia.

Also, I bet 200 that Trump wins WV.

I'll wager $500 on Trump winning WV in the primary, and you only have to put up $100 to go against me.

[/]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

[RR1997]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Fine. This rule will take effect starting right now. This will make sure no one makes money off obvious bets.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

Absolutely not. Your current balance is at $500 because you withdrew from your WV bet.

[RR1997]

I bet $500 that Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

I will bet against you.

[RR1997]

The following bets are still open (no one has accepted these bets yet, feel free to accept some of these if you believe that their predictions are going to be false):

I'll bet $15 that Trump will win Oregon.

$1,000 that Hillary wins under 53% in the general.

$50 that Cruz wins Nebraska
$50 that Trump wins West Virginia
$50 that Sanders wins Oregon
$50 that Trump wins Oregon
$25 that Trump wins Washington

I bet 100$ that Trump wins CA primary by double digits.

$1000 that TRUMP will win Indiana.

I bet $1000 that Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire in November.

And for my last two bets (for now):

$15 on Trump being the nominee.
$250 that Trump will not pick Kasich as his running mate.

That is all, all my money is tied up, so I'll be making my leave.

I'll also bet $100 that Sanders wins SD.

I'll put $200 on Trump winning Oregon, AND I'll give you 5-2 odds (i.e. your $200 bet will get you $500).

I'll also take a single $100 bet (first post, first served) at even odds Trump wins IN.

I'll offer up the following bets:

a. 5:3 odds that during Trump's speech on Tuesday, he says the phrase "crooked Hillary" at least twice (Trump says it 2+ times → you give me $20; Trump says it once or not at all → i give you $12)

b. 2:7 odds that Cruz will not withdraw from the race or suspend his campaign on Tuesday or Wednesday (Central Daylight Time) (he stays in → you give me $30; he withdraws/suspends → i give you $105)

Trump wins California $400

500$ that Hillary wins more than 350 electoral votes.
250$ that Hillary wins AZ
250$ Hillary wins more than 80% of the hispanic vote.

[Xing]

^dax00 accepted my NV bet.

[RR1997]

^dax00 accepted my NV bet.

I just noticed my mistake. I just fixed it. Sorry about that.

[Fight for Trump]

I'll bet $400 that Trump wins Indiana.

I'll take this.

[/]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Fine. This rule will take effect starting right now. This will make sure no one makes money off obvious bets.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

Absolutely not. Your current balance is at $500 because you withdrew from your WV bet.

Yes, but that was under the assumption that I would be able to place the new bet. If I had known you would cancel the new bets, I would have not canceled the first bet. Therefore, I assume, the first bet is back on and my balance is once more $1000.

[RR1997]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Fine. This rule will take effect starting right now. This will make sure no one makes money off obvious bets.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

Absolutely not. Your current balance is at $500 because you withdrew from your WV bet.

Yes, but that was under the assumption that I would be able to place the new bet. If I had known you would cancel the new bets, I would have not canceled the first bet. Therefore, I assume, the first bet is back on and my balance is once more $1000.

Fine. You're balance is at $1000, but your first bet will remain canceled.

[RR1997]

Thanks, dax00.

You can bet more than $1,000 in total btw. One single bet can't be higher than $1000 though.

[dax00]

Thanks, dax00.

You can bet more than $1,000 in total btw. One single bet can't be higher than $1000 though.

You're welcome. It doesn't make sense if you start with just $1000, though. Are you saying you can bet on credit?

Also, I suggest lowering the withdrawal fee to something like $75

[Sorenroy]

New rule: I will remove obvious bets.

Why not, instead, just make it so that unaccepted bets that are neutralized like in a actual bet? If I bet that Clinton will win the election and end up being wrong but there were no takers, then no one should get or lose money. If you're doing it more like a casino where the money goes to the house then you should only lose money if no one takes you up but gain nothing (except get the money back that you put in), if end up being right. As such if I bet that Clinton wins and she loses I lose my money, but if she wins all I get is the money I put into the pot.

[Sorenroy]

I suggest lowering the withdrawal fee to something like $75

The withdrawal fee has to be less then what the person put down, if not then there is no point in withdrawing. On the other side if you make a bet and it costs to little to pull out and you see the odds of something as 100:1, then you would definitely pull out of the bet to save whatever you could.

I say that no one should be allowed to exit a bet and thus should be extra careful when entering what they want.

[dax00]

I suggest lowering the withdrawal fee to something like $75

The withdrawal fee has to be less then what the person put down, if not then there is no point in withdrawing. On the other side if you make a bet and it costs to little to pull out and you see the odds of something as 100:1, then you would definitely pull out of the bet to save whatever you could.

I say that no one should be allowed to exit a bet and thus should be extra careful when entering what they want.

After reconsideration, I suggest making the withdrawal fee 10% on unaccepted bets (allowed anytime, to be simply deducted) and 40% on accepted bets (30% of the bet value should be awarded to the person who didn't withdraw and the remaining 10% to be simply deducted). Withdrawals on accepted bets should not be allowed less than 48 hrs prior to the result of the bet's stipulation.

[dax00]

I fixed up my numbers on the last page to honor late action. I think there should be a time restraint on late action, though.