Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

He's still under 50% of total first-ballot delegates, whether you count just pledged or include the unpledged that have also made an endorsement. He cannot exceed 50% on the first number tomorrow, and it's unlikely for him to exceed it on the second. Even if he does, he's on track to do poorly in most of the May primaries (except West Virginia), and have negative momentum going in to California, where he needs to do well.

Momentum hasn't really existed in this cycle.

[jaichind]

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere.  I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

I agree with you, but if Trump gets to 1200 pledged delegate or so it will be hard for them to take that position. The way to stop Trump is to make sure he is below something like 1150.  That means Trump must be beating in IN and be beaten in significant number of CD in CA.  There is no way around this fact.

[Orser67]

Remember when everyone was freaking out after Cruz won Wisconsin?  At that point, most people thought Trump would get 85 delegates out of New York.  Trump ended up getting 90.  Is 5 delegates really that much of a game changer?  

Its not.  People are just over-reacting as usual to every single event in this race.  Just like how you guys over-reacted to Sanders winning New Hampshire and Michigan, just like how people over-reacted to Cruz winning Maine and Kansas, and then when Cruz won Wisconsin.

Pretty much this.

Imo, given how important California is, and the possibility that California could allocate CD delegates somewhat differently from the overall state vote, we won't know for sure until June 7th. But at the very least, we should hold off on saying that Trump has definitely won until after Indiana (and the Northeast) votes.

[President Johnson]

I hope (and I think so) that this whole Kasich-Cruz move backfires. Because you just can't stump the TRUMP.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not yet. If Cruz wins Indiana and stops him in enough congressional districts in California, that changes the ballgame. This is a dead heat that will not be decided quickly.

[Nyvin]

It's too early to say if Trump will hit 1237, but even if he doesn't and only gets ~1150 or so I can't imagine the GOP could possibly deny him the nomination.

It's hard to see him going much below 1,100 delegates at this point, which is what I'd consider the real breaking point to him having a really good chance at getting the nod.

[Figueira]

No, there's still a significant chance that someone else will get it.

[SillyAmerican]

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere.  I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

I agree with you, but if Trump gets to 1200 pledged delegate or so it will be hard for them to take that position. The way to stop Trump is to make sure he is below something like 1150.  That means Trump must be beating in IN and be beaten in significant number of CD in CA.  There is no way around this fact.

Agreed. And while I think it's possible that Trump doesn't get to 1237, I believe he will be very, very close -- probably within 50 or 60 votes. I actually find myself hoping he somehow does get to 1237, if for no other reason than to avoid the turmoil that will result if multiple rounds of balloting result in someone other than Trump being nominated.

[DemPGH]

For all practical purposes, yeah, especially with a N.E. mop-up, and then it is over if he wins IN. If all that happens, I'm not sure what an effort to steal it from him at the convention will look like or how much appetite there will be for it. Trump just has to keep hammering. 

This is a dead heat that will not be decided quickly.

It's really not a dead heat at all, that's the fascinating thing about it. He's won everywhere except the Great Plains.

I hope (and I think so) that this whole Kasich-Cruz move backfires.

Yeah, it's just another cheap trick. I guess Kasich still wants any votes he gets, though, LOL. Okay, any respect I may have had for him despite disagreements is gone. He's a tool. 

[Vosem]

It's really not a dead heat at all, that's the fascinating thing about it. He's won everywhere except the Great Plains.

He hasn't really won anywhere besides the New York City suburbs, portions of Appalachia, and the Mississippi River Valley. Everywhere else he goes, people vote against him.

[Xing]

Not yet. Let's wait until Indiana before jumping to any conclusions. If Cruz wins Indiana, even by a tiny margin, I'd bet anything this forum will be convinced that Trump is absolutely finished, and has no chance.

[Ljube]

Not quite yet. Be patient.

[Wisconsin+17]

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His only win was New York. That's the worst a frontrunner has ever done. Given this late into the process, Trump is irreparably damaged.

[emailking]

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states.

California isn't winner-take-all.

[Nathan Towne]

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states.

California isn't winner-take-all.

California 3 10 159 172 0 172 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Jun 7 Slate Jun 7 Slate N/A

[Meclazine for Israel]

He is going to land somewhere near 1,200, so yes.

That makes him the presumptive nominee.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

He is going to land somewhere near 1,200, so yes.

That makes him the presumptive nominee.

No that wouldn't.  1200 is my rough number where anything below that would make it pretty much impossible to get to 1237.  He would have to be near 1220 before I would be very confident that he would be the nominee, and there is always the chance that the RNC finds a way to stop Trump, who has 1236 pledged delegates (probably through adopting a rule that all unpledged delegates must vote uncommitted on the first ballot).

[Clark Kent]

"Trump" and any form of the word "win" do not belong in the same sentence without a form of "not" in between. He is a loser. A high-energy loser, but still a loser with tiny hands.

[The Other Castro]

"Trump" and any form of the word "win" do not belong in the same sentence without a form of "not" in between. He is a loser. A high-energy loser, but still a loser with tiny hands.

What does that make the 16 other Republicans that ran this cycle?

[SillyAmerican]

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His only win was New York. That's the worst a frontrunner has ever done. Given this late into the process, Trump is irreparably damaged.

So the same can be said about Hillary, right? This statement either applies to both or applies to neither, unless you can explain the difference. In any event, I don't think we share the same view of what constitutes irreparable damage.

[ProudModerate2]

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states.

California isn't winner-take-all.

California 3 10 159 172 0 172 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Jun 7 Slate Jun 7 Slate N/A

California is actually considered a winner-take-most, and not necessarily a winner-take-all state.
This is what I found :

1.) How many people are in the California Delegation?

•172 delegates
-- ◦159 (3 delegates per Congressional District)
-- ◦10 delegates at large
-- ◦3 pre-determined (State Chair, National Committeewoman, National Committeeman)

2.) How does the winner-take-all primary work?

California’s primary is a winner-take-all system by Congressional District. The Presidential candidate who wins any given Congressional District will receive all 3 delegate appointments for that district. In addition, 10 at large delegates are awarded to the presidential candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide.

Source=   https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/

[libertpaulian]

Yes.  If Trump does as well as he's predicted to do tonight, the fence-sitters and late deciders here in Indiana will break for Trump next week.

[Vosem]

"Trump" and any form of the word "win" do not belong in the same sentence without a form of "not" in between. He is a loser. A high-energy loser, but still a loser with tiny hands.

What does that make the 16 other Republicans that ran this cycle?

_trump is a loser, but he's not the only loser in the world, or even in the Republican Party. That would be ridiculous.

[wolfsblood07]

"Trump" and any form of the word "win" do not belong in the same sentence without a form of "not" in between. He is a loser. A high-energy loser, but still a loser with tiny hands.

What does that make the 16 other Republicans that ran this cycle?

_trump is a loser, but he's not the only loser in the world, or even in the Republican Party. That would be ridiculous.

Trump is a winner in every way, though he may not win the presidency.  But he did win the primaries, no one can deny that.

[Beezer]

Game over #NeverTrump.