2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[houseonaboat]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

[KingSweden]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

[LabourJersey]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

It's a little grotesque, but at the same time it's fair game. If someone in big finance wishes to run for a major office in the modern Democratic party, they should expect stuff like this is going to come up.

[Lord Admirale]

I think Ciatarelli could make this competitive with Murphy. He could wring his hands of ties to Christie easier than Guadagno. Rather than Murphy winning 56-40, he may win 51-46. And like someone else here noted, Ciatarelli does come from a blue district. To win, however, would require a miracle due to Christie and Trump ruining the GOP's appearance here.

[Pollster]

Not sure Ciattarelli could make it 51-46, especially with Murphy already leading Guadagno by >20 points in the most recent polls. The GOP brand in NJ is incredibly damaged to the point that I'm not even sure Abraham Lincoln could win this election.

[Suburbia]

There is another N.J. Republican in this 2017 race that is gaining steam on a grassroots level. Hirsh Singh, who is an engineer and a businessman. I can see Singh being third place behind Guadango and Ciattarelli.

Singh should run against Menendez in 2018. The NJGOP bench is there, but Christie has been the head of the NJGOP since 2009.

[houseonaboat]

Gonna predict something like:

Democratic primary number of votes: 450,000
Phil Murphy: 57%
Jim Johnson: 20%
John Wisniewski: 12%
Lesniak/Brennan/Zinna: 11%

Republican primary number of votes: lol
Kim Guadagno: 50%
Jack Ciattarelli: 35%
Harsh Singh: 10% (and I knew this guy growing up, he'll call this a win and run for another office he's woefully unqualified for)
Field: 5%

[Progressive]

Anyone think it's a possible for the frontrunners (Murphy and Guadango) for the D and R tickets to be beaten tomorrow?

I feel like low turnout could produce a Johnson / Ciattarelli win

[LabourJersey]

Anyone think it's a possible for the frontrunners (Murphy and Guadango) for the D and R tickets to be beaten tomorrow?

I feel like low turnout could produce a Johnson / Ciattarelli win

I think it's definitely possible that either could lose. I'd even say that if the both of them were head-to-head with one of their opponents (Guadango v. Ciattarelli and Murphy v. Wiz/Johnson) they would be more than likely to lose.

What will push them over the top is their county lines and the divided opposition--Wiz and Johnson pull votes from won another. I would not be shocked (but would be saddened) if the two combined got an equal amount of voters as Murphy. Also Singh and Rullo will definitely pull anti-Christie voters away from Ciatterelli, which he would need.

[KingSweden]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

It's a little grotesque, but at the same time it's fair game. If someone in big finance wishes to run for a major office in the modern Democratic party, they should expect stuff like this is going to come up.

I get that finance is unpopular at the grassroots, and for fair reasons, but that is still an atrocious line of attack against anyone when considering this nation's history with slavery. Not to mention Murphy seems to be running on an unusually progressive platform for a Wall Street Democrat

[Anna Komnene]

I think Murphy is going to win big but of any of the challengers, Johnson seems to have the most momentum of any of them?  I just had an NJ friend ask me about the election because "I'm the expert," and I haven't been paying any attention to this until now.  If Wisniewski was going to have any momentum, it would have happened a long time ago.  It's very difficult to defeat establishment backed candidates in NJ anyway.

[Pollster]

With a little more than 24 hours until polls close, I have had:
-2 canvassers for Johnson at my door today, separated by only about 2 hours
-1 canvasser for Wisniewski
-1 phone call for Murphy

Additionally, I went out food shopping and when I returned a hangtag for Murphy and the county Democratic line was on my doorknob.

I still haven't decided (leaning towards Johnson at the moment) and I'm still predicting a Murphy win but I have to hand it to each campaign for really giving this their all.

[houseonaboat]

With a little more than 24 hours until polls close, I have had:
-2 canvassers for Johnson at my door today, separated by only about 2 hours
-1 canvasser for Wisniewski
-1 phone call for Murphy

Additionally, I went out food shopping and when I returned a hangtag for Murphy and the county Democratic line was on my doorknob.

I still haven't decided (leaning towards Johnson at the moment) and I'm still predicting a Murphy win but I have to hand it to each campaign for really giving this their all.

Curious, can I ask what county you're in? Most people that I've talked to (I'm in Bergen County) say they've been flooded with Murphy literature the past few weeks.

[Pollster]

With a little more than 24 hours until polls close, I have had:
-2 canvassers for Johnson at my door today, separated by only about 2 hours
-1 canvasser for Wisniewski
-1 phone call for Murphy

Additionally, I went out food shopping and when I returned a hangtag for Murphy and the county Democratic line was on my doorknob.

I still haven't decided (leaning towards Johnson at the moment) and I'm still predicting a Murphy win but I have to hand it to each campaign for really giving this their all.

Curious, can I ask what county you're in? Most people that I've talked to (I'm in Bergen County) say they've been flooded with Murphy literature the past few weeks.

I'm in Middlesex, and have also gotten a handful of Murphy literature since mid-April.

[Suburbia]

Since I am an Independent voter in N.J., I am wondering if I should change party affiliation. I may vote for Phil Murphy for N.J. governor in the primary.

The NJGOP does not have a chance this year post-Christie.


I won't be surprised if the big NJGOP powerplayers like Christie, Kean Jr. doesn't vote tomorrow since the race is sleepy.

[cvparty]

speaking from camden county, I saw a ton of murphy yard signs (and 'hate has no home here' signs)

[houseonaboat]

Oh, it's gonna rain pretty badly tomorrow as well in most of North Jersey, increasing the odds of a low-turnout race.

[kyc0705]

Oh, it's gonna rain pretty badly tomorrow as well in most of North Jersey, increasing the odds of a low-turnout race.

It's been raining this morning in South Jersey as well, with more expected throughout the day.

[Progressive]

Friends working on various campaigns Murphy, Wiz, Johnson and Guadagno (lol) said that turn out seemed so light for A.M. rush because of rain and non-focus on the race that they really think a few thousand vote push by any of the campaigns could sway result.

[Gass3268]

What time do the polls close?

[houseonaboat]

What time do the polls close?

8 pm

[LabourJersey]

Friends working on various campaigns Murphy, Wiz, Johnson and Guadagno (lol) said that turn out seemed so light for A.M. rush because of rain and non-focus on the race that they really think a few thousand vote push by any of the campaigns could sway result.

Absolutely--the democratic primary election is going to be a lot closer than people expect. The people who care a lot about the race are mostly anti-Murphy, so the margin could be slim. I still think Murphy will win though

[Suburbia]

Christie officially endorsed and voted for Guadagno today in his polling place in Mendham, N.J.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/christie_chooses_a_side_in_nj_republican_primary.html#incart_most-commented_politics

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think Ciattarelli wins. He's got great ballot position for straight-ticket voters and has campaigned the most aggressively. I don't know who is turning out for Guandango.

I give him a 10% chance of winning in November, sure, but that's more than I give her.

[Suburbia]

I think Ciattarelli wins. He's got great ballot position for straight-ticket voters and has campaigned the most aggressively. I don't know who is turning out for Guandango.

I give him a 10% chance of winning in November, sure, but that's more than I give her.

If Ciattarelli wins, it shows that the Christie-Guadango-Raia reign of the NJGOP is over. I wonder if Guadagno would run for Senate or House down the line?