2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Duke of York]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.

I agree with this assessment of the poll. Online polls are not scientific and have been shown to not be accurate.

[LabourJersey]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.

I agree with this assessment of the poll. Online polls are not scientific and have been shown to not be accurate.

Yes exactly--I would be floored if Wiz won by 6 points and Murphy getting third place. That being said, I don't think Murphy is a guaranteed shoo-in for the nomination at this point, just because he reminds so many Democrats of Corzine and has done really nothing to soften those comparisons.

[Duke of York]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.

I agree with this assessment of the poll. Online polls are not scientific and have been shown to not be accurate.

Yes exactly--I would be floored if Wiz won by 6 points and Murphy getting third place. That being said, I don't think Murphy is a guaranteed shoo-in for the nomination at this point, just because he reminds so many Democrats of Corzine and has done really nothing to soften those comparisons.

I wouldnt say he's a shoo in either but I think he's a heavy favorite. Personally I'm rooting for Johnson but hopefully he will be picked as Lt. Governor.

[Babeuf]

lol no.

I'm probably going to vote for Wiz but Murphy has got this locked up and he'll win bigly.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah that's not a real poll.

[KingSweden]

Yeah that's not a real poll.

[Pollster]

I'm a registered NJ Democrat who reliably votes in statewide primaries so I'm often contacted frequently by gubernatorial and Senate campaigns. With the primary three weeks away I have only been directly contacted so far by Johnson's campaign, and his campaign has contacted me three times as of this writing. I'm not involved with any of the campaigns but it seems to me like his ground game is the strongest. Conversely, Phil Murphy's TV presence has been the strongest, which is incredibly important in NJ politics. I suspect if the race tightens it will be between those two. I have not yet decided for whom I will vote.

[houseonaboat]

I've only seen one decent poll of the race (polls likely voters based on vote history) and it has Murphy up 30. Murphy 37, Wisniewski 7, Jonson 4, Lesniak 3 and undecided 49. It was commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters though, who endorsed Murphy.

https://www.insidernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/5-17-Mellman-Group-Polling-Memo.pdf

[darklordoftech]

Here is another bold prediction: Assemblyman John Wisniewski will either be 3rd place in the June 6 primary or drop out all together. He has not run a good campaign. I live in his legislative district, I have not seen so much support in his Middlesex County base. He was supposed to be the progressive alternative to a Democratic establishment Murphy, and Wisniewski is pretty popular in my district. He's won reelection since 1995. He has not put up a TV/Internet ad as of April, and time runs out in N.J. politics in the spring, because once it hits May, everyone focuses on heading to the Jersey Shore or the Morristown Green to kickoff springtime/summertime weather.

Jim Johnson is gaining in the election. He's well-educated, black (could do well in Essex and Union, Camden counties). Wisniewski is a bland white blue-collar progressive male from Middlesex County.

Wisniewski better get his campaign running strong or else Johnson will be in 2nd place in the primary.

As someone who hates Wisniewski and who's mother went to high school with Johnson, I hope your prediction comes true.

neither of these words has any tangible meaning

This can't be repeated enough.

[houseonaboat]

Biden will campaign with Murphy. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/joe_biden_to_campaign_for_phil_murphy_in_nj_govern.html

[rpryor03]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

[TheSaint250]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

[LabourJersey]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

[Lord Admirale]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

No more taxes pls. We're the most taxed state in the Union, Wiz or Murphy will keep pumping them up.

[Suburbia]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

No more taxes pls. We're the most taxed state in the Union, Wiz or Murphy will keep pumping them up.

True. New Jersey is TOO high taxed, despite being a liberal state. New Jersey liberals (some of them) hate high taxes but still vote high taxes. I'll vote for Murphy, as he seems likely to change N.J. I'm an Independent and I'll be voting for him.

[houseonaboat]

Not that this matters anymore but Al Gore endorsed Murphy today, one day after it was announced that Biden would campaign with him on Memorial Day. Wonder if an HRC endorsement or even a BO endorsement is possible before the primary.

[Lord Admirale]

Not that this matters anymore but Al Gore endorsed Murphy today, one day after it was announced that Biden would campaign with him on Memorial Day. Wonder if an HRC endorsement or even a BO endorsement is possible before the primary.

If HRC endorses him, then that will be his kiss of death with New Jersey Progressives. Wiz could easily exploit that.

[JoshPA]

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.

that only if booker wins the election

[LabourJersey]

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.

that only if booker wins the election

I strongly doubt a special election in 2021 would be a toss up, unless it's incredibly low turnout and Booker (or any other Dem) is somehow incredibly unpopular a year in.

I think the GOP could obviously have a chance in '21, but that's if Murphy screws up and the state party puts Christie behind him (voters have short memories, so who knows). But senatorial races are just not going to be competitive unless we have a horrendously unpopular president or a Senator who's an Evan Mecham-type crazy dude.

[Suburbia]

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.

that only if booker wins the election

I strongly doubt a special election in 2021 would be a toss up, unless it's incredibly low turnout and Booker (or any other Dem) is somehow incredibly unpopular a year in.

I think the GOP could obviously have a chance in '21, but that's if Murphy screws up and the state party puts Christie behind him (voters have short memories, so who knows). But senatorial races are just not going to be competitive unless we have a horrendously unpopular president or a Senator who's an Evan Mecham-type crazy dude.

Jay Webber or Tom Kean, Jr. could make it competitive.

[Kingpoleon]

Don Guardian/Kate Whitman would be a good ticket for 2021.

[rpryor03]

Don Guardian/Kate Whitman would be a good ticket for 2021.

Dude, like, I get that you've got a thing for Christine Todd Whitman, but her daughter's woefully unqualified. She's never held elected office before.

[darklordoftech]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

The red light cameras were his idea.

[Kingpoleon]

Don Guardian/Kate Whitman would be a good ticket for 2021.

Dude, like, I get that you've got a thing for Christine Todd Whitman, but her daughter's woefully unqualified. She's never held elected office before.

It's hard to be "woefully unqualified" for Lieutenant Governor, which is a largely symbolic position.

[Suburbia]

Kate Whitman, Gov. Whitman's daughter is qualified. She ran for a Congressional seat (NJ-7) in 2008. If Lance's approval ratings sink next year, I can see the NJ GOP asking Lance to step aside for Whitman.

A Guardian/Whitman ticket in 2021 could beat Murphy or Wisniewski.