2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Fulop probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

Fulop dropped out last week, Christie Todd Whitman literally hasn't done anything in state politics for 15 years, and Don Guardian has no statewide recognition and wouldn't look good for ditching Atlantic City. A Republican isn't winning this race barring some major scandal for Murphy (though considering this is New Jersey, maybe even with one...).

She could run for Senate in 2018 against Menendez. Frankly, I think the NJ GOP has a large bench to run against Menendez.

[Heisenberg]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Fulop probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

Fulop dropped out last week, Christie Todd Whitman literally hasn't done anything in state politics for 15 years, and Don Guardian has no statewide recognition and wouldn't look good for ditching Atlantic City. A Republican isn't winning this race barring some major scandal for Murphy (though considering this is New Jersey, maybe even with one...).

She could run for Senate in 2018 against Menendez. Frankly, I think the NJ GOP has a large bench to run against Menendez.

After being out of office this long? Ask Tommy Thompson and Ted Strickland what it's like to run for Senate at that age, and being out of the governorship for a while.

[Fusionmunster]

I really want Shavonda Sumter as governor personally, but Phil Murphy looks like he'd be hard to take down in a primary. Phil Murphy seems like Jon Corzine 2.0.

[Fusionmunster]

I really want Shavonda Sumter as governor personally, but Phil Murphy looks like he'd be hard to take down in a primary. Phil Murphy seems like Jon Corzine 2.0.

Sumter is Murphy's leading choice for Lt. Governor, apparently.

Probably why she hasn't announced. Figures we'd be stuck with another wall street executive.

[Suburbia]

I really want Shavonda Sumter as governor personally, but Phil Murphy looks like he'd be hard to take down in a primary. Phil Murphy seems like Jon Corzine 2.0.

Sumter is Murphy's leading choice for Lt. Governor, apparently.

True. She fits the bill. He's a wealthy Monmouth County Democrat, she is a Passaic County Democrat. African American. Woman. I don't think Murphy could pick another white male.

[Suburbia]

Could Phil Murphy carry his own town, Middletown, and his own county, Monmouth in the election?

[hurricanehink]

http://www.northjersey.com/news/murphy-says-he-supports-marijuana-legalization-in-new-jersey-1.1673213 - Murphy comes out as pro-marijuana. He must be anticipating a green wave this November.

[Fusionmunster]

oh lord

[Suburbia]

http://www.northjersey.com/news/murphy-says-he-supports-marijuana-legalization-in-new-jersey-1.1673213 - Murphy comes out as pro-marijuana. He must be anticipating a green wave this November.

Wow. If Christie had an opportunity at a third term, he may have slammed Murphy on this. Murphy is trying to appeal to the youth vote who may stay home and say "Governor's race? Too boring".

[Suburbia]

Another Republican who could make a run for governor is Rich Bagger, former Christie chief of staff.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/gov_christies_chief_of_staff_r.html

[Mike Thick]

Another Republican who could make a run for governor is Rich Bagger, former Christie chief of staff.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/gov_christies_chief_of_staff_r.html

That is simultaneously the best and worst name ever

[Suburbia]

Another Republican who could make a run for governor is Rich Bagger, former Christie chief of staff.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/gov_christies_chief_of_staff_r.html

That is simultaneously the best and worst name ever

Yea. Bagger is a good man. He's from Westfield, N.J., a Republican-friendly suburb. He could run against Menendez as well.

[dspNY]

Christie's approval rating in Jersey has sunk to 21%. So a Republican in an already blue state will have to run against that as well

That's like trying to throw a football in a hurricane

[BuckeyeNut]

We need you now, Rush Holt!

Agreed. We could use more knowledgeable scientists in politics. Also Quakers. Rush's both.

[kyc0705]

We need you now, Rush Holt!

Agreed. We could use more knowledgeable scientists in politics. Also Quakers. Rush's both.

[Suburbia]

New developments:

Assemblyman John Wisniewski is running for N.J. governor in 2017. (He's my assemblyman). He is more liberal than Phil Murphy, and could make it competitive.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/bridgegate_crusader_wisniewski_announces_2017_run.html

http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/new-jersey-spotlight/99434-essay-how-the-2017-nj-democratic-gubernatorial-nomination-looks-right-now

Also New Jersey resident and comedian Joe Piscopo may be running for governor. He has high name ID, he could potentially win a NJ GOP primary.

http://observer.com/2016/11/piscopo-reaching-out-to-county-party-gop-chairs-concerning-2017-guv-run/

[Gass3268]

Does any resident New Jersey residents know the views of Joe Piscopo?

[Suburbia]

Does any resident New Jersey residents know the views of Joe Piscopo?

As a NJ resident, not so much. I wonder if he is doing it because of the attention.

[Fusionmunster]

Does any resident New Jersey residents know the views of Joe Piscopo?

He was a democrat up untill 2014. He left the party because he thought the radical wing was taking over. Make of that what you will.

Edit:

Here you go. Piscopo wrote an Op-Ed about why he was leaving the party.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/14/piscopo-confessions-of-a-disillusioned-democrat/

Its not a long read.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy has the county line for virtually every major county in North, Central and South Jersey. He got the Southern lines last week and will have a Norcross endorsement soon enough, and has had support in Bergen, Essex, and other key counties for a while now. Barring a miracle or major screw-up he will win the Democratic nomination, and likely the governorship.

[Suburbia]

Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick will not run for N.J. governor this year in 2017. He probably sees the writing on the wall that he can't win the governorship. He may run for Governor in 2021 or 2025, or maybe Senate in 2018 or 2020.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/bramnick_says_hes_not_running_for_nj_governor.html

[Kingpoleon]

So:
D: Phil Murphy v. John Wisniewski v. Raymond Lesniak v. Jim Johnson(Lean/Likely Murphy)
R: Jack Ciattarelli v. unknowns; potential big names: Thomas Kean, Jr., Kim Guadagno, Randy Brown, Joe Piscopo, Geraldo Rivera, Don Guardian

[houseonaboat]

Murphy got the endorsement of a few more little-known politicians today: Cory Booker and Bob Menendez.

[KingSweden]

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

[houseonaboat]

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.