Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I'm using 538's Get Trump to 1237 tool for this

He gets 90/95 in New York, sweeps Connecticut with a majority, wins Delaware, wins Maryland and all its congressional districts, gets 11/19 in Rhode Island (proportional), all 17 WTA for Pennsylvania, loses Indiana but gets 9 delegates (3 congressional districts), wins all of West Virginia, loses Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, gets 40% of delegates from Oregon/Washington/New Mexico (all proportional), wins New Jersey, then wins California and gets 35/53 congressional districts (118 delegates). On top of this, Trump gets 30 unbound delegates out of 129, mostly from Pennsylvania but could also be from the territories. This gets him to about 1239 and thus the nomination.

What do you think? Doable. I think that is a very doable situation. Winning a state like Indiana or Montana will definitely increase his odds of being the nominee too.

Trump will get 6 delegates at most. First and seventh districts. Everything else is Cruz.

[Meclazine for Israel]

New York results make it look more likely.

People like certainty and so do delegates towards the end of a race.

If he does not get 1,237, he will be close enough to nab the unpledged delegates.

[Oak Hills]

I'm he'll just barely fall short, but pick up enough unpledgeds to win on the first ballot.

[Gass3268]

Yes, after tonight even the more conservative estimates (losing Indiana and Montana) have him over 1,237. Big wins next week and the fact that most of the PA unbound delegates have stated they will support the winner of their state/CD could clinch it.

[RI]

Trump will clinch when he wins 90%+ of California delegates. He doesn't even need that big of a victory statewide to do it.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Nope. He needed all of them and even that wouldn't be enough. -7 might not seem like much, but it's a swing of 14.

New York's done and dusted.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

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Nope. He needed all of them and even that wouldn't be enough. -7 might not seem like much, but it's a swing of 14.

New York's done and dusted.

When you are up against a fixed number rather than an opponent like Bernie Sanders is the swing remains just 7 not 14. And there was no world where Trump was getting all of them. No rational person in the world expected that. In short, you are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Seek help or you will be in for a rude awakening soon.