I think we need another NY poll. Not sure we have this thing nailed down quite yet.
50% + 1 matters. 20% matters. I believe Trump has been above 50 every single poll. Cruz has generally been below 20% in every single poll. Kasich is slightly above 20% in most polls.
Those numbers matter because 50% + 1 = complete takedown of the state delegation (14 of 95 delegates).
20% is the floor if Trump doesn't get to 50%. So you'd likely lose, Cruz.
The more Trump is > 50% statewide (the range is 50%-60% at this point), the more of the 27 CDs he takes all 3 delegates in and the fewer delegates Kasich and Cruz get.
There's also a 20% floor in each CD, but simple math likely dictates that whomever is second will meet that threshold get the 1 CD delegate if Trump is held under 50% in a three-man race.