NY-Liberty Opinion Research: Trump 52% Kasich 23% Cruz 19%

[Mr. Morden]

Liberty Opinion Research poll of New York, conducted April 6-7:

http://libertyopinionresearch.com/results-gop-presidential-primary-nys/

Trump 52%
Kasich 23%
Cruz 19%

Is there any candidate you would *NOT* vote for in November if they’re the nominee?

Cruz 23%
Trump 22%
Kasich 12%

fav/unfav %:
Trump 66/33% for +33%
Kasich 60/33% for +27%
Cruz 43/53% for -10%

[Kingpoleon]

Lots of room for Kasichmentum!

[Fargobison]

I think we need another NY poll. Not sure we have this thing nailed down quite yet.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

About time Cruz got more "Not Support" than Trump. I know it's only New York, but it's a step in the right direction for the party.

[Seriously?]

I think we need another NY poll. Not sure we have this thing nailed down quite yet.

50% + 1 matters. 20% matters. I believe Trump has been above 50 every single poll. Cruz has generally been below 20% in every single poll. Kasich is slightly above 20% in most polls.

Those numbers matter because 50% + 1 = complete takedown of the state delegation (14 of 95 delegates).

20% is the floor if Trump doesn't get to 50%. So you'd likely lose, Cruz.

The more Trump is > 50% statewide (the range is 50%-60% at this point), the more of the 27 CDs he takes all 3 delegates in and the fewer delegates Kasich and Cruz get.

There's also a 20% floor in each CD, but simple math likely dictates that whomever is second will meet that threshold get the 1 CD delegate if Trump is held under 50% in a three-man race.

[emailking]

For FL it was way more polls than were necessary since it was WTA and Trump was ahead by so much. But since NY isn't WTA, and given the precariousness of Trump's delegate situation I think all these NY polls are useful. He's flirting with the 50% threshold statewide, but each poll showing him slightly above it makes it that much more likely he'll get there. NY is pretty close if you look at it this way.