2016 Primaries Turnout Advantage Map

[RI]

Democrats already voted in Nebraska, and only had a turnout of 31,000 or so. Republicans can beat that. And the West Virginia democratic party is dead.

Democrats are also having a Nebraska primary which might get more votes than the GOP primary even though it's a beauty contest.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Okay. If it outvotes the caucus I'll use it for the map.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Man that makes for a strange electoral map. Remind me, how better are the Republicans doing with turnout versus the Democrats compared to say 2008? I'd ask for 2012, but Obama was not seriously challenged so...

I'll leave it to someone else to do 2008, but I can quickly do 2012. Listed in the order of the 2012 democratic calendar, here's everything Wikipedia has raw vote totals for:

IA: 121,501 R - 8,152 D
NH: 248,475 R - 59,185 D
NV: 32,961 R - ~13,000 D
MN: 48,916 R - 1,138 D
MO: 252,185 R - 72,923 D
OK: 286,523 R - 112,597 D
MA: 370,425 R - 141,312 D
OH: 1,213,879 R - 547,588 D
TN: 554,573 R - 90,766 D
GA: 901,470 R - 139,273 D
VT: 60,850 R - 41,629 D
AL: 622,514 R - 205,924 D
MS: 294,112 R - 97,304 D
LA: 186,410 R - 150,536 D
DC: 52,391 D - 5,257 R
MD: 311,255 D - 248,468 R
WI: 787,847 R - 298,217 D
PA: 808,115 R - 610,401 D
RI: 14,564 R - 8,069 D
MI: 996,499 R - 195,058 D
IN: 635,859 R - 210,683 D
NC: 973,206 R - 955,033 D
WV: 179,908 D - 112,416 R
OR: 287,955 R - 282,859 D
AR: 162,343 D - 152,360 R
KY: 206,134 D - 176,160 R
TX: 1,449,477 R - 585,036 D
NJ: 283,673 D - 231,465 R

Pretty Hilarious map. Republicans lost AR, KY, and WV , but won MA, RI, VT, NV, MN, and OR. In terms of electoral votes, this adds up to 246 for the Republicans and 46 for the Democrats.

If we give the gray states to the party that carried them in the 2008 GE, we get a 301-237 Republican Victory.

[RI]

2008 looked like this when both sides where at least somewhat competitive:

Here's the 2008-2016 "swing" map:

[/]

Turnout by number of posts on Atlas in each state's respective results threads:

[LLR]

Turnout by number of posts on Atlas in each state's respective results threads:

How did you isolate the Super Tuesday states?

[/]

^I didn't; they're all at 60% R. That's why states like Mississippi are Democratic (due to the close Michigan race in the same thread between Sanders & Clinton), etc.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans win Nebraska, Democrats win West Virginia. I used the beauty contest for NE D because it easily outdid the caucus in terms of turnout. If the Republicans don't win KY next week, they won't reach 270 until South Dakota and Montana vote on the 7th.

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet

If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 269 EVs to the Democrats 148 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republicans win the election 275-173. 98 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE:  197,430 R - 78,543 D
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WV: 241,016 D - 202,880 R
WY: No raw vote totals released

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats win Kentucky and Oregon. Republicans should surpass 270 when South Dakota and Montana vote on the 7th. Note that I may take Washington out of "green" after next week's contests if democratic turnout is high enough.

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet

If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 269 EVs to the Democrats 163 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republicans win the election 275-188. 83 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: 454,573 D - 229,667 R
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE:  197,430 R - 78,543 D
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
OR: 613,319 D - 376,025 R
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WV: 241,016 D - 202,880 R
WY: No raw vote totals released

[catographer]

The greater Democratic turnout in Kentucky and WV explains why Clinton did so poorly (much worse than expected in KY) in those states, and why the 3rd party vote was so high. All those Republicans who are registered Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

FYI I've been tracking this at the county level since the beginning of the primaries (I have yet to finish KY/OR):

I'll probably do KS & MN by CD in the next day or two. NV, IA & ME are impossible, though. Obviously states where both parties haven't had their elections yet are not colored, either, and some others may remain blank due to the fact that comparing a primary for one party to a caucus for the other party - held on separate days - will produce irrelevant comparisons.

Full-size image

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, we don't quite have final numbers for Washington, but it's close enough that I'm ready to update this. Another win for the Democrats.

Also, approximate D numbers from Maine here: http://www.wmtw.com/politics/maine-democratic-caucuses-underway-sunday/38370544

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet

If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 269 EVs to the Democrats 179 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republicans win the election 275-188. 83 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: 454,573 D - 229,667 R
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: ~46,000 D - 18,627 R
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE:  197,430 R - 78,543 D
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
OR: 613,319 D - 376,025 R
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: 785,785 D - 589,442 R
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WV: 241,016 D - 202,880 R
WY: No raw vote totals released

[Boston Bread]

Nice coincidence that the two most dem states also never voted for FDR.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everything went as expected: MT/SD for the Republicans, CA/NM/NJ for the democrats. Republicans cross 270 EV's. If primary turnout proves predictive this year, our next president is Donald Trump.

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet

If this were to be the actual GE map, Donald Trump would win the election, 275 EVs to Hillary Clinton's 245 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Trump victory margin is 281-254. 3 EVs are from DC, which hasn't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CA: 3,475,720 D - 1,560,820 R
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: 454,573 D - 229,667 R
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: ~46,000 D - 18,627 R
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
MT: 154,810 R - 123,726 D
ND: No raw vote totals released
NE:  197,430 R - 78,543 D
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NJ: 859,823 D - 438,295 R
NM: 214,307 D - 104,029 R
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
OR: 613,319 D - 376,025 R
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
SD: 66,877 R - 53,004 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: 802,754 D - 602,998 R
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WV: 241,016 D - 202,880 R
WY: No raw vote totals released

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DC for the Dems

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties

If this were to be the actual GE map, Donald Trump would win the election, 275 EVs to Hillary Clinton's 248 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Trump victory margin is 281-257.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CA: 3,475,720 D - 1,560,820 R
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: 95,565 D - 2,839 R
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: 454,573 D - 229,667 R
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: ~46,000 D - 18,627 R
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
MT: 154,810 R - 123,726 D
ND: No raw vote totals released
NE:  197,430 R - 78,543 D
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NJ: 859,823 D - 438,295 R
NM: 214,307 D - 104,029 R
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
OR: 613,319 D - 376,025 R
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
SD: 66,877 R - 53,004 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: 802,754 D - 602,998 R
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WV: 241,016 D - 202,880 R
WY: No raw vote totals released


America, if this proves predictive, best of luck in surviving the presidency of Donald Trump.

[Gass3268]

America, if this proves predictive, best of luck in surviving the presidency of Donald Trump.

I look forward to Hillary winning Kentucky, Louisiana, and West Virginia.