Cruz Would Beat Clinton

[Zache]

This is what happens when you live your life in an ideological fortress, never peeking over the ramparts. There are countless others like ExtremeRepublican out there. Otherwise normal humans who are completely disconnected from reality.

But the silent majority!

(Actually I think somebody of Cruz's ideology could be elected president, just as someone with Sanders' ideology could also. But it's not their ideologies that are holding them back - in Cruz's case it's his goddamn face and half-demonic-televangelist half-used-car-salesman personality.

Oh god, yes! I didn't want to be first to say it but I truly think Cruz is too uncanny looking to be elected president.

[Ljube]

Please,  Cruz would get destroyed.    Zero appeal beyond his base.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lyin' Ted is such a nut that he wanted to shut down the government over funding for Planned Parenthood, even after the disastrous shutdown his ilk caused in 2013. He is a complete religious fundamentalist nutjob who will be radioactive outside of the South. He only seems vaguely sane and rational as he is becoming the main vehicle by the establishment to try to stop Trump. I would hope that he would be blown out in a 1964 Goldwateresque landslide in order to put an end to his dangerous radicalism, but he would probably lose by around 7-8 points like McCain in 2008. Not to mention he has a smug repelling demeanor and that face.

[Wisconsin+17]

Yes, so disastrous that the pubbies took the senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No. Next.

[Ebowed]

Clinton losing to Lyin' Ted?  That's scary business.

[Free Bird]

So Cruz doesn't appeal outside his base but Hillary, who literally nobody likes, does, and will win invariably even with the threat of a Sanders indie campaign?

[Free Bird]

Since around this time the Democratic hive mind was insisting they would keep the Senate in 2014, I've elected to ignore outlandish statements from either side on here until at least September.

[andrew_c]

Cruz appears to be doing ok right now, but only because the Clinton machine isn't going after him.  Once that happens, he will be ripped to shreds.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

So Cruz doesn't appeal outside his base but Hillary, who literally nobody likes,

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[Sir Mohamed]

In another universe, yes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'all think you find that I predicted Cruz and Trump being the big successes of the primary race way before any of the conservatives cottoned on to the dynamics of the party in their own country.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Can we at least agree that there's no way Bernie Sanders is running as an independent?

[henster]

Is Hillary going to get the turnout she needs. She has issues with millenials, black turnout has been down across the board so far, Latinos always have poor turnout. If this is another base election I am unsure if she is going to motivate the groups she needs in order to win.

[henster]

Cruz could beat hillary. Not sure about would. Lol at people saying Cruz would get destroyed. These are the same nuts who predicted Trump would be yesterdays news and never generate traction.

He only gets destroyed if Trump really raises hell after the convention. Otherwise it'll stay close but I can't see how the heck Cruz flips enough Obama states.

I could see Cruz flipping CO and OH if its Cruz/Kasich. IA seems to have trended red as of late and I think WI could be a tossup MU Law had them tied in their last poll. With CO, OH, IA, & WI that gets him to 278.

[Virginiá]

Cruz could beat hillary. Not sure about would. Lol at people saying Cruz would get destroyed. These are the same nuts who predicted Trump would be yesterdays news and never generate traction.

He only gets destroyed if Trump really raises hell after the convention. Otherwise it'll stay close but I can't see how the heck Cruz flips enough Obama states.

I could see Cruz flipping CO and OH if its Cruz/Kasich. IA seems to have trended red as of late and I think WI could be a tossup MU Law had them tied in their last poll. With CO, OH, IA, & WI that gets him to 278.

Cruz isn't going to win WI though. He's a terrible fit, and even exit polls during the primary showed that.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Cruz could beat hillary. Not sure about would. Lol at people saying Cruz would get destroyed. These are the same nuts who predicted Trump would be yesterdays news and never generate traction.

He only gets destroyed if Trump really raises hell after the convention. Otherwise it'll stay close but I can't see how the heck Cruz flips enough Obama states.

I could see Cruz flipping CO and OH if its Cruz/Kasich. IA seems to have trended red as of late and I think WI could be a tossup MU Law had them tied in their last poll. With CO, OH, IA, & WI that gets him to 278.

I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin actually flipping to red.

[Kingpoleon]

Best Cruz map:

263: Cruz/Giuliani

[henster]

Cruz could beat hillary. Not sure about would. Lol at people saying Cruz would get destroyed. These are the same nuts who predicted Trump would be yesterdays news and never generate traction.

He only gets destroyed if Trump really raises hell after the convention. Otherwise it'll stay close but I can't see how the heck Cruz flips enough Obama states.

I could see Cruz flipping CO and OH if its Cruz/Kasich. IA seems to have trended red as of late and I think WI could be a tossup MU Law had them tied in their last poll. With CO, OH, IA, & WI that gets him to 278.

Cruz isn't going to win WI though. He's a terrible fit, and even exit polls during the primary showed that.

And Hillary is a better fit? I think Cruz would hammer her on trade all across the Midwest, she is very vulnerable on the issue. Obama never supported NAFTA and TPP wasn't even an issue.

[henster]

Best Cruz map:

263: Cruz/Giuliani

I think this the ideal map for Cruz/Kasich. I say Cruz wins whites 60-37 and black turnout is down a bit + millenials. I don't think the black share of the vote being at 15% in OH is going to happen in 2016.

[Virginiá]

And Hillary is a better fit? I think Cruz would hammer her on trade all across the Midwest, she is very vulnerable on the issue. Obama never supported NAFTA and TPP wasn't even an issue.

It's more that I think that they are both shady, but Cruz is both too conservative and too sleazy/hated. Kasich would probably have a shot though.

Politicians themselves matter (sometimes more than normal) but their agenda does too. I've always said Cruz is more of a regional candidate and I stick to that.

Finally, you have to also consider that any situation where Trump is not the nominee means a bitter, divided Republican electorate. There is no way the GOP comes out fully unified this year. This will hurt Cruz everywhere, but even more so in the Great Lake/Rust belt states. He needs all the votes he can get up there to have a shot.

[MK]

Cruz's favorables are underwater, and Hillary, her Super PACs, and the media haven't even started on him yet.  His numbers now are the highest they'll ever be.

Essentially this.  Cruz is currently surging because the public has been bombarded that he is the best hope to stop Trump.  Nobody is really paying close attention or questioning his record, attitude, ideology or experience and ability to do the job.

This.    Hes benefited from 98%  negative media of trump.  The guy is really inexperienced and shallow on policy.  Actually he takes up most of trumps positions. 

Hillary Clinton and company will easily beat him in a general election.     The guy with less votes who got the nomination .

[Minnesota Mike]

Cruz's favorables are not better than Clinton's, and you certainly can't forecast him winning at this stage (in fact, Clinton is favored). But at least Cruz winning is conceivable.

Agree with this. Still would only give Cruz maybe a 20% of beating Clinton, but that's more than the .0001% chance Trump has.

[Adam Griffin]

With Cruz, you basically give Clinton "the Blue Wall" plus Virginia. VA automatically gets taken off the table with either Cruz or Trump (and I'd argue with just about any other GOP/Dem candidate combo at this point).



Given what's left and how they'd be likely to fall...it's not an easy path:



Cruz would need to win CO, IA, OH, FL & NH...all Clinton needs are NV, NM & one other state (NH being the path of least resistance).

[MT Treasurer]

With Cruz, you basically give Clinton "the Blue Wall" plus Virginia. VA automatically gets taken off the table with either Cruz or Trump (and I'd argue with just about any other GOP/Dem candidate combo at this point).



Given what's left and how they'd be likely to fall...it's not an easy path:



Cruz would need to win CO, IA, OH, FL & NH...all Clinton needs are NV, NM & one other state (NH being the path of least resistance).

If Cruz is winning NH, he's already won the election in a landslide. NH is not more likely to flip than VA. I don't know why you're so obsessed with VA being a blue state that is more likely to vote GOP than NM, NV or NH.