Kirk Internal: Duckworth +3

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

42.7-39.6

http://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/kirk-duckworth-in-statistical-tie-new-kirk-illinois-senate-poll/

[Heisenberg]

Still relatively far out and many undecideds, who could flip the race either way, but it looks like it will be a tight race.  I hope Kirk can pull through and win.

[President Johnson]

After Ron Johnson, Kirk is the most likely Republican to lose his seat.

[IceSpear]

Releasing an internal showing you losing? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at 40% when you're an incumbent? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at the GOP floor in your state? lol

Whoever told Kirk to release this should be fired.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Releasing an internal showing you losing? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at 40% when you're an incumbent? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at the GOP floor in your state? lol

Whoever told Kirk to release this should be fired.

No typical voter will think of it that way. It was released to promote the idea that the race is close, and given that no independent poll has been released since September (yes, really), it can do that very effectively.

[IceSpear]

Releasing an internal showing you losing? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at 40% when you're an incumbent? lol
Releasing an internal showing you at the GOP floor in your state? lol

Whoever told Kirk to release this should be fired.

No typical voter will think of it that way. It was released to promote the idea that the race is close, and given that no independent poll has been released since September (yes, really), it can do that very effectively.

The "typical voter" isn't even going to see it. And any half intelligent political junkie, media member, or campaign observer that does see it should come to the same conclusions I did.

[Miles]

Splendid news!

[Vosem]

No doubt Kirk is down a lot right now. But he's a talented, savvy campaigner, and Duckworth is not. It'll take exploiting that to its fullest extent, along with a lot of luck, to win this race, but it's not impossible.

[Xing]

If a Kirk internal isn't showing him ahead, he's in deep trouble. He may wage a strong campaign (though some of his recent gaffes make that uncertain), but even so, he won't be running under favorable conditions like in 2010, so I'm definitely predicting a mid-high single digit loss for him right now.

[Mr. Illini]

Realistically +10 at this point

[Xing]

People on this forum act as if Illinois is as Democratic as Hawaii or California lol. This race is a Toss-up, maybe slightly leaning Democratic. Period.

Realistically +10 at this point

lol

If a Kirk internal isn't showing him ahead, he's in deep trouble.

Not really, considering that it's Illinois. A Republican trailing by 3 in a blue state at this point in time doesn't spell doom for them.

It really doesn't matter which state it is. His own internals show him down, and that's bad news for him. The fact that it's a blue state doesn't mean that undecideds are more likely to break for him. The opposite is probably more likely to be true. I wouldn't rate this race Safe D, but considering how many crossover votes Kirk needs, and the fact that it's not clear that he even has the potential to get a lot of crossover votes, makes me think that Lean D is where this race belongs.

[Mr. Illini]

People on this forum act as if Illinois is as Democratic as Hawaii or California lol. This race is a Toss-up, maybe slightly leaning Democratic. Period.

Yes, those are safe D states, as opposed to the classic swing state of Illinois

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Ouch, bad internal.

[Kingpoleon]

When there are so few GE polls, I'm glad Kirk did the right thing and told the people the honest situation. Counting MOE, this is a statistical tie.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

People on this forum act as if Illinois is as Democratic as Hawaii or California lol. This race is a Toss-up, maybe slightly leaning Democratic. Period.

Yes, those are safe D states, as opposed to the classic swing state of Illinois

Remember, this is going to be the Presidential map:

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the final result. Duckworth ran behind President Obama in her 2012 defeat of one of the Republicans' worst candidates in a year in which they had a ton of bad ones - the corrupt and extreme Joe Walsh. She will likely run well behind the Dem nominee this year given that she's got an actual candidate to run against.

[Gass3268]

[KingSweden]

People on this forum act as if Illinois is as Democratic as Hawaii or California lol. This race is a Toss-up, maybe slightly leaning Democratic. Period.

Yes, those are safe D states, as opposed to the classic swing state of Illinois

Remember, this is going to be the Presidential map:

..... generous even for a best-case Trump scenario.

[Mr. Illini]

People on this forum act as if Illinois is as Democratic as Hawaii or California lol. This race is a Toss-up, maybe slightly leaning Democratic. Period.

Yes, those are safe D states, as opposed to the classic swing state of Illinois

Remember, this is going to be the Presidential map:

Colorado should be colored Pub - anti-Hillary!

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich v. Clinton:

[Heisenberg]

^Kingpoleon- I would probably swap PA and ME-At Large.  Mathematically, I can't see a GOP margin of victory in ME-02 large enough to overtake the Dem margin of victory in ME-01.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Swap PA with IL , ME-At large

[Heisenberg]

Swap PA with IL , ME-At large

Of course I can't really see a Republican winning IL, but here we are talking about scenarios where the Republican somehow defies the odds and wins IL, at least I think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kirk is defeated this will be a defestating loss due to the fact hes a moderate and alot moderates are in Blue state GOPers in Senate and House.

[RINO Tom]

Wouldn't expect anything else from IL voters.