Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)
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Author Topic: Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)  (Read 19519 times)
yankeesfan
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« Reply #100 on: April 05, 2016, 05:33:35 PM »
Glenn Beck just predicted Cruz by 15% in the last half hour.  He campaigns with Cruz so he may have some inside info.  
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #101 on: April 05, 2016, 05:37:21 PM »

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yankeesfan
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« Reply #102 on: April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM »
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #103 on: April 05, 2016, 05:37:52 PM »
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:33:35 PM
Glenn Beck just predicted Cruz by 15% in the last half hour.  He campaigns with Cruz so he may have some inside info.  

That guy is just a liar.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #104 on: April 05, 2016, 05:38:21 PM »
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%
That's way better for Trump than usual late deciders.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #105 on: April 05, 2016, 05:40:22 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on April 05, 2016, 05:31:09 PM
If the exit poll is accurate, Cruz by 12 in Wisconsin is right on the bad demographics vs. something's wrong line for Trump based on national models of the primary.  It also matters how uniform Cruz's win is vs. winning the state by getting near unanimous support in WI-05 and WI-06 and tying elsewhere.

Nah... National Polls have Trump averaging around 45%. Back when Trump was averaging around 35% in national polls, he only got around 25% in Iowa. I suspect Trump doing ten percent worse in Iowa and Wisconsin is relatively normal if he then goes on to get mid-50s in New York and Rhode Island.

Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:33:35 PM
Glenn Beck just predicted Cruz by 15% in the last half hour.  He campaigns with Cruz so he may have some inside info. 

He could just be Glenn Beck though.
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swf541
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« Reply #106 on: April 05, 2016, 05:42:38 PM »
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%

So is the leak from Huffington Post a page or so wrong then if this is right, I find Trump leading late deciders by any margin bizarre.
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Donnie
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« Reply #107 on: April 05, 2016, 05:43:48 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on April 05, 2016, 05:37:52 PM
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:33:35 PM
Glenn Beck just predicted Cruz by 15% in the last half hour.  He campaigns with Cruz so he may have some inside info.  

That guy is just a liar.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #108 on: April 05, 2016, 05:44:19 PM »
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%

Not bad for Trump, but I imagine early deciders where heavy for Cruz. Probably good new for Cruz to pick up some of the CD's.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #109 on: April 05, 2016, 05:45:00 PM »
Quote from: New Canadaland on April 05, 2016, 05:38:21 PM
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%
That's way better for Trump than usual late deciders.

Wasn't the percentage of late deciders also quite low?
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #110 on: April 05, 2016, 05:45:25 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2016, 05:48:48 PM by yankeesfan »
Tucker Carlson: Cruz gets 46% of somewhat conservatives (43% of electorate)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #111 on: April 05, 2016, 05:47:33 PM »
Quote from: Runeghost on April 05, 2016, 05:45:00 PM
Quote from: New Canadaland on April 05, 2016, 05:38:21 PM
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:37:26 PM
Late deciders
Trump 38%
Cruz 36%
Kasich 20%
That's way better for Trump than usual late deciders.

Wasn't the percentage of late deciders also quite low?

I think it was 25%.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #112 on: April 05, 2016, 05:53:22 PM »
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:09:25 PM
Leaked exits looks legit (HuffPost Reporter)
@ryangrim
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/717472505217294337

Cruz 47
Trump 35
Kasich 15

Sanders 53
Clinton 46

This is what he posted before OH-MO-IL-NC-FL....Numbers were rather close...

Some GOP exits:
OH: Kasich 45, Trump 38
FL: Trump 47, Rubio 28
MO: Cruz 43, Trump 40
NC: Trump 39, Cruz 35
IL: Trump 40, Cruz 33
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #113 on: April 05, 2016, 05:54:44 PM »
Seeing as Huffington Post isn't a customer of Edison Research where are they getting those numbers???
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #114 on: April 05, 2016, 05:56:40 PM »
Quote from: Fargobison on April 05, 2016, 05:53:22 PM
Quote from: yankeesfan on April 05, 2016, 05:09:25 PM
Leaked exits looks legit (HuffPost Reporter)
@ryangrim
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/717472505217294337

Cruz 47
Trump 35
Kasich 15

Sanders 53
Clinton 46

This is what he posted before OH-MO-IL-NC-FL....Numbers were rather close...

Some GOP exits:
OH: Kasich 45, Trump 38
FL: Trump 47, Rubio 28
MO: Cruz 43, Trump 40
NC: Trump 39, Cruz 35
IL: Trump 40, Cruz 33

Exactly what I remembered.  Those toplines represented the first 2 waves of exit polls reporting.  When the 3rd wave came in, they changed slightly.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #115 on: April 05, 2016, 06:07:01 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on April 05, 2016, 05:54:44 PM
Seeing as Huffington Post isn't a customer of Edison Research where are they getting those numbers???

Presumably a leak from someone at one of the networks.  The people at the networks themselves never publicly release those #s, as they'd get in trouble.  Instead, they leak the info to people at, e.g., HuffPo.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #116 on: April 05, 2016, 06:10:08 PM »
Apparently Trump people are claiming their votes are being switched to Cruz.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #117 on: April 05, 2016, 06:11:09 PM »
Wisconsin Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch voted for Cruz
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #118 on: April 05, 2016, 06:12:27 PM »
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Fargobison
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« Reply #119 on: April 05, 2016, 06:15:10 PM »

You know Trump is losing when the conspiracy theories come out.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #120 on: April 05, 2016, 06:15:23 PM »
Such lies should be prosecuted by laws. It's what losers do in Africans democraties. Baseless claims of fraud.

I'm pretty sure they received an hefty payment a few days ago to say those lies.
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The Free North
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« Reply #121 on: April 05, 2016, 06:16:06 PM »
Quote from: Fargobison on April 05, 2016, 06:15:10 PM

You know Trump is losing when the conspiracy theories come out.

Reminds me of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWRHgTgF75o
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #122 on: April 05, 2016, 06:20:02 PM »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #123 on: April 05, 2016, 06:22:58 PM »
http://unitedmediapublishing.com/

I have a hard time seeing this as a credible source.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #124 on: April 05, 2016, 06:23:09 PM »
I'm sticking to my predictions of Trump winning Wi-3 and 7
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